Forecasting The NL MVP Race

The NL MVP race has two obvious candidates in Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger, but are there others who warrant consideration?

Culling the field of potential NL MVP candidates is tricky business. Just take the Democratic Nominating Committee, who in letting candidates nominate themselves have grown the field so large that it’s going to take two nights to give them each a chance to talk.

Luckily, MVPs don’t get to nominate themselves – they have to earn the distinction with their performance on the field. It’s incumbent upon the voters to decide who deserves the honor.

Unfortunately, as with selecting the best person to lead the democratic party, there is no clear set of criteria to point us to the MVP. The Most Valuable Player means something different to different people, and the debate between best versus valuable rages on every season.

We do, however, have a set of benchmarks to winnow the field and lead us metal-detector-on-the-beach-style in the direction of the most likely winner. Typically, the eventual MVP will be a repeat winner, or the WAR leader, or the best player on the best team, or a player with a narrative hook, or a player with a single stat abnormality that helps him stand out from the pack.

So who will win the NL MVP award this year? Let’s take a look at the top candidates.

Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers

Yelich continues to make fools of the entire league. In his follow up to an NL MVP 2018 season, Yelich has avoided the sequel trap: he’s more Terminator 2 than Temple of Doom.

So how has he put the Brewers on his back? He has cut his K-rate, bumped his walk rate, and his isolated power has jumped by an I-can’t-believe-I’m-typing-this 48% increase. He’s rocking a .402 ISO on the season.

For reference, only three players in the Post-Segregation Era have finished a season with an ISO over .400: Sammy Sosa (2001), Mark McGwire (1996, 1998, 1999), and Barry Bonds (2001-2004) – and those guys all had a little help.

The Brewers fleecing the Marlins for this guy continues to be one of the great talent adds of the last ten years. But it’s okay, Marlins fans. This is all part of the plan:

“We knew what we were giving up when we made that trade,” Manager Don Mattingly said. “It’s not like, there’s no re-found magic. The ball flies out in Milwaukee. You hit 21 homers here. He played here the year he hit 21. If [Marlins Park] was that ballpark, he would probably hit 40, so it wasn’t like we were getting tricked. We knew what we were doing. We’ll see in a couple years.”

Pardon my incredulity, but you saw this coming? You saw a guy with Pete Davidson’s body type mashing at Bondsian levels? And you traded him? Brag on.

I’m not sure what Mattingly trying to prove, because it seems like his point is they knew exactly what Christian Yelich was, and they decided Lewis Brinson, Isan Diaz, Monte Harrison, and Jordan Yamamoto was equal value for a guy who very well might win back-to-back MVPs on a ridiculously cheap contract.

Frankly, I don’t think it was a terrible return, but that doesn’t make Mattingly’s comments any more absurd. Now, back to how Yelich could win a second straight NL MVP award.

The Brewers aren’t a lock to make a second straight postseason, but they’re as safe a bet as anyone outside of the Dodgers in the National League, and if they do, Yelich and his .342/.435/.744 batting line will be reason number one.

If he maintains this level of power output, he’ll also be the first guy in the post-steroids era to slug over .700. Yelich is as good as they come in baseball nowadays, and if he’s not in the top-3 of the NL MVP voting by season’s end (barring injury) I will eat a Don Mattingly jersey.

The craziest part of Yelich’s 2019, is that he’s not even the odds-on favorite to win the award.

Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers

Cody Bellinger has graduated. He’s no longer the spirited freshman who becomes the defacto team mascot while playing over-his-head on the varsity squad. Justin Turner, Corey Seager, and Max Muncy have all taken their turns playing the offensive MVP for the Dodgers during their back-to-back pennant runs, but there’s no longer any question as to who pilots the aircraft over Chavez Ravine.

Cody Bellinger’s qualifying resume blows everyone else out of the water. By fWAR, he is tied with Mike Trout for the major-league lead. By rWAR, he leads even Trout by more than a full WAR (6.3 to 5.2).

He’s already surpassed his fWAR totals of either of the past two seasons, driven by a ludicrous .349/.444/.699 batting line. Compared to last year’s .260/.343/.470 line, Bellinger has supersized his output while becoming more efficient.

