NL MVP race has several contenders, but one stands above the rest

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The National League may not have as many teams competing for a playoff spot as the American League, but it has plenty more players contending for the MVP this year. Several guys are worthy of the honor, but there is one who is ahead of the rest this far into the season.

Unlike the American League MVP race, which is essentially down to three players, the National League has more than a handful of contenders. With nearly two months left in the season, there are arguably seven or eight guys that could take home the hardware.

Competitors have struck monstrous home runs, demonstrated their defensive prowess and delivered clutch performances. But only one can prevail, even if multiple players deserve the honors.

This season is unlike any other.

It is rare to see an NL MVP race where one player completely dominates the league to which no one can compare, which is why 2015 was such an outlier. Bryce Harper notched a historic season that year, even though his team failed to make the postseason.

In other seasons, races were much closer. Clayton Kershaw beat out a group of sluggers in 2014, while Andrew McCutchen edged Paul Goldschmidt in 2013.

But in those years, it was typically a two-horse race. That’s why this season is more fun to analyze, and surely heated debates will break out in the coming weeks.

After breaking down how each player won the honors in their respective years, it seems that one statistic overshadows the rest of them: wins above replacement. Ultimately, most categories contribute to a player’s overall WAR, hence why it makes sense to base the voting process on that statistic.

Just look at the winners of the award since 2012 and how they fared against the second-place vote-getter in some categories. (These are all NL statistics.)

(WAR = wins above replacement, OPS = on-base percentage + slugging percentage, RC = runs created)

2016: Kris Bryant (1st WAR, 4th OPS, 3rd RC), Daniel Murphy (13th WAR, 1st OPS, 7th RC)

2015: Bryce Harper (1st WAR, 1st OPS, 1st RC), Paul Goldschmidt (2nd WAR, 2nd OPS, 3rd RC)

2014: Clayton Kershaw (1st WAR, 1st ERA), Giancarlo Stanton (3rd WAR, 2nd OPS, 2nd RC)

2013: Andrew McCutchen (2nd WAR, 6th OPS, 5th RC), Goldschmidt (3rd WAR, 1st OPS, 2nd RC)

2012: Buster Posey (1st WAR, 2nd OPS, 4th RC), Ryan Braun (3rd WAR, 1st OPS, 1st RC)

Of course, there are several other categories that are also used to determine the winner. This just shows how anyone who leads the league in WAR has a higher chance of being deemed the victor.

It makes sense to give the MVP to a member of a winning team. Last year, Kris Bryant just happened to be the best player for the World Series champions.

Voters rarely give the award to players on teams that failed to make the postseason, although they have realized one man can’t make a team. Since 2000, just three MVP winners played for teams that didn’t qualify for a playoff berth.

2015: Bryce Harper

2008: Albert Pujols

2004: Barry Bonds

2001: Barry Bonds

All of this year’s contenders come from winning teams, except one. Nonetheless, all of the players can make a valid argument for why they deserve to claim this prestigious award.

(Note: All statistics used are prior to Aug. 13.)

Cody Bellinger

He’s a phenom, a slugger and the leader in the Rookie of the Year conversation. But the 21-year-old first baseman that’s taken MLB by surprise might not stop there.

An All-Star in his first year, Cody Bellinger boasts insane numbers for a guy who missed essentially the first month of the season. So far, he owns a .274/.350/.620 slash line in 358 at-bats – he has fewer at-bats than 51 other NL players, just for context.

But what’s gathered fans’ attention are Bellinger’s bombs, as he sits in second in the NL in home runs. He is just one away from tying the Dodgers’ rookie record for homers, and he still has more than a month to accomplish that.

His fielding skills aren’t too shabby either. He split time in the outfield prior to Adrian Gonzalez’s injury – I don’t think fans are complaining – but has thrived at first base, accumulating four defensive runs saved.

Clearly, Bellinger will claim the Rookie of the Year award, unless he gets hurt within the next few days. Even then, he could still make his case, as his only competition comes from a few Rockies pitchers and Pirates first baseman Josh Bell.

In terms of his MVP chances, though, it doesn’t look as likely. While he may continue to smack home runs, he probably won’t catch up to the other contenders in WAR. He currently ranks 17th in the NL in the category.

Bellinger will remain a crucial piece of the Los Angeles team as it attempts to return to the World Series for the first time since 1989. It should be fun to watch the young up-and-coming star under the lights in October.

