We have reached the point of the offseason where prospect lists abound. We continue our top 10 prospects for every team with the Tampa Bay Rays!
Our team top 10 prospect lists at Call to the Pen are spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten prospects for the Tampa Bay Rays.
This season, we will be going through teams by division, in order of record. The AL East will be first, followed by the AL Central and AL West. Then the focus will shift to the National League in the same order.
The format will be as it was last season for the same lists, with a system review, which will include last season’s list. The top 10 will follow in reverse order, two players per page in order to give adequate space to each player. Major trades or international signings will lead to an updated top 10!
Finally, don’t go away after #1 is revealed as each list will also contain a player either signed in the 2017 international free agent class or drafted in 2017 that isn’t part of the top 10 and should be tracked. Last season’s mentions in that area made over half of the top 10s this season, so this is a great way to get to know a player who could be making a big splash in the organization.
System overview
For a few years, the Rays have been more of a middling system, ranking between #10 and #20 the last three years on my own personal list. Last year, the Rays ranked #14 in my rankings published here on Call To The Pen.
The Rays have done an exceptional job in the last two seasons re-directing their system emphasis to get top-end talent and then allowing that talent to push itself up the system rather than force time lines on players. While those absolute elite talents may not show up a ton on this top 10 right now, they do add significant depth to the farm system.
The Rays finished tied with two other teams (Angels and Royals) at 5 games out of the 2nd AL Wild Card in 2017. The system will allow them to believe that their best times are still ahead of them!
Let’s take a look at that system….
Next: #9 and #10
10. Justin Williams, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/20/95 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: AA Montgomery Biscuits
2017 Stats: .301/.364/.489, 409 PA, 14 HR, 6 SB, 37/69 BB/K
Info: Williams originally was drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2nd round in 2013 out of high school in Louisiana as one of the youngest players in the 2013 draft. He was assumed to need multiple years of rookie ball to develop, but instead, he jumped all the way up to the Midwest League in his draft season.
Injuries and pushing too fast really led to struggling over the next two seasons, spending most of his time in the Midwest League over three seasons, so rather than getting his development time in rookie ball, he got it playing in the Midwest League, first with the Arizona organization and then with the Rays after he was traded as part of the Jeremy Hellickson deal.
While the talent is obvious for Williams, his struggles to stay on the field hurt his prospect value.
After his third year in the Midwest League, the Rays sent him to the Australian Baseball League, and he completely took off from there. After hitting .342/.398/.582 in the ABL over 47 games, he hit .295/.318/.447 with high-A Charlotte and AA Montgomery in 2016.
In 2017, Williams took a significant step forward, hitting .301/.364/.489 with 38 extra base hits over 96 games. The 96 games were a concern, and that has been one of the big knocks on Williams. While the talent is obvious for Williams, his struggles to stay on the field hurt his prospect value.
Williams doesn’t have a defined spot defensively as he has more of an average arm and is an average runner, which could allow him to end up in left field eventually, but he needs to be able to remain healthy to access that incredible raw power that he displays in batting practice shows.
9. Brandon Lowe, 2B
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/6/94 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Charlotte Stone Crabs, AA Montgomery Biscuits
2017 Stats: .298/.375/.493, 468 PA, 11 HR, 7 SB, 49/91 BB/K
Info: Lowe would have gone higher than the 3rd round of the 2015 draft if it were not for the broken leg he suffered in his final game of his collegiate career, roughly a week before the draft. He was projected as a late 1st round selection or early 2nd rounder before the injury.
Coming from college, Lowe had a very strong approach at the plate with impressive bat speed and the ability to get the bat to ball. His power was average and his speed fringe average, so his primary value was going to be in his contact ability and perhaps some additional power creeping into his smooth left-handed swing.
While he hasn’t developed over-the-fence power, Lowe has developed a very consistent power swing to the gaps. He hit 39 doubles this year, spending most of the time in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. He also was 23 for nearly half of the season, so there are some concerns about how much ceiling still exists for Lowe.
He is not going to wow with the glove by any means, but he’s not a guy who will hurt the team defensively either. The Rays could push him some in 2018, hoping to see him spend much of the year in AAA Durham, with time in Tampa if he shows well in AAA.