He’s also the clear best player on the league’s clear best team, and he’s a guy making the jump from good-to-great, which always draws extra attention, as it did for Yelich and Baez last season.

His walk rate has jumped from 10.9 BB% to 14.8 BB% and he’s making lots more contract, cutting his year-over-year strikeout rate from 23.9% to 15.1%. In 76 games, he has already matched his home run output (25) from 162 games last year.

This isn’t a result of a launch angle adjustment, as we so often see these days – Bellinger is simply hitting the ball with more authority. He’s pulling to right more often than ever before, and his hard hit rate sits at 51.8%. Every other time that Bellinger makes contact with the baseball, he makes hard contact.

The other major area of improvement is that he is absolutely hammering lefties in 2019 to the tune of .359/.464/.728 with 10 of his 25 home runs. Considering Dave Roberts has protected Bellinger at times against lefties in the playoffs the last two seasons, this is a significant development as much for October as the 162 games leading up to it.

He’s done all this while becoming the best defensive right fielder in baseball. In less than 600 innings, he’s been worth 20 defensive runs saved while grading a 9.8 on the UZR scale. He plays an above-average centerfield if they need him there, and while the Dodgers have more than enough manpower at first base, he can cover there too.

The hardware is not on his mantle yet, however. There’s still half a season for someone else to emerge.

Pete Alonso, New York Mets

Pete Alonso is going to be the Rookie of the Year. That alone makes him a little less likely to take home the NL MVP Award, especially if the Mets continue to tailspin. Still, at this point in the season, he deserves a mention.

We know about the prodigious power: .366 ISO, .642 SLG, and his 27 home runs are already a Mets rookie record. Dude hits moonshots like few others in the league. Seeing one is all you should need for proof of concept – Alonso has MVP potential.

But Alonso isn’t just a home run guy, that’s just what he does best. He’s also tied with Rendon with a 161 wRC+, and he nobody barrels up the ball more often than he does by the rate (12.4 Brls/PA%).

He strikes out a lot, but not a detrimental amount, and his walk rate is solidly above average, if not yet in the elite range. Alonso’s game isn’t as well-rounded as Yelich, Bellinger, or Rendon, but he’s got YouTube power that could one day land him firmly in the NL MVP discussion.

As of today, he’s on pace for close to 55 home runs, and if he gets there, that’s the type of single stat dominance that will earn him a vote or two.

The Verdict

This feels as close to a lock as can be this early in the season. The Dodgers are all but guaranteed to win their 7th consecutive NL West title, whereas any of the other mentioned candidates could miss the playoffs altogether. While that shouldn’t necessarily matter in a personal performance award, it almost always does.

More from Call to the Pen

• Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
• Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
• Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
• 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals

Yelich could face some voter fatigue after winning last season, whereas voters will like being able to reward the Dodgers for all their past success by bestowing this award upon Bellinger.

There’s not much that Bellinger doesn’t have in his favor. He also has a pretty sizeable lead at this point in terms of WAR. If he ends up with a 10+ WAR season, he’s all but guaranteed to take home the hardware – and he’ll deserve it too.

Yelich remains the most likely candidate to take him out, especially if he powers the Brewers to a second straight NL Central title. It’s looking like another wire-to-wire barnburner in the midwest, which could grant Yelich an edge via recency bias, especially if the Dodgers are coasting and giving Bellinger an extra couple days of rest.

There’s always the possibility of injury, of course, which would be the worst way to derail either slugger’s campaign, but it remains on the table. If, for instance, Bellinger and Yelich break their legs while competing together in a three-legged race (you never know), Rendon and Alonso would have an opportunity to make up some ground – but they’re not alone.

Baez could still make a move to stay in the conversation, as could his teammate and former NL MVP Kris Bryant. Ketel Marte has had an insane first half (3.6 fWAR), but it’s to imagine him building upon what’s already been a fairly unbelievable first half performance.

If Freddie Freeman (3.0 fWAR) strings together a couple more series like this last weekend against the Nationals, he could enter the conversation. Nolan Arenado would be another veteran contender would power his way into the discussion by leading a Rockies resurgence in the second half.

For now, however, this is a Yeli or Belli conversation. Who’s your pick?