Joey Votto

Among a field of contenders that are dipping their toes into the MLB waters – *ahem* Cody Bellinger – or continuing their rise into stardom, Joey Votto is the old dog with no new tricks.

Patience at the dish is his cornerstone and always has been. Votto ranked in the top 10 in walks in all but one season since 2010, with 2013 being the exception. His career stats in the category are somewhat ridiculous, as the first baseman has just 108 more strikeouts than walks overall.

Votto boasts power, too, and lots of it. He’s pieced together eight seasons with 20 or more home runs, garnering a .542 career slugging percentage in the process.

At 33 years old, he still has a shot at some of the Reds’ all-time records. He sits fewer than 150 walks behind Pete Rose for most walks in a Reds uniform and ranks fifth in all-time homers, a hefty 147 bombs behind Johnny Bench for No. 1.

Cincinnati won’t be playing for an NL pennant any time soon, but Votto should still have a solid chance at becoming this year’s MVP.

The Canadian star ranks in the top 10 in batting average, home runs, slugging percentage and RBI. He ranks first in on-base percentage and OPS. His WAR is the second-best in the NL.

Votto’s only weak point on the field is his defense. So far in 2017, he has cost the Reds more runs than he’s saved. But he’s never been much of a defender in the first place.

If he keeps up his torrid stretch at the plate, the left-handed slugger has a chance to claim the award for the second time in his career. So far, his numbers this year trump his MVP numbers from 2010.

2010 (150 games played): .324/.424/.600, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 16 SB

2017 (through 117 games): .316/.446/.605, 31 HR, 83 RBI, 3 SB

Paul Goldschmidt

If there was ever a year that Goldschmidt deserved recognition for how great of a player he is and how crucial of a component he is for the Diamondbacks, this would be the year.

He should be considered as the most underrated player in the game, solely because he doesn’t receive the publicity he deserves. His numbers from the past five seasons speak for themselves.

2012: .286/.359/.490, 20 HR, 82 RBI, 18 SB, 3.4 WAR

2013: .302/.401/.551, 36 HR, 125 RBI, 15 SB, 7.1 WAR

2014 (in 109 games): .300/.396/.542, 19 HR, 69 RBI, 9 SB, 4.5 WAR

2015: .321/.435/.570, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 21 SB, 8.8 WAR

2016: .297/.411/.489, 24 HR, 95 RBI, 32 SB, 4.8 WAR

He’s been just as good, if not better, this year.

Goldschmidt is one of the main reasons why Arizona has reemerged as a playoff contender. Through 115 games, he sports a .318 batting average with a .432 on-base percentage and a .592 slugging percentage – his 1.024 OPS would be a career-high.

He’s become a major threat not only at the dish, but on the bases as well. Through he might not reach 30 swiped bags this year, he still has 16 thus far, more than any other first baseman in the entire MLB.

There are two main reasons why Goldschmidt leads the MVP race at this point.

First, he leads the league in WAR, and as noted earlier, that gives a player a notch above the rest of the field. Second, he truly is the most valuable player for the D-Backs, and has been since his first full season on the club. Fans and analysts could argue that players like Bellinger and Harper aren’t their team’s most valuable stars – Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer may ring a bell.

But for Goldschmidt, that isn’t the case. At only 29 years old, the first baseman already ranks second in the all-time Arizona record books for career home runs, hits, RBI and extra-base hits. If he stays in the desert for a few more seasons, he’ll sit atop all of those categories.

Nearly six years after his lone postseason appearance, Goldschmidt could return to the playoffs this season. And he might be carrying an MVP award with him by year’s end.

Bryce Harper

If the league handed out an MVH – most valuable hair – award, clearly Harper would win in a landslide. Too bad that accolade doesn’t exist yet.

Coming off a disastrous 2016 campaign, the right fielder needed to prove himself again, not only to Washington fans, but baseball watchers in general. The preposterous numbers Harper put up two years ago couldn’t have been a fluke, could they?

Well, sure enough, the current face of baseball quickly put any doubts to rest. By the end of April, the left-handed slugger already swatted nine bombs while hitting .391 and sporting a gaudy 1.281 OPS.

No fans could expect Harper to keep up that pace – sorry, this isn’t 2015 again. Nonetheless, he’s still had a terrific campaign at the dish. Through 106 games, the right fielder posted a .326/.419/.614 slash, better than most hitters in the NL.

Yet against other consistent hitters like Votto, Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, Harper’s chances to claim his second MVP in three years are not as high as they probably should be. He ranks just seventh in the NL in WAR.

