NL MVP race heats up with these four players making their case

The 2019 NL MVP race has gotten quite crowded with Cody Bellinger, Christin Yelich, Anthony Rendon, Ronald Acuna Jr. and more stake their claims!

Back in August of 2019, fellow colleague Bill Felber took a look at the state of 2019 NL MVP race. At the time, it was essentially a two-man race between OF Cody Bellinger of the Los Angeles Dodgers and the 2018 NL MVP, OF Christian Yelich of the Milwaukee Brewers.

The two paced the Senior Circuit in the majority of the most important statistics. In fact, when that piece was published on August 15, 2019, Bellinger and Yelich sat at 6.4 WAR and 6.2 WAR, respectively. Ketel Marte was in third place at the time, almost a full 1 WAR behind Yelich.

It looked as if the two outfielders were left to fight for the award amongst themselves.

Oh, how things can change in three weeks! In the mere span of 23 days, the NL MVP race has gotten very interesting.  With teams battling for playoff contention, certain players have elevated their game to new heights, launching themselves into the fold. Others have supported their claims by continuing to produce, while a slight slide from Bellinger and Yelich has helped lessen the gap.

The NL MVP race is seemingly wide open, and with roughly 20 games left, there are some strong candidates for the award. Let’s take a look at where the top contenders stand, and how the race could potentially shake out!

2019 NL MVP Race

Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers

Coming into 2019 with a revamped swing and a new approach to his game, Cody Bellinger has announced himself as one of baseball’s premier superstars. He began the season on an absolute tear, slashing .379/.465/.749 through May.

While that level of production is somewhat unsustainable, Bellinger has continued to produce at a high level, sitting at .308/.412/.651 with 44 HR and 104 RBI at the time of this writing.

Bellinger is no stranger to the spotlight, as he won the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year Award after posting a .933 OPS and breaking the NL rookie home run record with 39 HR. He regressed a bit in his sophomore season, hitting .260/.343/.470 with 25 homers in 2018. He entered that offseason on a mission to improve, with a plan that has paid off in spades this season.

The Dodgers’ outfielder has made significant strides in improving upon his plate discipline. In 2019, Bellinger has increased his BB% by 3.8%, while simultaneously cutting his KK% by an NL-best 7.8%. His improved patience at the plate has allowed him to connect on more pitches he can drive, evidenced by both a 10.5% jump in hard-hit percentage and 7.3% increase in line-drive percentage.

Bellinger has also been one of the league’s top defenders, ranking as the sixth-best in the NL in outs above average, in addition to an NL-best 19 defensive runs saved. Toss in above-average speed on the base paths, and Bellinger has displayed MVP-level production in virtually every area of his game this season.

He’s also the offensive engine powering the juggernaut that is the 2019 Los Angeles Dodgers. The team has locked up the NL West and are heavy favorites to win the NL pennant. The best player on the league’s best team, Cody Bellinger has done everything possible to deserve the NL MVP.

2019 NL MVP Race

Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers

Being in the MVP discussion is nothing new to Christian Yelich, who took home the hardware in 2018 on the heels of an outstanding season. Breaking out in his first season in Milwaukee, Yelich hit .326/.402/.598 while crushing 36 HR. His second half that year was one for the ages, as he hit 25 of his 36 homers while batting .367 and posting a ridiculous 1.219 OPS. His white-hot stretch to end the season locked up his first MVP award, and deservingly so.

2019 has been much of the same for Yelich, who has accumulated statistics eerily similar to his MVP campaign, albeit while displaying more power. He’s slashing .323/.418/.665, along with 43 homers and 93 RBI. He’s maintained an excellent walk rate of 13.0% and has increased his Hard% to 50.1%. Perhaps the most significant gains Yelich has made lie in his continued development as a power hitter. The wiry outfielder has leaned into the aspects of the game that are conducive to a power hitter in the home run-flying 2019 season. Compared to 2018, Yelich has further increased his FB% by a league-leading 12.5% and has pulled the ball more this year. On line drives and fly balls hit to his pull side, Yelich has posted an outrageous 2.059. Discovering the dormant slugger within himself last year, Yelich has fully unleashed his power stroke in 2019.

