MLB Free Agency: Potential landing spots for Dallas Keuchel
Dallas Keuchel is one of the top MLB free agents on the market today. As one of a few top starting pitchers on the market, he could end up at nearly any team.
Since Dallas Keuchel has Scott Boras as his agent, it could be a while before the left-handed 30-year-old gets a contract. While he’s one of the better pitchers in the MLB free agents market, he is no longer the ace that he once was when he earned the Cy Young in 2015.
Don’t get me wrong, Keuchel will be a catch for any team. He’s a horse and the league-leading 874 batters he faced in 2018 will confirm that. But, his strikeout numbers dropped in 2018 and his hits per nine increased.
According to a post about Keuchel in MLB Trade Rumors, Boras called Keuchel the “soft-contact genius of his era.” Because of this, the team that signs him will need to have a strong infield defense to contain the nearly 27% soft-contact rate that Keuchel does so well.
In a league dominated by home runs, Keuchel has given up relatively few, especially when compared to other starting pitchers. In 2017, the year of the home run, he only gave up 15 in 145.2 innings pitched. In 2018, when he pitched 204.2 innings, he gave up 18. Compare that to 28 in 2018 given up by former teammate Justin Verlander and the 32 given up by Mike Fiers in 2017 – Keuchel’s ground-ball rate seems like a real asset.
Keuchel has another thing going for him. He can actually field his position and he has four Gold Glove Awards to prove it. All too often, pitchers struggle to field balls that come their way, often making wonky throws to first. Keuchel repeatedly has an above-average range defending the mound. His range numbers are often at least one point above league average, which at the pitching position is notable.
There are at least 10 teams that could potentially become the new home of Dallas Keuchel. Let’s take a look at how he would fit in each of them.
Two teams have been rumored to have shown serious interest in the left-handed pitcher and one of them is the Atlanta Braves.
After losing Anibal Sanchez to free agency, the team is in need of one more pitcher. Keuchel is on their radar. They do have five pitchers in their depth chart, but at least one of those pitchers could be on the trading block to add a catcher.
The Braves are likely to keep at least righty Mike Foltynewicz and lefty Sean Newcomb. All the rest of their starting rotation is right-handed. So signing Keuchel would add another southpaw to the mix.
Rumors involve the Braves showing significant interest in J.T. Realmuto with the plans of using Julio Teheran to tempt the Marlins. This would open up a spot for Keuchel. According to Nick Cafardo with The Boston Globe:
“The Braves, looking for a veteran leader, also have Keuchel high on their wish list.”
As the Braves are hunting for that top spot in the NL East, Keuchel could be the perfect addition to take them there. His experience and work ethic could provide the perfect balance of leadership with veterans Freddie Freeman and newly acquired Josh Donaldson.
If the Braves do sign Keuchel, the contract probably won’t be for more than two years. With their surprising rise to the top in 2018, the team’s window is now.
The NL East could be the division to watch in 2019 and good pitching is one of the most important keys to getting to the top. With Max Scherzer in the NL East, any team that wants to win needs competitive pitching.
With the recent news that Patrick Corbin was wooed in Citizens Bank Park, it is clear that the Phillies are in the market for a pitcher.
Twitter is buzzing about Patrick Corbin being in Philadelphia and at Citizens Bank Park today. Well, it is true. He is high on Phillies' wish list
— Jim Salisbury (@JSalisburyNBCS) November 27, 2018
Unfortunately for the Phillies, the Yankees invited the 29-year-old lefty to the Bronx a few days later.
Patrick Corbin will be in New York meeting with #Yankees officials tmrw. As of now there is no plan to meet on this same visit with #Mets execs.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) November 28, 2018
If the Phillies don’t get Corbin, Keuchel could also make the team better. Despite the two pitchers have clearly different stuff, Keuchel is also a lefty and could make a good second or third pitcher after Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta.
Phillies owner John Middleton made the oft-quoted statement to Bob Nightengale at USA Today:
“We’re going into this expecting to spend money. And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it.’’
Most believe that this quote is in reference to signing either Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado, but it could also involve adding a top free agent pitcher, too.
If Keuchel lands in the NL East, it’s probably a safe guess that the landing spot will be at SunTrust Park. But, if the Phillies don’t land Corbin, Keuchel could be the guy. Besides, Keuchel and Arrieta both have some of the best beards in baseball.
The Cincinnati Reds are an interesting team. Are they rebuilding? Are they going for it? What’s going on with the Big Red Machine?
