Fantasy Baseball: Evaluating Targets to Buy and Sell
The buy-low/sell-high fantasy baseball column is a tried and true classic. This one will be a little different, however. It can be difficult to get other owners to actually give up Manny Machado simply because he’s hitting .210 through two months, so let’s take a different tack.
In this column, there will be a few buy-low/sell-high candidates covered, but they will be names that other players in your league may actually be looking to move either because they are struggling to an even greater extent, or there are worries about injuries, age, etc.
There will also be buy-high/sell-low candidates covered, as it is always important to zig when folks are zagging in your league. There comes a time when a certain player simply has to be parted with, and on the flip side of that, certain players have been off to seemingly unsustainable hot starts in 2017, but the numbers suggest they can actually keep it up. These are the types of moves that can be harder to pull the trigger on but are more likely to draw actual interest from fellow league mates.
Each slide will have 3-4 players on the page, coming from a variety of different tiers of 2017 rankings. Each player will have the reasons they might be able to be acquired as well as the reason you should actually target them. There will also be an approximate price you will have to pay (or should start the negotiations with) to acquire said player.
No two leagues are the same of course, but this article should give you some feel of players to keep an eye on in terms of making a move for, as well as players you should be avoiding if they pop up in your trade inbox. (Statistics through Tuesday’s games.)
Buy Low
This is the hardest section to write. Buy low has become such a common strategy in fantasy baseball that it’s hard to actually get any real value when targeting struggling MLB players. Fantasy players have their radar up when anyone tries to swoop in and acquire their players at a discounted price. That being said, here are some names who you can get for maybe 80-85 percent of their original value, but still might be worth the move.
Miguel Cabrera
Reasons why owners might be worried: Fantasy baseball is the most ageist industry outside of Hollywood and Miggy is 34; (perceived) injury risk; tough home park.
Reasons you shouldn’t be: Highest hard hit ball rate of his career; highest line drive rate of his career; due for both BABIP and HR/FB positive regression.
Make move for what price: 90 cents of the dollar (Daniel Murphy, Xander Bogaerts).
Carlos Gonzalez
Reasons why owners might be worried: Lowest OPS of career; not the most consistent year-to-year performer; crowded Rockies’ lineup.
Reasons you shouldn’t be: Only hitting .238 with two homers at home, Coors will get him getting sooner than later; batted ball profile quite similar to 2016 but getting bad luck on home runs; starting to get hot (.890 OPS over past 19 games).
Make move for what price: 70 cents on the dollar (Justin Upton, Mark Trumbo).
Reasons why owners might be worried: Just has never been a sexy fantasy option; lowest ISO since rookie season; Seattle offense struggling as a whole.
Reasons you shouldn’t be: One of the most consistent year-to-year performers in fantasy; HR/FB rate nearly half of 2016 despite only two percent drop in hard hit ball rate; actually hitting more fly balls than ever before.
Make move for what price: 85 cents on the dollar (Dee Gordon, Eric Hosmer).
Nick Castellanos
Reasons why owners might be worried: Lack of true breakout season throughout career; .208 batting average despite a .272 BABIP; lower slugging percentage than Dee Gordon…
Reasons you shouldn’t be: At some point his 25.7 percent line drive rate and 47.2 percent hard hit ball rate have to produce some results, right?! By Statcast’s xwOBA, he has been the unluckiest player with regular playing time in 2017.
Make move for what price: 65 cents on the dollar, but only because you can get him that cheap (Jason Heyward, Aaron Altherr).
Sell High
The ying to the yang of “buy low,” these are the players who have been off to fast starts but when you offer them in trades prospective trade partners are skeptical of whether the results will last. That’s why it’s important to select players who are not only off to fast starts but also have some pedigree (which is why Avisail Garcia didn’t make this list). Of course, you still need to find the ones who you don’t have full faith in maintaining their success. Once again, it’s a very fine line.
Xander Bogaerts
Reasons why others might be interested: Bogaerts is a young, sexy name who is hitting .339; the Red Sox lineup is piping hot right now and seemingly finding their groove; shortstop can still be a tricky position to fill at times.
