Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola put together a strong 2017 season. In 2018, he has a chance to compete for a Cy Young.
After parts of three seasons in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola has made a lot of progress. From first-round draft pick to number one starter, Nola has advanced at a good pace. By next season he has a chance to compete for the Cy Young Award.
Of course, pitching in the National League comes with its challenges. Namely, winning a Cy Young means besting Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and some other phenomenal arms.Can Nola pull it off and become one of the league’s best pitchers?
Nola turns 25 next summer. Although this is quite early to peak, it’s the perfect time to start to begin an ascent to the top of the mountain. To be clear, he won’t win the Cy Young. He won’t even finish in the top three. He will, however, piece together a season worthy of earning at least one voter’s attention.
In his 27 starts in 2017, Nola went 12-11 with a 3.54 ERA. He averaged just below 10 strikeouts per nine and finished the season with a 3.27 FIP. It was a year worthy of recognition which helped to establish him as the Phillies’ top starter. This was more than a default title. On many teams, he’d still be the number one. On the Phillies, he just happened to look that much better.
Next year, I see Nola going from the Phillies’ number one starter to a Cy Young candidate. How far can he take this prediction?
What to Expect From Nola in 2018
The Phillies will be a better team in 2018. It looks like the Miami Marlins are looking to tank, and the New York Mets are in a rebuild. The division alone will provide him and his teammates with at least a few more victories. If the Marlins do end up trading Giancarlo Stanton and a few other of its stars, Nola’s starts against them will be a lot easier.
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More wins in Nola’s pocket equals a better chance at gaining some votes in the Cy Young raise. It won’t secure him much without other numbers to back it up.
Looking at the 2016 National League Cy Young race, we get a picture of what Nola would need to finish in the top ten. Washington Nationals pitcher Tanner Roark reached the top ten with a 16-10 record and 2.83 ERA. In fact, the only National League pitcher to finish in the top ten with an ERA above 3.00 was Jake Arrieta whose ninth-place finish barely registered.
It looks like Nola’s first step is lowering his ERA. Beyond that, he’s in pretty good shape assuming he wins a few more games.
Nola’s 4.5 WAR in 2017 is better than 2016 top ten finishers, Arrieta and Jose Fernandez. Though they had superior numbers elsewhere, Nola’s 2017 WAR topped what they did. The 4.5 WAR posted in 2017 was good enough for seventh in the league. Based on that statistic alone, it looks like Nola is headed in the right direction.
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A Cy Young is not easy to win nor should we expect Nola ever to get one. Even through all of Cole Hamels’ great seasons with the Phillies, he never finished higher than fifth.
Now, this doesn’t mean Nola’s future won’t be different. As one of the more seasoned Phillies and a guy who will surely carry the rotation’s load again in 2018, it’s time for Nola to step up and remind Philadelphia what an ace looks like and do his best to bring home a Cy Young.