One thing that appears to be happening with the Reds is a serious interest in Keuchel. Jon Heyman with Fancred Sports reported this on his website on November 29. He wrote:
“The Reds are said to be “all over” Dallas Keuchel. Apparently, Cincinnati believes that he is fit for a small ballpark such as Great America.”
Adding Keuchel might make the Reds relevant again. And, their infield is good, so they could easily handle the grounders that are hit off of Keuchels low pitches. Consider their infield: Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Jose Peraza, and Eugenio Suarez.
The Reds lost Matt Harvey to free agency and are left with only four pitchers in the depth chart. Their current number one is Anthony DeSclafani and their number two is Luis Castillo. Don’t know who they are? It’s ok. Of the three, only Castillo ended up qualifying for the ERA title in 2018. He finished just behind Rick Porcello in 45th place with an ERA of 4.30 in 169.2 innings pitched.
With players lost to free agency, the Reds have some money available. Votto is their highest paid player with $25 million each year through 2023. Otherwise, Homer Bailey is the only other player with a hefty contract $23 million contract in 2019. Everyone else is under $6 million or still in arbitration.
Keuchel would seriously upgrade the Reds rotation. Is there a chance he could actually join the team? Possibly. For the right price. If he signed in Cincinnati, it would certainly come as a surprise.
The big hole in the Yankees lineup is Sonny Gray and Brian Cashman is actively trying to move him. But, once he’s moved, the Yankees could certainly use a left-handed sinkerballer.
Where would he fit in? Most likely behind Luis Severino and James Paxton. Possibly even behind Masahiro Tanaka. Honestly, he could probably fit in nearly anywhere, on any team as good lefty pitchers are valuable.
What doesn’t fit with Keuchel and the Yankees is the whole no-facial-hair rule. Keuchel’s beard is Keuchel’s beard. It would be strange to see him on the mound without it. But, pitching for the Yankees seems to be a dream for nearly any player in the Big Leagues.
At this point in the off-season, rumors regarding Keuchel and the Pinstripes are limited. But, in the middle of November, Keuchel was reported to be willing to shave to play in The Bronx. According to Henry Fernandez with Fox Business, Keuchel said he likes pitching at Yankee Stadium and would comply with the rule about being cleanly shaven. He said:
“For the right opportunity, I would happily shave this beard off.”
While it doesn’t seem likely that the Yankees would in Keuchel, it is commonplace for the Yankees to surprise fans in the off-season. Consider the Giancarlo Stanton trade in the 2017-18 off-season.
In his career, he’s pitched in five games at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have a career slash of .210/.256/.252 against him. While it is difficult to compare five games to the 96 he’s pitched at Minute Maid Park, his slash against is rather similar: .233/.288/.346. Those five games are some the best he’s pitched.
One team that would be grateful to sign a pitcher like Keuchel is the Chicago White Sox. With the potential sell-off happening in Cleveland, the White Sox could be closer to playoff contention than most think.
The White Sox need pitching. They lost James Shields to free agency and rookie pitcher Michael Kopech will be a rookie for another season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in the fall.
So, the ChiSox have one, possibly two rotation spots to fill. Only Carlos Rodon pitches from the left side, so Keuchel would be a valuable southpaw on the South Side. As no one in the Sox rotation is a clear “ace,” Keuchel could be the number one pitcher.
His veteran presence would be useful for the young pitchers on the staff. Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito, and Rodon are still considerably young. As general manager Rick Hahn recently traded for closer Alex Colome, it is clear that the White Sox are a team on the move.
Another consideration is the fact that the Sox have money to spend. While the Phillies are rumored to be willing to spend “silly money,” the Sox actually do have a silly amount available. They have a ridiculously low amount of money on the books as they move deeper into the Hot Stove season. It would be very easy for them to sign multiple free agents including Keuchel and possibly even Manny Machado and/or Bryce Harper. Prior to trading for Colome, they had under $15 million committed to players in 2019.
Rumors are that the White Sox are in on everyone as both Jim Bowden and Dan Duquette have repeatedly said on MLB Network Radio. The White Sox don’t get much national attention, but they soon will, especially if they come out of the woodwork and nab someone like Keuchel.
The Texas Rangers could be a sleeper team in 2019. They’ve made a few moves that affect their starting rotation. They’ve hired a new manager.
But, would they go as far as signing the Cy Young pitcher from their closest rival?
In baseball, anything is possible.