Reasons you should look to move on: The batting average is nice, but it’s riding a .397 BABIP to be at that level and he should settle below .300 when the regression hits; Bogaerts relies too heavily on his BA for value, as his ISO has only been above .150 once in his career; his fly ball rate is at a career low, which means expecting some more home runs could be a dangerous game; third-highest overperforming regular by xwOBA.
Make move for what price: 110 cents on the dollar (Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager).
Reasons why others might be interested: Seemingly “proving it” after breakout 2016 season with a .345 batting average and 11 combined homers and steals; eligibility at two key positions (SS, 2B) gives added flexibility and value.
Reasons you should look to move on: Whole slash line being supported by .399 BABIP that is way out of line with 17.1 percent line drive rate; once the average slips, he doesn’t have the power to make up for it, and the stolen base opportunities will evaporate as well.
Make move for what price: Start by looking for a higher return (i.e. Matt Carpenter), but go as low as 90 cents on the dollar (Khris Davis, Andrew Benintendi).
Reasons why others might be interested: Top five in both runs and batting average; has pop too, with 12 homers and 25 RBI; hits at the top of a (quietly) loaded Rays’ lineup.
Reasons you should look to move on: Simply put, only one regular (Marwin Gonzalez) has out performed his wOBA by a greater margin (per Statcast) in 2017 than Dickerson; his plate discipline is sketchy at best, with the highest O-Swing rate in all of baseball.
Make move for what price: Well, he only cost a late-round pick, so flipping him for anything above that would be a win. There will be some doubters though, so you may have to settle around 125 cents on the dollar (Eric Thames, Ender Inciarte).
Aaron Altherr
Reasons why others might be interested: If there’s one thing fantasy players love it’s potential breakout star in his first full season and Altherr fits the bill; can contribute in all five categories (8 HR, 3 SB, .302 BA, 52 runs+RBI); has the “under-the-radar” vibe of a guy playing in Philadelphia.
Reasons you should look to move on: Altherr isn’t actually that young (26), and he has proven rather pedestrian in his MLB stints before this season; he’s another guy riding a high BABIP (.378) with a sub-20 percent line drive rate; 25.0 percent HR/FB rate is way out of line with career minor league numbers.
Make move for what price: I’d rather have the guy on either side of him in the ESPN ownership rankings right now: Scott Schebler and Justin Smoak.
Buy High
“Buy high” is a relatively new phrase when it comes to fantasy baseball. It makes sense though. There are certain players who start the season red hot and, naturally, owners try to flip them. Some of those players make sense to stay away from, while others make perfect sense to target. There are several players who their owners will simply be too far in love with to allow you to have reasonable trade negotiations (think Michael Conforto, Aaron Judge, and Ryan Zimmerman), but there are others where you can make the owner think you’re a fantasy rube who doesn’t know what she/he is doing, but you actually have them right where you want them.
Reasons others might think they should sell: History of concussions for a catcher is never a good sign; wRC+ is currently 70 points higher than his career rate; has a smaller sample size (34 games) than some of the other fast starts.
Reasons you shouldn’t be worried: Avila is all over the Statcast leaderboards this season, best summarized by the fact that he has the straight-up best xwOBA among all MLB players in 2017; he has nearly doubled his fly ball rate from last season; his 57.4 percent hard hit ball rate is (by far) the highest in all of baseball; he has hit only two balls all season that FanGraphs has classified as soft contact – he’s absolutely puring the ball this season.
Make move for what price: You could totally give up Matt Wieters or Welington Castillo for Avila and reap the benefits. Wieters might even get you a side piece in the same deal.
Yonder Alonso
Reasons others might think they should sell: Already above his previous career-high in home runs; one of those long-time prospects that people can get roped into over and over again only to have him peter out part way through the season.
Reasons you shouldn’t be worried: Alonso is one the biggest success stories for the “elevate your swing” revolution going on in baseball. His 0.49 ground balls per fly balls rank fourth among players with at least 100 plate appearances, and this is just one season after posting a 44 percent ground ball rate. The power is here to stay.
Make move for what price: Many owners may have stumbled onto Eno Sarris’ piece that said as much about Alonso, so he might be tougher to pry away, but Alonso is still owned in fewer than 50 percent of ESPN leagues, so someone like Matt Holliday might get the job done.
