Phillies: Addressing 14 pitching worries for the 2019 campaign

With four teams expecting an up-and-down 2019, Phillies fans are fretting unnecessarily about shortcomings, but they are not alone because supporters of the other three organizations are reacting the same way.

First half:

Since each Philadelphia Phillies hurler will have a difficult outing at an overall average of once every five opportunities, the faithful will have concerns if they focus on a subpar performance alone. Realistically, management anticipates a 20 percent failure rate and bases their evaluation accordingly.

IN OTHER WORDS:  “Do not build up obstacles in your imagination. Difficulties must be studied and dealt with, but they must not be magnified by fear.” – Norman Vincent Peale

As for the 14 worries, each pitcher including Nick Pivetta will –if he hasn’t already– give you pause. Because peaks and valleys are the norm during a full 162, every player will eventually disappoint you or scare the bejesus out of you. Wait till September!

Beginning with the rotation, the Fightins have five hurlers you shouldn’t dread before pitch one. Basically, fans should have a reasonable expectation of the club being in each game because every starter can –for the most part– limit the opposition to four runs. And the offense can outscore their rivals, slumps permitting.

As for the relief corps, four solid arms are currently available, plus three more are on the IL (injured list). And they usually get the job done, even though they can make you nervous, but that’s probably you more than them: just a wild guess.

In April, franchises are evaluating their 40-man rosters and have earmarked money for July to plug any holes due to injury or ineffectiveness. This three-month period allows for a slumping hitter to bounce back or a struggling moundsman to recapture his mojo. Obviously, some don’t have a spectacular first month.

Barring an unforeseen event by another organization, trades are uncommon during the season’s first nine weeks. And because their reputation is at stake, a general manager like Matt Klentak must find out what he has this year from his regulars, starters and relievers.

Usually, when clubs judge their pitchers, they expect four of every five chances to be acceptable: good or so-so. To illustrate, a reliever with five one-inning appearances can allow a three-run homer in one contest and no runs in the other four for a 5.40 ERA to the displeasure of many locals questioning his usage.

Rotation roulette:           

Beginning atop the Phillies staff, Aaron Nola has a 5.68 ERA. Yes, he’s had two bad appearances out of six including a weather-influenced disaster of wind and rain. And his two so-so outings included one at Coors Field against the rejuvenated Colorado Rockies. But now he’s back!

Regarding Jake Arrieta, he’s had five good performances out of six and has a 3.46 ERA. Last summer, he pitched through June’s knee injury until September’s end. But he really struggled in his final nine starts. Therefore, he’ll be a solid number two if he can stay healthy.

In the three slot, Zach Eflin has a 3.34 ERA because of two clunkers out of his six opportunities, but the other four were good outings: four earned runs in 27 frames (a 1.33 ERA). Normally, a player makes an impact in or after his third season according to a retired GM from another franchise: 60-90 starts. Eflin?

Phillies total starts based on 30 annually:

• Nola at 99 for 3 campaigns plus of development.
• Velasquez at 80 for 2.5 plus.
• Eickhoff at 68 for 2 plus.
• Pivetta at 62 for 2 plus.
• Eflin at 52 for 1.5 plus.

Until he has a poor start –and he’ll have one– Vince Velasquez has quieted his detractors, but they are currently holding their “he’s a reliever” fire. Actually, he’s in his third year starts-wise, and he’ll reach the 90 mark with 10 more. For now, though, he has a 1.99 ERA.

After he missed most of 2018, Jerad Eickhoff resembles his 2016 self: a 3.65 ERA for 197 1/3 innings. So far, he’s had a good and a so-so outing and has a 2.12 ERA. Like Velasquez, however, the hometown nine have him on a lighter workload.

Pivetta must improve his control for a rotation slot on the parent club. Unfortunately, he’s had two so-so MLB performances with two clunkers. Plus he’s had two MiLB appearances: one good and one so-so. That stated, the Phils could use a six-man staff in the second half to get Velasquez and Eickhoff through September.

Best of the bunch:             

When the Phillies reactivate David Robertson, he will return to critical opportunities after two lower-leverage situations to ease into a preferred role. Hopefully, he’ll pick things up from his last four consecutive scoreless outings. Plus he lowered his ERA to 5.40 with two holds.

Regarding Seranthony Dominguez, he has a 5.23 ERA with three holds but also has nine of 12 acceptable outings. At 75 percent, he is dependable, and eight of those nine performances were good.

Hector Neris has a 2.92 ERA, four saves, and two holds with 10 good performances out of 12 for 83.3 percent. Specific games aside, does management know something you don’t? Yes! When he has good stuff, the batter can’t identify the pitch because of its rare late movement.

In its path, I viewed rookie Willie “Stretch” McCovey’s foul line drive to the first row at first base, and the focused-on ball appeared to be in a tunnel. Similarity: Frandsen during a March radio broadcast explained Neris’ deception: His split-finger fastball drops below the tunnel late. Ergo, the batter incorrectly reads a heater.

With eight good performances and one so-so out of 12, Pat Neshek has an effective rate of 75 percent. He has a 2.45 ERA with one save. However, some poor appearances came in critical spots.

Being the bullpen’s pleasant surprise, Adam Morgan has a 0.00 ERA with six holds, plus he’s had 14 good performances: 100 percent. And this isn’t his first string of outstanding pitching, he established himself in 2017’s second half with a dominant August and September.

Job insecurity:

Because Jose Alvarez has no options remaining, the Phillies will employ the veteran as a left-handed specialist. He has a save and a hold with a 7.20 ERA. Yes, he will appear in some late frames if other hurlers aren’t available. To date, though, he’s had seven acceptable outings out of 11 for 63.6 percent.

Regarding Juan Nicasio, he’s managed six good appearances out of nine for a 66.7 percent average. He has a 5.84 ERA and one hold. For now, he’s mostly doing mop-up work, but he’ll be on the bubble when more valuable arms come off the IL.

Edubray Ramos has a 6.75 ERA, but he had a 2.32 ERA last summer. However, because he’s on his last active option, he may return to Lehigh Valley. At this time, though, he’s had three good and one so-so performance out of six for a rate of 66.7 percent.

While the Fightins currently have Nicasio, Ramos, and an IronPigs’ starter possibly working in long relief, Robertson, Arano and Hunter could take their place. Robertson will be the first one back, Arano has elbow inflammation without a timetable, and Hunter won’t be returning until mid-July.

National League rankings for ERA:

• Phillies: a 4.23 overall ERA (7th), a 4.20 starter’s ERA (7th**), and a 4.27 pen ERA (7th).
• Braves: a 4.84 overall ERA (12th), a 4.99 starter’s ERA (13th), and a 4.64 pen ERA (9th).
• Nationals: a 4.98 overall ERA (13th), a 4.20 starter’s ERA (8th*), and a 6.57 pen ERA (15th).
• Mets: a 5.32 overall ERA (15th), a 5.18 starter’s ERA (14th), and a 5.70 pen ERA (14th).
• ** 158 2/3 innings, * 156 1/3 innings.

On paper, the Nationals and Mets have the pitching advantage, but the numbers are indicating the Phils aren’t the only NL East contender having difficulties. Basically, the pen is livable, the one-two punch is leading the rotation, and three maturing starters could be realizing their potential. Worry if you want to.