The Houston Astros owned the best offense in baseball, but their bullpen was subpar based on their MLB ranking. One issue was Ken Giles, who faltered in late-game situations, most notably in the playoffs. Who should earn the closing role next season then?
If the postseason highlighted anything about the World Series champion Houston Astros, it was that they were truly deserving of their first championship in history. But also this – the bullpen needs to improve in the upcoming season.
In an article last week, I mentioned that some of the team’s most reliable relievers went haywire in October, sporting ridiculously high ERAs. Few pitchers in the playoffs flourished overall, but it was still a surprise to see some of Houston’s best falter in the spotlight.
At the forefront of the disappointing crew was closer Ken Giles.
Ironically, Giles was arguably the team’s best stopper during the regular season. After an uninspiring first year in the Lone Star State, the right-handed flamethrower shoved in the ninth inning this year, garnering 34 saves – just four blown saves – and 83 strikeouts in 62 2/3 innings.
Despite his success in the regular season, his shoddy postseason numbers leave his role in question. Giles’ job may not be in question at this moment, simply because Houston is celebrating its championship. But if he scuffles in his first few opportunities of 2018, manager A.J. Hinch could pull the plug relatively quickly.
The front office will unquestionably attempt to sign a left-handed reliever, as Francisco Liriano was the only one listed on the roster during the postseason. He pitched a total of 2 1/3 innings in the playoffs, yielding a home run in the process.
But whether the Houston Astros pick up a reliever or not, who would take the closer’s place were Giles to fail? Hinch has several options, some in the organization and others outside of it. Some solid pitchers in this year’s free agency class – a few have closing experience – could contend with the group of relievers should the Astros’ front office pursue them.
Here are all of the possible options heading into next season.
Ken Giles
Clearly, Hinch’s confidence in the pitcher lacked during playoffs. He reverted to using starting pitchers to close out both the Yankees and the Dodgers in their respective series.
It makes sense considering Ken Giles had allowed 10 runs, including three long balls, in just 7 2/3 innings. Yet, a compelling argument can obviously be made for Giles because of his consistency throughout much of the season.
The reliever undoubtedly has electric stuff on the mound. In three complete seasons, he’s produced an 11.2, 14.0 and 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings. His command is shaky at times though, as he averaged more than three walks per nine innings in each of the previous three seasons.
He’s essentially become a Brad Lidge-esque pitcher, but possibly better. The former Houston Astros/Philadelphia Phillies’ closer used to rely solely on a mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider. Giles has limited his repertoire to the pair of pitches since being in the major leagues, and with some success.
Surprisingly, his swinging-strike percentage was higher last season than this season, per FanGraphs. But hitters struggled to make solid contact more often this year. Their line-drive rate against Giles in 2016 was 36.2 percent against his heater and 19 percent against his slider. It was much less in 2017, at 27.2 percent against the fastball and 16.2 percent versus the slide piece.
If anything, based on his numbers, Giles deserves consideration for a Comeback Player of the Year nod. His ERA dropped from 4.11 to 2.30 in the last year, while his WHIP went from 1.294 to 1.037.
Closers should be able to extinguish fires before they even begin late in any game, especially when they are critical affairs. If Giles were able to achieve that success this postseason, there would be no need for this exact conversation.
Chris Devenski
Not many baseball fans realized that Chris Devenski pitched in the MLB last season. While he finished fourth in the American League in the Rookie of the Year voting, he was rarely recognized, due to a few subpar outings as a starter early last season.
But like many pitchers this season, the right-hander was most triumphant in the bullpen. The sophomore major-leaguer heads a group of pitchers that endured a trial as a starting pitcher, only to find success once moved to the bullpen. Archie Bradley, Chad Green and Kenta Made are just a few names that flourished in a similar situation this season.
Devenski never garnered much attention in the minor leagues. He didn’t dazzle with an exciting set of pitches. Yet, once he reached the MLB, his changeup became one of the most dominant pitches in the league.
The Cal State Fullerton product enjoyed a stellar K/9 ratio in 2017, racking up nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings, thanks in part to the slow ball. Opposing hitters hit a measly .142 against it all season. His slider wasn’t bad either, as players batted a paltry .148 against it as well.