That goes without mentioning the devastating injury he suffered Saturday against the Giants. Luckily, for the Nationals and baseball fans alike, he is slated to return later this year.

Nationals GM Mike Rizzo: Bryce Harper has "significant bone bruise" but no ligament damage. "We feel we dodged a bullet."
— Gabe Lacques (@GabeLacques) August 13, 2017

Prior to banging up his knee, he could have gone on a hot stretch to end the year, especially since Washington still plays 34 of its final 46 games against teams currently under .500.

But alas, Harper will probably not have a chance to claim glory once again. However, he could make up for the lost opportunity by helping the Nats claim their first World Series come October.

Nolan Arenado

Arenado stepped up to the plate, facing off against Giants closer Mark Melancon, the scored tied 5-5. With one swing of the bat, the All-Star third baseman sent Coors Field into a frenzy.

His walk-off home run capped off a brilliant individual performance from the Gold Glover and a fantastic team win over the NL West rivals. With the bomb, the young star hit for the cycle, the first in his career.

That was just one of many games in which Arenado displayed his dominance. He’s been a force nearly every time he’s stepped on the field.

While he resembles a Venus flytrap at the hot corner and receives most of his praise for his glove work, he deserves credit for his hitting skills. The 26-year-old already has three straight seasons notching more than 100 RBI – he led MLB in that category the previous two seasons.

He’s been a key catalyst in the Colorado offense since his promotion to the big leagues in 2013, and hasn’t looked back since. No player has more RBI or home runs since 2015. Sure, Coors Field helps a lot, but that’s still an incredible feat considering balls are leaving parks at a record pace.

Of all the players in the MVP field, Arenado might be the best two-way guy. He’s been a major part of the Rockies’ resurgence this season, but he also has four Gold Glove awards in four years. He’ll surely get another one this season.

Yet, his chances of taking home the MVP award aren’t as certain. He ranks third in WAR behind Goldschmidt and Votto, but his opportunity to rise in the rankings may be in jeopardy after suffering a hand injury Sunday.

He may be entering the same boat as Harper at this point in the season. Nevertheless, he’s still one of the most entertaining players to watch in the league, and will still be a critical factor should Colorado stay in the playoff picture.

Anthony Rendon, Charlie Blackmon, Justin Turner and Corey Seager

It would be unfair to discuss an MVP race without mentioning dark horse candidates. And by golly, there are a ton of them this year, more than most people would expect.

The pair of Dodgers players, Justin Turner and Corey Seager, probably have the lowest chance of winning the award.

Turner, who has put up scary numbers, missed a large portion of the season because of his hamstring. That diminishes his chances of winning, especially because he won’t have enough time to catch up in the WAR race, unless he goes on a monstrous tear to conclude his year.

Corey Seager is in the midst of a quiet, yet outstanding season. Bellinger has stolen the spotlight in Southern California, but fans shouldn’t forget who won the Rookie of the Year last year. News flash, Los Angeles: Seager has been even better in 2017.

The All-Star shortstop should eclipse his numbers from last year in just about every offensive category. He also currently ranks fourth in the NL in WAR, which could essentially put him ahead of other candidates, including his teammates Turner and Bellinger.

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It would be a huge surprise to see him in the conversation come October, but with Harper and Arenado out, he could gain some ground in the next few weeks.

Anthony Rendon and Charlie Blackmon are both having stellar seasons at the plate for teams that should earn playoff berths.

Rendon, who somehow seems to get better and better each year, is having a career year, putting up a .299/.405/.549 slash line so far. For a Nationals team that ranks second in runs scored, the third baseman has been essential. And he ranks fifth in the league in WAR.

Blackmon may get overshadowed by Arenado on the field, but he’s arguably been better than the infielder at the plate. The center fielder possesses the second best batting average in the NL and ranks fourth in OPS. His issue is his defense, as his defensive runs saved is nonexistent. He’s cost his club eight runs in the field. His WAR ranks 14th in the NL.

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The Verdict

At this point, it would seem that Goldschmidt has the lead in the MVP race because of his WAR, and because his overall offensive numbers are some of the best in the league. He ranks sixth or higher in home runs, average, on-base percentage, OPS and RBI, as well as runs created.

Following Goldy, the rest of the field should look something like this, although clearly it is up for much debate. With more than a month left in the regular season, there is still plenty of baseball to be played and more arguments to be made.

Enjoy the heated arguments and appreciate this year’s MVP race. There’s no doubt it will be one for the ages.

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