Washington Nationals: 2017 Season Review and Offseason Preview

What went right, what went wrong, and what are the top priorities for the Washington Nationals this offseason?

In many ways, the Washington Nationals had a very good 2017 season. They won their division by 20 games and had the second-most wins in a season in the history of the franchise. Only the 2012 team won more games. Also, the only team in the NL with more wins was the Los Angeles Dodgers.

On the individual front, two of the Nationals’ starting pitchers, Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, were named among the three finalists for the NL Cy Young Award and third baseman Anthony Rendon should join them as possible top 10 finishers in the voting for NL MVP.

Of course, it wasn’t all roses and chocolates. The Nationals made the playoffs for the fourth time in six years, but once again lost in the NLDS, just like the previous three times they made the postseason. They have the second-most wins in baseball since 2012 but haven’t won a postseason series.

Their five-game playoff loss to the Cubs this year resulted in the dismissal of manager Dusty Baker, despite back-to-back seasons with 95 and 97 wins. The new manager is Dave Martinez, who played 16 seasons in the big leagues and has been a bench coach with Joe Maddon for 10 years. Martinez takes over a club that is built to win right now. Making the playoffs is a requirement, winning a playoff series is highly recommended.

With most of the team’s top talent coming back, the Nationals are big favorites to win the NL East for the third straight year. They will be facing some added pressure, though, because this is the final year of team control over Bryce Harper and the final year of Daniel Murphy’s contract. Both can be free agents at the end of the season.

An added concern for the near future is the escalation in pay for Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg after this season. Both will see their salary increase from $15 million in 2018 to $35 million in 2019. Losing Harper and Murphy and having two pitchers increase a combined $40 million in salary will make things difficult for the Nationals in 2019 and beyond. The window for contention may be closing more quickly than they think.

Here is a look at what went right, what went wrong, and the team’s top offseason priorities.

What Went Right

The best position player on the Nationals was Anthony Rendon, who had a terrific all-around season that saw him reach career highs in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, home runs, and RBI. Rendon was also one of only five players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title who walked more times than he struck out. In a year in which the strikeout rate in baseball rose for the 13^th straight year, Rendon’s strikeout rate dropped from 18.1 percent last year to 13.6 percent this year.

Despite his terrific season, Rendon is not one of the three finalists for NL MVP. He actually led the NL in Wins Above Replacement (Fangraphs WAR) among position players. The three finalists are Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Votto, and Paul Goldschmidt, who finished second, fourth, and tenth, respectively.

Superstar Bryce Harper was in the midst of the second-best season of his career when a wet base contributed to a nasty knee injury that kept him out for six weeks. Despite only playing about two-thirds of the season, Harper finished 13^th in WAR among position players.

Second baseman Daniel Murphy continued his assault on big league pitching that began in the second half of the 2015 season (and especially that postseason) with the New York Mets. From the beginning of his career through July 31, 2015, Murphy hit .288/.332/.417, giving him a 107 wRC+. This means he was seven percent better than the average hitter when league and ballpark effects were adjusted for. Since then time, he’s hit .328/.377/.563, for a 144 wRC+. Sorry, Mets fans.

There were two Nationals who had surprisingly good seasons. One was Ryan Zimmerman, who was named the top NL comeback player by the MLBPA for his .303/.358/.573 season. He went from a terrible 2016 season in which he was below replacement-level to a 3.3 WAR season. Michael Taylor also had a three-win season, thanks to a .271/.320/.486 batting line and very good defense in center field.

Shortstop Trea Turner was a three-win player despite playing just 98 games because of broken wrist. He was one of only three players in the NL to steal more than 30 bases. Turner’s 46 steals were third in the league to Dee Gordon’s 60 and Billy Hamilton’s 59, but they both played at least 40 more games than Turner.

The Nationals had two stud pitchers at the top of their rotation in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Scherz and Stras are two of the three finalists for the NL Cy Young Award. Scherzer went 16-6 with a 2.51 ERA and 2.90 FIP in 200.7 innings. Strasburg was 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA and 2.72 FIP in 175.3 innings.

A third starter, Gio Gonzalez, was 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA but a 3.93 FIP, which suggests he had some luck to finish with an ERA under 3.00. Still, he pitched the second-most innings of any season in his career and the best ERA of his career.

The Nationals had the worst bullpen in the NL in the first half, but reinforcements came at mid-season and flipped the script. Ryan Madson (1.37 ERA in 19.7 innings) and Sean Doolittle (2.40 ERA in 30 innings) locked down the late innings. One guy who was there all season and had a surprisingly good year was Matt Albers, with a 1.62 ERA in 61 innings (3.40 FIP).

What Went Wrong

The Nationals had one of the ten best offenses in baseball but still had a major trouble spot in the lineup at catcher. Nationals catchers combined to hit .211/.276/.320 and finished with negative 1.1 WAR, worst in baseball. The bulk of the playing time went to Matt Wieters, with Jose Lobaton also playing in 51 games.

