The remarkable comeback of Justin Verlander
Entering Wednesday’s start, Justin Verlander is on pace for about 190 to 195 innings this season. For a guy that’s tossed 200+ innings in 12 seasons, that mark isn’t that impressive but, as a sign of the times, he’s still top-10 in the American League.
The 200 inning pitcher is nearing extinction and, outside of Sandy Alcantara, it’s unlikely anyone will cross the 220 inning threshold this year let alone come close to the 238 innings Verlander averaged from 2009 to 2012. Should he reach 190 innings this season, he’ll be one of 15 to 20 pitchers to reach that mark.
There’s a short list of pitchers that have thrown at least 130 innings and had an ERA under 2.00 at 39 or older. You’ve likely heard of most of them, if not all: Cy Young, Eddie Plank, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Roger Clemens. If Verlander reaches the 145-inning mark and his ERA remains below 2, he would be in a club with just Young and Clemens.
The game is way different now than when Young was playing and his 1.99 ERA in 1907 was just 29% above league average based on ERA+. Still an impressive feat in 343.1 innings but hard to make an apples-to-apples comparison.
If Justin Verlander keeps it up for the rest of the season, he and Clemens would be the only two starters in the last century to pitch a full season with an ERA under 2. Clemens miraculously (or mysteriously…) did it when he was 42 during his final year with the Houston Astros.
Furthering the legacy of Justin Verlander this year is his ability to put up a stellar season after making only one start in the previous two campaigns. He’s a shoo-in to win the American League Comeback Player of the Year award but, could he also win the Cy Young at the same time?
Since the Comeback Player of the Year award was started in 1965, there’s a short list of players that have done exactly that: Mike McCormick in 1967, John Denny in 1983, and Cliff Lee in 2008. If you include hitters, there’s an even smaller group that won Comeback Player of the Year and MVP in the same season that includes only Terry Pendleton in 1991 and Buster Posey in 2012.
McCormick had a strong season in 1967 when he won 22 games and posted a 2.85 ERA in 262.1 innings but this one is a bit of a head-scratcher since he compiled a 3.46 ERA and pitched 216 innings in 1966. John Denny’s 1983 is quite similar to McCormick’s situation and, while he could have been most improved, there’s not much he came back from. The same could be said for Pendleton’s 1991. Perhaps the definition of a comeback has changed over the last 55 years. Either way, these seasons are not in the same category as Verlander’s this year. None had previously been a top-tier player and none had an injury that cost them much, if any, time.
Lee had an atrocious 2007 after being a good pitcher in 2005 and 2006. He came in fourth in the AL Cy Young voting in 2005 after leading the league in win percentage and posting a 3.79 ERA in 202 innings. In 2007, he was awful and had a 6.29 ERA in 97.1 innings and ended up making 10 starts in the minor leagues. He bounced back in 2008 and led the league in wins, ERA, and ERA+ while making his first All-Star team. You can certainly call Lee’s season an impressive comeback and there’s no controversy surrounding his Cy Young award that season. It’s a nice story but, again, nowhere near what Verlander’s doing.
Posey’s 2012 may be the closest comp. In 2010 he won the Rookie of the Year award and was a critical piece as the Giants won the World Series. In May of 2011, Posey suffered an ankle injury after a collision at home plate and his season was over. The event was so influential that it led to a rule change and is referenced in Major League Baseball’s “Collisions at Home Plate” definition. The next season, the 25-year-old returned and posted a .336/.408/.549 line with 24 homers and 103 RBI while playing 148 games, leading the Giants to their second title in three years.
Of these five players, only Posey came back from a serious injury and he did it when he was 25, not 39. Posey ended up missing roughly two-thirds of the season while Verlander has missed pretty much all of two campaigns. Posey’s is an impressive story and part of his amazing legacy as one of the best catchers in his era but, again, it’s just not in the same discussion as what Verlander is doing this season.
There have been a ton of inspirational stories of determination that have led to impressive comebacks. Last year’s AL Comeback Player of the Year Trey Mancini is a great starting point. However, you may have to go out of the sport to find a proper comparison to what Verlander is doing this year. Mario Lemieux (twice) in hockey or George Foreman in boxing might be the closest parallels in recent history in major sports, and their comebacks aren’t that recent.
Next. Astros seeing dividends of Mancini trade. dark
There just simply aren’t many times when someone has done what Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander is doing this year, at the age he’s doing it, and after missing so much time. He was likely going to be inducted into the Hall of Fame even if he didn’t pitch this season but this should cement his case to get in on the first ballot.