He won’t blow it by you – he maxes out at around 93 mph – and his stature won’t intimidate you. He’s become a very respected reliever in the league and was even called upon late in games to notch the save. Giles was Hinch’s go-to guy, but Devenski wasn’t far behind.
The most crucial aspect about Devenski, however, is that he can be used at any time. He can work in long relief or a situational role. His flexibility makes him a much more serious threat. But it also diminishes his chances of being placed in the closing role, unless he is absolutely needed to contribute late in games.
Anything is possible, but it seems like Hinch would instead use him in his current role – being used in any inning and any situation.
Will Harris
Will Harris boasted the team’s second-best WHIP as well at .97, once again, behind Devenski. And he’s yet another Houston Astros pitcher that possesses an above-average collection of pitches. He strikes out nearly as many hitters as his teammates, recording 10.32 whiffs per nine innings.
Hinch relied on him last season at times, and Harris didn’t let him down often. He notched 12 saves and just three blown saves. But he added 28 holds last season as well in his lone All-Star season – he sported a career-low ERA of 2.25.
One of the biggest issues with depending on Harris is his durability. He suffered a shoulder problem in August, leaving him to contribute in only 46 games this season. For some reason, Hinch limited the hurler to just six innings pitched in the postseason as well.
Harris has the pedigree, and he has the stuff. But between his experience in the closing role and Devenski’s overall dominance and versatility, the closing role would probably be decided by a coin flip if it occurred.
A Current Free Agent: Tony Watson or Greg Holland
There are two big contenders for the Houston Astros closer spot, but one gets the advantage over the other due to his left-handedness. Since there are slim pickings in this year’s free agent class, the ideal pickup for the reigning champions would be Tony Watson, who was the Pirates’ closer not too long ago.
The southpaw saved the organization when fan-favorite Mark Melancon departed to San Francisco. Tony Watson was a more revered reliever in 2014 and 2015, when he posted minuscule ERAs of 1.63 and 1.91, respectively.
Ironically, Watson was trade bait in arguably one of his worst seasons. By the end of 2017, he yielded a career-high 72 hits in just 66 2/3 innings. While in Pittsburgh, he boasted a 3.66 ERA before being dealt, which would have been his worst since his rookie season.
Then the trade to Los Angeles came, giving him another chance to establish himself as a reliable reliever. And he didn’t disappoint this year’s runner-ups.
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The lefty pitched 20 innings in the regular season for the Dodgers, whiffing 18 and limiting opponents to just six earned runs. He also surrendered only two runs in seven innings in the postseason, one of the better performances among the team’s relievers.
Most importantly, he’s a left-handed pitcher, something the Houston Astros desperately needs. So don’t be surprised if the front office makes an attractive offer to bring him to the Lone Star State.
Greg Holland, though older, could still be a valuable asset for Houston as well. After taking 2016 off, it was like the three-time All-Star never left.
The seasoned veteran has more innings under his belt as a primetime closer than several current closers in the AL. Furthermore, he proved that he can still be efficient in the ninth inning, as he settled in as the go-to guy for Colorado.
Holland was never celebrated for blow-by stuff, but his pitches were effective nonetheless. His three-pitch repertoire – fastball, slider, and changeup – helped him earn several relief honors, and arguably helped him play a significant role for the 2015 World Series champs.
At 31 years old, the right-hander compiled the second-most saves in the league at 41, tied with Kenley Jansen. And he still eclipsed the 11 strikeouts per nine innings margin, which is low compared to his career average, but still great nonetheless.
A few issues may dampen his chances of being picked up by the Houston Astros: walks and home runs. In 57 1/3 innings, he allowed 26 walks and seven home runs, which was a career-high. Granted, he did pitch 30 of his 61 games at Coors Field, yet a majority of the round-trippers he gave up were on the road.
His pinpoint accuracy may have diminished throughout his hiatus, and his stuff may not be as sharp as it once was. But there’s no doubt that Holland is still a very relevant option in the ninth inning for any team.
Next: Postseason shed light on Astros' shoddy bullpen
Thus, it shouldn’t be a surprise if Houston Astros General Manager Jeff Luhnow gives the former World Series champion a ring.