Next: #7 and #8
8. Garrett Whitley, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 3/13/97 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Bowling Green Hot Rods
2017 Stats: .249/.362/.430, 426 PA, 13 HR, 21 SB, 57/122 BB/K
Info: Considered to be among the best all-around high school athletes available in the 2015 draft, the Rays made Whitley the 13th overall pick out of high school in New York. His relative inexperience being a cold-weather player has led to a slower development path, which means he will spend his age 21 season in high-A in 2018.
Right now the strongest tool in the shed for Whitley would be his legs. He shows both exceptional quickness and very good underway speed. He’s had little trouble handling center field due to his speed, and his instincts there have ticked up significantly, leading many to think he could handle center field on the long term.
That’s where the positives turn into question marks with Whitley. He has prodigious power in the batting cage, certainly above-average raw power, if not even plus, but he struggles to bring that power to games. He’s tinkered a bunch with his swing since coming into pro ball, and it’s notable in his lack of consistency in his swing path and approach at the plate.
This has also led to an inconsistent ability to cover the zone with his swing, and due to that, he’s found himself with heavy strikeout numbers.
The raw tools are there to be a guy who could put up very impressive power/speed numbers on offense while also playing above-average center field defense, but Whitley will likely be moved slow through the system, starting with the Florida State League in 2018.
7. Wander Franco, SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 3/1/01 (17)
2017 teams/levels played for: none
2017 Stats: none
Info: It is certainly not a negative reflection on the Rays system to see a July 2nd signee this high in the rankings. To the complete contrary, it speaks to the strength of Franco’s resume as he enters pro ball.
Franco’s bloodlines only enhance his already-impressive tools. His uncle is current MLB shortstop Erick Aybar, his father (who shares the same name) played minor league ball, and he has two brothers who are also currently in the minor leagues.
However, it’s his own raw tools that earned Franco the top rating in most places that cover the July 2nd market in the class for this past summer. Franco earned a nearly-$4 million bonus in signing with the Rays, and he gives the team three recent high-impact signees when paired with Lucius Fox and Adrian Rondon.
Franco’s bloodlines only enhance his already-impressive tools.
While Franco’s ability to make contact with the baseball is fringe-plus as is, it’s his combination of skills across the board which make him such a unique and desirable player. Franco has flashed fringe-plus power in the cage and could certainly grow into above average power. He’s presently a definite plus runner, and even adding size some in the last year hasn’t changed his speed much at all.
Defensively, Franco has sure hands, and above-average arm, and his actions at the shortstop position are solid – for now. Many worry that Franco will fill into his frame in the lower half, possibly hurting his ability to handle shortstop long-term, but his impressive hands should allow him to slide over to second base quite well.
The Rays will likely open with Franco in the Gulf Coast League and let him work his way from there.
Next: #5 and #6
6. Joshua Lowe, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 2/2/98 (20)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Bowling Green Hot Rods
2017 Stats: .268/.326/.386, 507 PA, 8 HR, 22 SB, 42/144 BB/K
Info: One of the most impressive players in the Georgia prep class in 2016, the Rays plucked Lowe in the first round with the 13th overall selection. Lowe was a rare athlete that was able to move from third base to center field when he shifted positions.
While other sources have pushed Lowe down after seeing some struggles with strikeouts in 2017 (28.6% K rate), but he also flashed all of the talent that you want to see from a teenager in his first exposure to full-season ball.
In center field, Lowe looks the part of a free safety in size and speed with his 6’4″, 200+ pound frame hulking in center and then gliding with excellent speed once underway. He still needs to work on his initial reactions, but in his first exposure to playing center field full time, he made big strides over the course of the year, and his plus arm really played well in the outfield.
Lowe likely will be handled slowly, allowing him to earn his way to any midseason promotions, otherwise going one level at a time. He’ll open 2018 in high-A most likely, and as his power begins to fill into his frame, the Rays are hoping to see him develop into a guy with legit 20/20 ability in center field.
5. Jake Bauers, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 10/6/95 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: AAA Durham Bulls
2017 Stats: .263/.368/.412, 575 PA, 13 HR, 20 SB, 78/112 BB/K
Info: After filling into his frame in 2016 and showing excellent gap power and bat control in AA at 21, Bauers was promoted to AAA in 2017, and he showed all of his best qualities, handling the advanced breaking stuff in the International League without being overwhelmed.
