Home Run Derby bracket released: Who wins it all?

With the All-Star break nearing, MLB fans look forward to one of the greatest festivities in baseball, the Home Run Derby.

We’re just three days away from the MLB All-Star break, which begins Monday, June 10. This season the game’s stars head to South Beach and play in Miami. On Monday, the Home Run Derby takes place. MLB released the Home Run Derby bracket on Wednesday.

The 2017 Home Run Derby features seven first-timers and the defending Home Run Derby champion Giancarlo Stanton.

Last season in San Diego, Stanton defeated Todd Frazier (2015’s Home Run Derby champion) in the championship round to take the trophy. En route to victory, Stanton hit a record-breaking 61 home runs.

Stanton looks to take home the crown again in 2017 at his home park, Marlins Park. The only other MLB stars to win the Home Run Derby in back-to-back seasons are Ken Griffey Jr. and Yoenis Cespedes.

However, Stanton won’t have an easy shot at winning again this year. His competition includes the Yankees’ Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge, the Twins’ Miguel Sano, the Royals’ Mike Moustakas, the Rockies’ Charlie Blackmon, the Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger and Stanton’s Marlins teammate Justin Bour.

This year’s Home Run Derby offers a view at some of the game’s best young players. Seven out of the eight participants are younger than 30 years old. Judge and Bellinger are in their rookie seasons. Can anyone beat Stanton’s 61 home runs? Can anyone take away his crown?

Let’s break down the Home Run Derby bracket and predict who wins it all in 2017.

No. 1 Stanton v. No. 8 Sanchez

As mentioned earlier, Stanton won the 2016 Home Run Derby at Petco Park. He smacked a record 61 home runs. One of MLB’s most feared hitters, Stanton showed how well he can do in the Home Run Derby. So well that he earned the number-one seed in the 2017 Home Run Derby.

The 28-year-old has hit 231 home runs in his eight big league seasons. In 2017, Stanton has hit 23 homers. He has a shot to set a new career high in home runs. The most Stanton has hit in a season is 37 in 2012 and 2014. The big slugger is tied for the seventh-most home runs in baseball this season.

Opposing Stanton is Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez. The 24-year-old exploded onto the scene last season when he hit 20 home runs in just 53 games. His stellar play in 2016 earned him consideration for AL Rookie of the Year honors. He finished second behind Tigers pitcher Michael Fulmer.

Sanchez has 13 home runs in 2017. He has the lowest amount of anyone in the Home Run Derby. Sanchez missed almost a month of the season with a biceps injury. Despite the lack of homers in 2017, Sanchez should still impress in the derby.

Though not everyone’s happy about Sanchez’s invitation. Rays first baseman Logan Morrison expressed his displeasure with Sanchez receiving an invite to the event. Morrison has 24 home runs in 2017.

Who moves on? 

Expect Stanton to put on more of a display than he did in 2016. He’ll put on a great show for his home fans in Miami.

Stanton moves on to the second round with relative ease. No worry for Sanchez, as this more than likely won’t be his last Home Run Derby.

No. 2 Judge v. No. 7 Bour

The league leader in home runs in 2017, Aaron Judge takes the two-seed and squares off against Miami’s own first baseman Justin Bour.

Judge entered the 2017 season with a very short leash. After a disappointing short stint in the majors in 2016, Judge proved he was ready for the big leagues with his play this season. As the season turns toward the All-Star break, Judge looks like the favorite for AL MVP at the moment.

The 26-year-old has 29 home runs and recently put himself into the Yankees’ history books. His 29th home run tied Joe DiMaggio‘s Yankees rookie record for home runs in a season. Judge looks destined to break that record. Perhaps before the All-Star break.

Despite Judge’s strength and high expectations, don’t count out Bour just yet. Bour has 19 home runs on the season.

Maybe Bour can put on a show for his hometown crowd. Playing in Marlins Park on a regular basis plays to his advantage.

Who moves on? 

