Call to the pen
Fansided

The declining Albert Pujols and others before him

By Bobby Mueller

ANAHEIM, CA - MARCH 25: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Designated hitter Albert Pujols (5) looks on during a preseason MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim on March 25, 2018 at Angel Stadium of Anaheim in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ANAHEIM, CA - MARCH 25: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Designated hitter Albert Pujols (5) looks on during a preseason MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim on March 25, 2018 at Angel Stadium of Anaheim in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Who is more Hall of Fame worthy?

So, back to the question: who would you be more likely to vote into the Hall of Fame? Player A is a Mickey Mantle caliber hitter with 2000 hits and 445 homers. Player B is a Miguel Cabrera caliber hitter with 3000 hits and 620 homers.

As you might expect, more people chose Player B, by a margin of 65 percent to 22 percent with 13 percent voting “too close to call.” These counting numbers make a difference to most people.

You may have guessed that both of these players, player A and player B, are Albert Pujols. Player A is the Albert Pujols that played for the St. Louis Cardinals — that Albert Pujols is a very worthy Hall of Fame player.

His 86.6 WAR as a Cardinal would rank him 49th in the history of baseball, right between George Brett and Tim Keefe (a pitcher from the 1880s). It’s a couple more WAR than Chipper Jones and a few more than Ken Griffey, Jr.

Player B is the entire career of Albert Pujols. That is also a Hall of Fame player but, since he joined the Angels, Albert Pujols has added just 12.9 WAR in six-plus seasons. He hasn’t been anywhere close to the player he was with the Cardinals, but he’s been able to add more hits, runs, homers, and RBI to his career totals.

With Albert Pujols, you have the St. Louis Cardinals version which was already a Hall of Fame-worthy player after 11 seasons. Then you add in what he’s done so far with the Angels, which is not as impressive.

He was above average in three of his first four seasons in Los Angeles but has struggled in the last two-plus years. Last year was particularly bad when he was worth -1.8 WAR. This is what he’s done statistically with the Angels:

  • .262/.317/.458, 448 R, 175 HR, 609 RBI, 115 OPS+.

For reference, players close to a 115 OPS+ last season were Mike Moustakas (116), Jay Bruce (115), and Eugenio Suarez (115). That’s what Pujols has provided to the Angels in the first six-plus years of his 10-year contract. At his age and with his recent history, it’s only going to get worse from here.

Albert Pujols, the Los Angeles Angels version, has not been a Hall of Fame caliber player. This doesn’t take away from Pujols being a first ballot Hall of Famer. He definitely is. But he is a first ballot guy primarily because of what he did in St. Louis.

His three above-average years with the Angels can be added to the resume, but if he completes his contract, those years are likely to come with seven below average seasons, some of which will be below replacement-level seasons.

Of course, Albert Pujols isn’t the only Hall of Fame player in baseball history to have a low-value decline phase. He’s probably not even the most relevant example. He’s just the latest example. Players like Sandy Koufax, who retired as the undisputed best pitcher in baseball, is an exception.

An arm injury pushed him away from the game. Barry Bonds is another exception. He was fourth in baseball with a 169 OPS+ in his final season and had more life left in his bat but didn’t get a chance to continue his career.

Most players, even Hall of Famers like Albert Pujols, have careers that end in a slow fade rather than the light going out all at once. Let’s take a look at some recent examples.

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