Bauers may not put up monster power at this point, but he is still growing into his frame, and he could turn his high doubles count into more over-the-fence power in the near future. Most likely Bauers will open 2018 in AAA again, but he certainly showed enough to move up to the big leagues for some exposure, and a strong spring could really speed up his timetable.
(Bauers) could turn his high doubles count into more over-the-fence power in the near future
Bauers is a lesser degree of what we saw from Cody Bellinger in 2017. He’s a guy who at first base is a high-level defender, with excellent reactions and good scooping ability, but he also has the athleticism and reads to handle the outfield, and his arm is strong enough to work in right field.
Bauers has a very good idea of the zone, and he shows excellent pitch recognition. He won’t be held down in the minor leagues for long with his excellent ability and the Rays offense really in need of his skill set.
Next: #3 and #4
4. Brendan McKay, 1B/LHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/18/95 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: short-season A Hudson Valley Renegades
2017 Stats: Batting: .232/.349/.376, 149 PA, 4 HR, 2 SB, 21/33 BB/K; Pitching: 6 GS, 20 IP, 1.80 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 6.8% BB, 28.8% K
Info: In a rare year with two-way draft talents, McKay was the rare talent that had a legit ability to be a top draft prospect out of college both as a pitcher and a hitter. Frequently a top two-way player in a draft is a high school player, not a collegiate player, but not only was McKay doing it in college, he was a legit first-round talent both as a pitcher and as a first baseman.
The Rays announced McKay as a first baseman when he was drafted, but it came out within 24 hours of the selection that the Rays intended to utilize McKay both as a pitcher and a hitter.
On the mound, McKay works more with pitchability, sitting in the low-90s with his fastball, but using multiple pitches well, including a plus curveball, and showing typically plus control. He has used multiple variations of his change, and while each has been effective at the collegiate level, it has shown that he isn’t exactly comfortable with any one type of changeup.
not only was McKay (playing both ways) in college, he was a legit first-round talent both as a pitcher and as a first baseman
At the plate, McKay has a lot of legit comparison to another former two-way player that had a very good career as a first baseman, John Olerud. McKay has a very smooth swing path that generates plenty of sharp contact, often more line drives than home runs, but the power is definitely there.
McKay also showed advanced skills at the plate in his batting eye, with good pitch and zone recognition at the plate.
In his pro debut, McKay was allowed to do both and made a better impression on the mound than at the plate, but he still flashed impressive power at the plate and walked in 14% of his plate appearances, while keeping his strikeout rate to a reasonable 22.1%.
He’ll see full-season ball in 2018, and it will be interesting to see how the Rays handle him. He could skip over the Midwest League and go straight to the Florida State League to stay closer to the Tampa Bay Rays coaching staff to open the season.
3. Jesus Sanchez, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 10/7/97 (20)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Bowling Green Hot Rods
2017 Stats: .305/.348/.478, 512 PA, 15 HR, 7 SB, 32/91 BB/K
Info: At 6’3″ and 210-220 pounds, Sanchez has the physical build that would make you think that he’s going to be an absolute power monster, but he has one of the most balanced skill sets in full season ball with above average to plus tools all across the board.
Sanchez played all of 2017 as a 19 year old in full-season ball, and he showed very well, driving in 82 runs in the middle of the Bowling Green lineup, a move from hitting near the top in 2016 in his stateside debut.
Sanchez profiles as a future big bopper type, but he’s a guy who really does remind me a ton of Ron Gant in his raw skill set with the ability to hit for power with tremendous raw speed and good instincts in his base running (though his base stealing still could use some coaching).
Defensively, Sanchez profiles as an elite right fielder, but he can handle center field right now with exceptional range for his size and very good initial instincts off the bat. His arm is more above-average than plus, but he does well getting behind his throws.
Sanchez will open in high-A most likely to open 2018, and if he can continue to show progress, he could find his way to the upper minors by the end of the season at just 20 years old.
Next: #1 and #2
2. Willy Adames, SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/2/95 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: AAA Durham Bulls
2017 Stats: .277/.360/.415, 578 PA, 10 HR, 11 SB, 65/132 BB/K
Info: It seems like Adames has stagnated in rankings this season simply because he didn’t “wow” evaluators. He really is not that type of player on the field, and that could allow him to slide under the radar, though he is one of the best prospects in all of the game.