With the way Judge has hit this season, one can’t bet against him. Tough luck for Bour, as he faces the hottest home run hitter in all of baseball.

Judge moves on to the next round. The only way Bour pulls the upset is if Judge overthinks it, tenses up and fails to capitalize on his time. That’s not likely, though.

No. 3 Bellinger v. No. 6 Blackmon

Like Judge, Cody Bellinger broke out onto the scene this season as a rookie hitting home runs. The 21-year-old stands tied for the NL lead in home runs with 24.

Los Angeles didn’t expect Bellinger to stay in the big leagues for long in 2017. The Dodgers brought him up to carry some playing time while Adrian Gonzalez dealt with a DL stint. His performance with the Dodgers gave manager Dave Roberts an easy decision to keep him with the club.

The rookie has cooled off a bit of late. He hasn’t hit a home run since June 25 when he hit two against the Colorado Rockies. Although that shouldn’t make much impact on his performance in the Home Run Derby.

Bellinger squares off against a division rival foe in Charlie Blackmon. With 18 home runs on the season, Blackmon is just 11 home runs shy of his career high (29).

Blackmon plays at Coors Field in Colorado where the ball flies. Even with that, he only has four more home runs at home than he does on the road. Marlins Park doesn’t play as a hitter’s park, but that shouldn’t affect Blackmon’s chances.

The biggest age gap occurs in this matchup, a 10-year age difference between the two hitters. Blackmon is the only hitter over 30 in the Home Run Derby.

Who moves on?

The first upset of the Home Run Derby happens in this round. Blackmon knocks out Bellinger in a close battle. The lack of experience in the major leagues hurts Bellinger. Even though both are new to the Home Run Derby, Blackmon gets the upper hand.

No. 4 Moustakas v. No. 5 Sano

Another division rival battle takes place in the first round. This time the Royals’ Mike Moustakas takes on the Twins’ Miguel Sano.

Moustakas now sits tied with George Springer for the second most home runs in the major leagues this season with 25. He surpassed his career-high home run total already. His previous high was 22 in 2015.

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The Royals third baseman missed almost all of the 2016 season with a torn ACL. His home run total looks even more impressive after the injury last season. Many didn’t know how Moustakas would bounce back from a missed season.

Sano has five fewer home runs than Moustakas, but don’t count the powerful slugger out. His home ballpark at Target Field plays more as a pitcher’s park. That doesn’t matter to Sano, who still hits them out.

The Twins slugger owns the second highest average exit velocity in MLB. He sits behind Judge in that category. His average exit velocity is 95.2 mph.

Who moves on?

Sano squeaks out a narrow victory over Moustakas. This might be the toughest matchup to predict. Sano earns the edge based on his power background. Moustakas might own the upper hand in stamina, though, which plays a big role in the Home Run Derby. Sano wins by one homer.

The Second Round

With Stanton, Judge, Blackmon and Sano moving on to the second round, that leaves matchups of Stanton v. Sano and Judge v. Blackmon.

In a perfect scenario, Stanton and Judge come out of the second round and face off in the championship round. They are two of the biggest specimens in baseball. They both hit the ball far and with incredible exit velocities. That remains the ideal Home Run Derby outcome for MLB. But will that happen?

Nope. Stanton beats out Sano and moves on to his second straight Home Run Derby championship. He goes for back-to-back championships in his home ballpark. He won’t face Judge, though.

Blackmon comes out of nowhere to knock out Judge and stun the crowd in Miami. The Rockies star knocks out the two rookies in the derby, thus leaving us a championship matchup with Stanton and Blackmon.

Next: Moustakas and Turner win ASG final vote

The Championship

With Blackmon rolling hot with two upsets, he can’t pull off a third against Stanton. Stanton’s power proves too much and he wins another Home Run Derby. He becomes the third hitter ever to win the Home Run Derby in back-to-back years.

No matter the result, this looks like one of the best Home Run Derby lineups ever.