Wieters got off to a good start, hitting .301/.400/.534 in April, but struggled a bit in May and early June. Despite the struggles, he was still hitting a respectable .278/.343/.426 through June 5. From June 6 on, he hit .188/.251/.288.

Center fielder Adam Eaton was off to a good start, with a .297/.393/.462 batting line in his first 23 games. Then he tore his ACL while trying to beat out an infield hit against the Mets. The injury ended his season and, unfortunately, would not be the only injury a Nationals player suffered at first base. Months later, Bryce Harper would injure his leg when he slipped on a wet first base bag.

Right fielder Jayson Werth’s seven-year, $128 million contract ended with a whimper and not a bang this year. He only played 70 games and hit .226/.322/.393, finishing the year below replacement-level. His full-season numbers may be misleading, though, because he hit .262/.367/.446 through his first 196 plate appearances before a fractured left food sidelined him for nearly three months. He really struggled upon his return.

Some have argued that Werth’s intangibles made him worth the contract, but based on best estimates of dollar value and cost per win, he was worth about $98 million over the last seven years. That’s a $30 million deficit for the Nationals. Despite the difficult season, Werth could be brought back for another year if the price is right.

A pair of back-of-the-rotation starters, Edwin Jackson and Joe Ross, really struggled. Jackson had a 5.07 ERA and 5.88 FIP in 71 innings. Ross had a 5.01 ERA and 4.99 FIP in 73.7 innings. Adding injury to insult, Ross had Tommy John surgery in July and will miss part of next season.

In the bullpen, Joe Blanton went from being an effective middle reliever with an ERA under 3.00 in the previous two seasons to a home run allowing machine with a 5.68 ERA. It was even worse for Shawn Kelley, who allowed 12 home runs in 26 innings and finished with a 7.27 ERA and 8.62 FIP in 33 games.

Top Offseason Priorities

According to CBS Sports, the Washington Nationals had a payroll of nearly $168 million on Opening Day this season, which was ninth in baseball. They get some salary relief this season with Jayson Werth’s contract ending. He made $21 million last year and is now a free agent.

This is how the lineup and rotation look for 2018 based on their current roster, with salaries from Cot’s Baseball Contracts at Baseball Prospectus:

C Matt Wieters, $10.5 million

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1B Ryan Zimmerman, $14 million

2B Daniel Murphy, $17.5 million

SS Trea Turner, pre-arbitration

3B Anthony Rendon, arbitration-eligible (projected: $11.5 million)

LF Adam Eaton, $6 million

CF Michael Taylor, arbitration-eligible (projected: $2.3 million)

RF Bryce Harper, $21.625 million

SP Max Scherzer, $15 million

SP Stephen Strasburg, $15 million

SP Gio Gonzalez, $12 million

Washington Nationals

SP Tanner Roark, arbitration-eligible (projected: $7.5 million)

SP Erick Fedde, pre-arbitration

RP Sean Doolittle, $4.35 million

RP Ryan Madson, $7.5 million

RP Koda Glover, pre-arbitration

RP Shawn Kelley, $5.5 million

Free agents: RP Matt Albers, RP Joe Blanton, OF Alejandro De Aza, INF Stephen Drew, SP Edwin Jackson, OF Howie Kendrick, RP Brandon Kintzler, C Jose Labaton, RP Oliver Perez, OF Ryan Raburn, OF Jayson Werth

The Nationals are pretty well set with their starting lineup and most of their starting rotation. They have plenty of departing free agents so one offseason priority will be filling in the roster around the edges, like the bench, the bullpen, and the back of the rotation.

With Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez, and Roark occupying the first four spots, the frontrunner for the fifth spot is Erick Fedde, who started three games with the team this year. A.J. Cole has started eight games in each of the last two seasons, but his 4.52 career ERA is not impressive. Joe Ross is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Nationals take a chance on a cheap free agent starter.

Adam Eaton is expected to be fully healthy for next season, so he should take his place near the top of the lineup. An outfield of Eaton, Taylor, and Harper would be productive, but the team will want some outfield depth as well. There’s a chance they could bring free agents Jayson Werth and/or Howie Kendrick back.

They also have Brian Goodwin, who had 278 plate appearances with the team this year and slugged .498. An option later in the year may be young Victor Robles, who will be 21 next season, is one of the best prospects in baseball. He split time between High-A and Double-A last season and even got into 13 games with the Nationals in September. He’ll most likely start next year at Triple-A, but could become a factor in the big leagues during the season.

In early November, catcher Matt Wieters exercised his $10.5 million option for the 2018 season. His early projection for next year at Fangraphs suggest he’ll be better than he was this year, but the catcher position doesn’t project to be an asset for the Nationals. Improving at the position may be a priority for the team but they won’t want to spend much more money with Wieters making $10.5 million.

Next: Nats should not re-sign Jayson Werth

Of course, the elephant in the room is Bryce Harper. He’s in the final year of team control and will be looking for a huge contract as a free agent. The Nationals have a team that will likely make the playoffs again this year, but their future gets murky in 2019 and beyond.