Adames’ 6′ frame really led to many believing he would need to shift to third or second as he matured, due to a thick lower half naturally. Instead, Adames has filled out more in his upper body and retained his athleticism, allowing him to handle shortstop at a consistent level where he may not be a Gold Glove shortstop, but he certainly won’t hurt the team there.
However, no matter the work he can do with the glove, Adames will always draw his value from his offensive profile. Adames has lightning-quick wrists, getting the bat through the zone extremely quick, though he can at times have a bit of length to his swing entering the zone.
Once in the zone, Adames can generate elite line drive power, and if he focuses on that, he’s going to eventually develop 20-25 home run power as well as likely pounding the gaps for 30+ doubles and a handful of triples each season. Adames does have enough athleticism to steal a dozen bases a season, but he’s more valuable on the bases due to his base running than his base stealing.
Adames could make a legit push for the major leagues this spring, though there’s nowhere for him currently to play, so it will be interesting to see how the Rays handle the offseason in possibly opening a spot for him.
1. Brent Honeywell, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 3/31/95 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: AA Montgomery Biscuits, AAA Durham Bulls
2017 Stats: 26 GS, 136 2/3 IP, 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6.2% BB, 30.3% K
Info: One of the most disappointing things for me personally with the Rays in September was watching a number of players get the call to the major league club and yet Honeywell remained in AAA, even after the AAA season was done.
The Rays originally selected Honeywell out of community college in the competitive balance B round of the draft in 2014. He’s developed his unique pitch mix ever since into one of the absolute elite prospects in all of baseball.
One of the big reasons many in the Rays rotation have been in trade rumors this offseason is due to the presence of Honeywell
Honeywell isn’t a guy who comes out with triple digit fastballs and simply blows guys away, though he does have a fastball that has a heavy sinking action, sits in the low-90s, and can run up to 96-97 at the top end. What makes Honeywell unique is his combination of secondary pitches.
Many know Honeywell as one of the rare guys who utilizes a screwball, and his screwball is excellent, with a remarkable ability to control what is a difficult pitch typically to even get a feel for, let alone control consistently. Honeywell works with a plus cutter and a fringe plus change as well that he can spot from the waist down with pinpoint accuracy. His curve isn’t great, but he gets excellent swings on the pitch as a “show me” pitch as a fifth option.
One of the big reasons many in the Rays rotation have been in trade rumors this offseason is due to the presence of Honeywell, ready to jump immediately into the Tampa Bay rotation. He has a bulldog mentality on the mound and truly can make even his plus stuff play up even better.
I would not be surprised if Honeywell develops into a front line starter in the major leagues. He will be my top ranked pitcher when my overall list comes out in January.
Next: Newcomer to watch
2017 Acquisition: Michael Mercado, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/15/99 (18)
2017 teams/levels played for: Gulf Coast League Rays
2017 Stats: 8 GS, 21 1/3 IP, 1.69 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 4.7% BB, 16.3% K
Info: As I was preparing for the 2017 draft and reviewing scouting reports from friends and contacts in the scouting industry, one guy consistently caught my eye for the off-field stuff, and that was Mercado. His attitude about the game was great in the write-ups I read, and his ability on the mound was certainly such that he could have had a cocky attitude.
Mercado ended up going to the Rays with the 40th overall pick in the 2nd round in June, signing for above slot to go to the Rays.
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At 6’4″, Mercado has the natural frame to impress, though he’s tremendously lean in that frame now at a listed 160 pounds (though I’d wager he’s more in the 175-180 range in workout videos I’ve seen this winter of him). He already has a loose, easy delivery that generates low-90s velocity with plenty of projection in the arm.
What is impressive is his feel for pitching, especially in his breaking stuff. Mercado’s curve has a tremendous sharp break that left hitters either flailing wildly or completely frozen in the views I had on him. He throws a slider that doesn’t have the same sharpness, but he plays the pitch up by locating it very well and using it within counts well to keep hitters off-balance.
Mercado’s need to fill in his frame will likely mean for a slow initial progression through the Rays minor league system, likely playing short-season ball next year before working his way to the Midwest League in 2019, but the talent is here that once the reigns are released, he could absolutely fly through the system.
That’s the Rays top 10 prospects going into the 2018 season. Who was too high? Who was too low? Who was missing? Let us know in the comments below!!