Justin Smoak
Reasons others might think they should sell: He’s Justin Smoak.
Reasons you shouldn’t be worried: Despite being Justin Smoak, Smoak has actually been legitimate with his production in 2017. He’s striking out about half as much as he was in 2016, and his batting average is up 66 points despite having a lower BABIP this season; the power has always been there, and he’s hitting the ball harder than in any season past.
Make move for what price: I’ve never been a fan of Yasmany Tomas, so if you can convince a fellow leaguemate that Tomas is just having a slow start, that’s a good option. Or selling high on Aaron Altherr (as recommended earlier) would work.
Sell Low
This is arguably the most intriguing category. You probably have several players who you spent a decent pick on, but they are driving you crazy with their lack of production. Of that group, these are the guys who you should actually start to look to move. These are the players who others might be targeting as buy-low candidates, but that “positive regression” simply isn’t coming. Or isn’t coming in as strong a fashion as would be needed to get real value from these former top guns.
Reasons others might still believe: This is a 23-year-old who hit 33 homers and stole 14 bases last year; he does still have 12 combined homers and steals; his hard hit ball rate is right in line with last year.
Reasons you should look to move on: I’ll be upfront – this could be a case of confirmation bias. I was fully out on Odor before the season and thought that this type of season was a distinct possibility. His plate discipline is simply heinous (nearly five times as many strikeouts as walks in his career) and at some point the Rangers are going to tell him to stop getting caught stealing so much (his 54 percent success rate is historically bad). He’s not going to have an OPS of .607 for the entire year, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a .225 average with less than 25 homers.
Make move for what price: If you can get 80 cents on the dollar for him (Anthony Rendon, Khris Davis), jump on it in a heartbeat.
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Kyle Schwarber
Reasons others might still believe: Schwarber was about as sexy a name in fantasy baseball as you could find before 2017. He was on the most famous team in the sport right now and was fresh off a World Series performance in which he managed to raise the bar even higher for his career expectations. He was possibly going to play behind the plate, and catcher eligibility was just about the only thing that could make his potential even greater in the world of fantasy baseball.
Reasons you should look to move on: The hype doesn’t match the drapes. Schwarber is hitting just .174 this season, and with a line drive rate of 12.4 percent, that figure might not be due for as much positive regression as you might think; he isn’t hitting the ball as hard as his rookie season, and he really doesn’t have a proven track record of top-level success at the major league level; the Cubs are deep enough that they can find ways to replace Schwarber’s at bats if he continues to struggle, and he has already been moved down the lineup in an attempt to light his fire.
Make move for what price: If you can get Kendrys Morales for Schwarber right now do it so fast your own head spins.
Reasons others might still believe: Peraza was a hot target before the season, and he has indeed stolen 12 bases so far this season; with the way he was trending before the season, he cost a pretty penny and that might stick in people’s minds, especially those who don’t follow the sport day-in and day-out.
Reasons you should look to move on: Peraza is showing the danger in picking a player who relied on a lofty BABIP (.361 in 2016) to make a name for themselves. His .626 OPS is as empty as it looks, and there aren’t too many signs that it’s going to improve that much. Peraza is hitting fewer line drives and hitting the ball softer in 2017 and his BABIP (.294) simply doesn’t have that much room to improve.
Make move for what price: If you want to make a hard transition from steals to power, Joey Gallo is an interesting target. If you still need steals, someone like Aaron Hicks might be a good player to target.
Reasons others might still believe: Even in 2016, 15 homers and 25 steals will catch people’s eye, especially when it comes with an improved walk rate; Herrera is just 25 and, like Altherr, has that hip, under-the-radar feel of a player laboring on a bad team – fantasy player eat that right up.
Reasons you should look to move on: The improvements in walk rate from 2016 have completely evaporated and his plate discipline is worse than ever. His swinging strike rate is up four percent in 2017, while his swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone is up over eight percent; his improved HR/FB rate from 2016 is beginning to look more and more like a fluke and less like actual progress.
Next: Severino making his case as Yankees ace
Make move for what price: I think you just have to cut him, dude. Maybe look to add someone like Jed Lowrie, Steven Souza, or Max Kepler. Even Tommy Pham and Jorge Bonifacio are more interesting if it’s a much deeper league.