Since the beginning of the Hot Stove season, the Rangers have moved up Edinson Volquez from the minor leagues and made a trade with the Cubs for Drew Smyly – who spent all of 2018 on the DL recovering from Tommy John surgery. Mike Minor remains their number one pitcher. Their depth chart includes 22-year-old Ariel Jurado and 23-year-old Yohander Mendez.
They need someone like Keuchel in their rotation.
With Adrian Beltre retiring, the Rangers have a payroll that could afford them a few players of Keuchel’s stature. Remember, the Rangers no longer have Cole Hamels, their biggest contract obligations belong to Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Mike Minor, and Rougned Odor.
The Rangers need veteran pitchers badly and Minor is the only guaranteed arm for 2018. Minor, Smyly, and Mendez are all left-handed, so Keuchel might be one too many southpaws. But, the youngsters Jurado and Mendez could easily be replaced by someone like Keuchel, and another pitcher – if the Rangers decide to make an impact in the AL West.
If Keuchel were signed by the Rangers imagine what the crowds would be like at Minute Maid Park or Globe Life Park with the two Texas powerhouses play each other. It could be an epic standoff between gunslingers like Keuchel, Justin Verlander, or Gerrit Cole. I’d pay top dollar to see a game like that!
The Los Angeles Angels have one of the best offenses in the game, but the pitching hasn’t been up to par. With Shohei Ohtani recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Angels need good pitching.
The Angels recently let go of two of their starting pitchers. Matt Shoemaker was non-tendered last week and Parker Bridwell was placed on waivers and claimed by the Yankees. This leaves Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, and Nick Tropeano in their rotation. Nothing against the Angels, but those three pitchers do not inspire a great deal of confidence. They’re not bad, they’re just not outstanding. And, the Angels are due for outstanding.
The Angels have Mike Trout. Who knows for how long. As the window of guaranteed days with Mike Trout are closing, they need pitching.
The team has been rumored to have interest in J.A. Happ via MLB Trade Rumors.
Even though the Angels are in the AL West, signing Keuchel would not be as much of a shock as a Rangers signing would be. Keuchel would most likely be the top starter for the Halos, unless they signed Happ, too.
The Angels current payroll would make it difficult to sign more than one starter, but when teams go for it, they go for it. The big money is going to Trout, Albert Pujols, and Justin Upton. But, these guys are good, and they deserve a shot at the playoffs. They’ve also got one of the best defensive players in the league in shortstop Andrelton Simmons. At age 29, he is the top active defensive position player in terms of WAR. Adrian Beltre had the honor, but he’s retired now.
Signing Keuchel could be the thing that takes the Angels to the top. But, they’ll still have to contend with the pitching in Houston.
As the 2019 off-season chugs along, the Arizona Diamondbacks have come into the conversation. Not as potential competition against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but for their possible desire to move pricey pieces like Zack Greinke and Paul Goldschmidt. The pair eats up $49 million of the D-backs salary in 2019.
Greinke has the eighth highest contract in the MLB and isn’t a free agent until 2022. But as the Robinson Cano trade to the Mets has proven – anything is possible.
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Whether the D-backs move Greinke or not, they still need pitching. They non-tendered Shelby Miller and Taijaun Walker had Tommy John surgery in April 2018. Patrick Corbin is the hot pitcher in free agency. Clay Buchholz is a free agent, too. Zach Godley and Robbie Ray round out the four names in the depth chart.
All of the D-backs pitchers are right-handed, so Keuchel’s left-hand would be greatly appreciated.
Like all MLB teams, the D-backs have a list of prospects heading toward the Big Leagues, but their top prospect is currently ranked #80 in the whole MLB. That doesn’t offer much hope, at least for the 2019 season. Jon Duplantier was #73 at the start of the season. The 24-year-old right-handed pitcher hasn’t thrown in Triple-A yet. So the D-backs need someone who is ready, now.
Keuchel could fill the position nicely, but he’s not going to be cheap for the D-backs. If they can move Greinke or Goldschmidt, they might get some arms in return, but the likelihood of that is rather low. Trades generally involve prospects. So, free agency might be the way the D-backs fill the glaring holes in their rotation.
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They’ve got to have someone throw the ball from the mound. If they can’t sign someone like Keuchel and they can’t get rid of Greinke (who has 15 teams on his no-trade clause via Steve Buchanan of The Athletic), maybe they’ll follow the Tampa Bay Rays lead and start using an opener.