His newfound power hasn’t displaced the athletic, speed-based profile that originally made him a top prospect in the Miami Marlins system, as Yelich has stolen a career-high 26 bases in 2019. As crazy as it sounds, Christian Yelich has been even better this year than he was in 2018 and has another MVP award set in his sights.

2019 NL MVP Race

Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves

Building off the success of his 2018 rookie season, Ronald Acuna Jr. has taken another leap towards superstardom this season. He was quite good as a rookie, slashing .293/.366/.552, good for 3.7 WAR. However, the wheels have come off this season, figuratively and literally.

The majority of Acuna’s offensive numbers aren’t much different this year when compared to 2018, as he’s currently hitting .283/.365/.519. That being said, he’s amassed 5.1 WAR, which is the fifth-best in the NL. There are few significant improvements Acuna has made this season that has helped him reach new heights.

Considering 2019 is the year of the home run, it should come as no surprise that Acuna has seen a spike in power production. He’s smacked 37 HR thus far, thanks to a slight increase in Barrel%, which has gone from 13.4% to 14.6%.

Perhaps the most impressive part of Acuna’s game this season refers to his literal wheels. The outfielder has stolen 34 bases, the top total in the NL. Statcast rates him within the 96th percentile in sprint speed, so it was only a matter of time before he became a true terror on the basepaths. This combination of power and speed is rare. Acuna’s HR and SB totals give him a decent chance at amassing the fifth-ever 40-40  season, the first such season since 2006.

Acuna signed an eight-year, $100MM extension with the Braves at the beginning of the season, as the franchise believed he could be a core piece of their future. His excellence this season has that faith looking well-placed, as the young outfielder has a chance at becoming the youngest MVP in National League history.

2019 NL MVP Race

Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

Although Bellinger, Yelich, Rendon, and Acuna Jr. arguably dominate the discussion for NL MVP, there are other candidates who will likely receive consideration.

Ketel Marte of the Arizona Diamonbacks has enjoyed a phenomenal breakout season amidst a move to the outfield. Accumulating 6.5 WAR, Marte is slashing .328/.387/.591. He’s set a career-high in HR (30), thanks to a massive increase in launch angle (5.7 degrees to 11.3 degrees). As excellent as he’s been, falls victim to playing for a team that hasn’t garnered much national attention and will miss the playoffs. He’ll certainly receive down-ballot votes, but a real shot at the award is likely out of reach.

While the MVP award is historically difficult for pitchers to win, there are a few hurlers in the NL who warrant consideration. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jacob deGrom, and Max Scherzer have all had excellent seasons, each finding themselves at the front of the NL Cy Young race. We’ll have more on that race soon, but as far as the NL MVP is concerned, their names will be mentioned, although its unlikely they get serious consideration.

2019 NL MVP Prediction

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With only three weeks left in the 2019 season, I would suggest that the NL MVP is Bellinger’s award to lose. He’s dominating the league in multiple facets of the game and has been consistently excellent all season. The outfielder also benefits from being a star player in one of the sport’s largest markets, playing for one of its best teams.

Each other candidate has a valid case, but the overall narrative surrounding them isn’t as compelling as Bellinger’s. Yelich won the award last year, which combined with the Brewers slipping in the NL Central, may sway voters to cast their ballots elsewhere. Acuna has the excitement and storyline but doesn’t have the value-based statistics of the other candidates. Marte, as discussed earlier, plays for a team that hasn’t been able to grab much attention this season.

If anyone’s going to unseat Bellinger, I’d bet on Rendon. He’s been scorching hot since the beginning of August and has shown no signs of slowing down. If the Nationals continue to win games on the heels of Rendon’s overall dominance, their star third baseman could really make this race interesting.

As of now, I’d take Bellinger as the NL MVP. But, as we’ve seen, things can change quite a bit in three weeks. It’ll be fun to watch how this race shakes out!

Statistics via Fangraphs and Baseball Savant