Just like we all predicted going into the 2023 season, the St. Louis Cardinals are in last place in the NL Central, while the Milwaukee Brewers have jumped out to a strong, first-place start. As a matter of fact, 4.5 games separate these two teams in the division standings at the writing of this article.
Will this separation and current hierarchy last? Or are the NL Central’s current standings a reflection of a small and early sample size?
Let’s play two truths and a lie to find out.
Truth: The St. Louis Cardinals are not a last-place team in the NL Central
Seems obvious, right? After all, the St. Louis Cardinals employ arguably the best infield tandem in baseball with Nolan Arenado and defending NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt manning the corners. Rookie Jordan Walker is off to a fast start and the Cardinals have the makings of a potent lineup.
But things haven’t gone according to plan for St. Louis in the early going. Manager Oli Marmol recently had a public grievance airing with outfielder Tyler O’Neill over a lack of hustle, and the team doesn’t seem to be responding well to it. And after a Wild Card round disappointment last season, perhaps Marmol isn’t the right man for the job.
It doesn’t help that the pitching staff hasn’t quite done its job, either, as the Cardinals lack a true ace. Between Miles Mikolas’ and Steven Matz’ struggles and Jake Woodford’s ineptitude, St. Louis is left to depend on Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty (though the latter will once again need to display his former dominance to reclaim his ace status once again).
Fortunately for the Cardinals, the NL Central is still pretty weak. The Pirates just lost Oneil Cruz to a fractured ankle and the Reds aren’t there yet. More on the Cubs and Brewers later, but it seems more than fair to say St. Louis has too much talent to stay a last place team. And dysfunction has never been the name of the game for one of baseball’s most well-run organizations.
Truth: The Chicago Cubs are exactly where they should be
It’s only been a handful of games, but the Cubs find themselves positioned exactly where they should be the rest of the season: in third place.
Chicago loaded up this past winter by bringing in Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger and Jameson Taillon, and it’s led to mixed results to begin the year. Their +8 run differential is right in line with their 5-4 start to start the season and is indicative of the talent they’ve added. This wasn’t a good team in 2022, but it stands to reason that they’ll be improved in 2023, the question being how much.
The Cubs aren’t better than the Cardinals talent-wise, but they are clearly ahead of Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Ultimately, their placement in the division depends on how well the Brewers do, and considering Milwaukee took two out of three from Chicago to open the season, all signs point to a likely third place finish for the North Siders.
Lie: The Brewers are the class of the NL Central
The Brewers have been doing a lot right early on in the 2023 season. Case in point: Milwaukee’s +22 run differential is second in the National League, behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers thus far.
Corbin Burnes has struggled, but Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta have been their usual selves, with Wade Miley and Eric Lauer providing support on the back end. What’s really made the Brewers’ season so far, though, is their surprisingly potent offense.
You know about Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez and Willy Adames, but rookies Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer and Brice Turang have all stepped in to contribute at the dish. And Brian Anderson came out of nowhere to provide a bang early on. Of course, the league will adjust back to Milwaukee’s young talent, so regression will be on the way for a young lineup.
Additionally, the trade rumors are once again swirling. Can the Brewers keep this core together?
Last summer, the team traded star closer Josh Hader to San Diego, and refused to pay Corbin Burnes what he wanted in arbitration this winter. Milwaukee knows it can’t keep its ace AND Brandon Woodruff AND extend shortstop Willy Adames. So will they trade those players at their maximum values this summer? Or will they push all their chips in for one last hurrah?
The Cardinals won’t stay down forever, and the Cubs are improved. Plus, we haven’t even mentioned the broader context of the NL playoff picture that includes behemoths like the Padres, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies and Mets. That means nothing is guaranteed for the refreshed Milwaukee Brewers this season, despite coming out hot in the NL Central. And they aren’t a lock to remain in their first place position the rest of the way.