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Braves, Mets, and Marlins: 2 truths and 1 lie about the NL East

By West Jones |
Apr 1, 2023; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Atlanta Braves designated hitter Marcell Ozuna (20) reacts with right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) after hitting a solo home run against the Washington Nationals during the fourth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 1, 2023; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Atlanta Braves designated hitter Marcell Ozuna (20) reacts with right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) after hitting a solo home run against the Washington Nationals during the fourth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
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The NL East is one of the toughest divisions in all of baseball. It includes last year’s NL champions, the Philidelphia Phillies, the powerhouse Atlanta Braves, and the Steve Cohen-financed and stacked New York Mets. The Miami Marlins and the Washington Nationals are not real contenders at this point, but with Miami’s pitching and the young talent for the Nationals, they can sneak up and wreak havoc on even the best of teams.

In the vein of two truths and one lie, let us take a look at some developments and opinions that will stay around to the end of the year along with one that won’t age well. Let’s start with a truth about who will win the competitive division.

Truth: The Atlanta Braves will win the NL East again in 2023

Death, taxes, and the Atlanta Braves winning the NL East. The latter has been true the past five seasons, and a remarkable 17 out of the last 28 years. 

Last year, the Braves streaked across the finish line with a 101-61 record, highlighted by their last weekend of the regular season sweep of their rival, New York Mets. By gaining control of the tiebreaker with the sweep, the Braves were able to clinch yet another division title despite holding the same record as the Mets.

This year it shouldn’t come down to the last weekend of the season to determine who wins the NL East. Besides, the Braves don’t play the Mets after August 23 this year. I guess that the drama of last year was just too much for the baseball schedulers to handle two seasons in a row. The Braves do play the Phillies six times in mid-September but will finish the season with seven games against the Nationals and three at home against the Chicago Cubs.

In no way am I saying that the Mets and/or the Phillies won’t get a Wild Card spot, because both of those clubs have excellent teams. But as far as the division winner, it is going to be the Braves again. With the likes of a healthy Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Spencer Strider, and Bryce Elder to name a few, the Braves are poised for big things in 2023.

Apr 1, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez (3) hits a single during the first inning against the New York Mets at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 1, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez (3) hits a single during the first inning against the New York Mets at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports /

Truth: Miami’s Luis Arraez will win the batting title again

The 2022 American League batting champion (I know it is just the batting average champion, but until it gets changed, this is still a thing) was Luis Arraez. The 2023 National League batting champion will be Luis Arraez. Yes, Arraez will go back-to-back on the award, and do it in a new league and with a new team.

Last season Arraez won the title in the American League with the lowest batting average (.316) since 1968 when Carl Yastrzemski won it with an average of .301. While he wasn’t pushing Ted Williams status, to go out and play every day and end the year as your respective league’s batting champion is quite an accomplishment.

During the offseason, Arraez was traded from the Minnesota Twins to the Miami Marlins for pitcher Pablo Lopez and two prospects. Trading a batting champion isn’t something that happens very often. Historically guys of that caliber were protected and signed to long-term contracts with their teams. Not so much anymore. Arraez will be looking to join DJ LeMahieu as the only players to win batting titles in both leagues over the last 120 years.

Arraez is off to a blazing start this season. Entering Monday, he was hitting .500/.571/.556 in 11 games and 42 plate appearances. Obviously Arraez isn’t going to rake at this clip all year, but the start is setting him up nicely to finish on top yet again.

He is not a power hitter at all, in fact he has just 14 MLB homeruns to this name in 1,611 plate appearances. What he does do, is hit the baseball. According to Baseball Savant, over the last two seasons, Arraez ranks in the 98-100% range for strikeout% and whiff%. Arraez isn’t Tony Gwynn, not by a longshot, but his bat-to-ball skills are as close to Gwynn as we have seen in MLB for a number of years.

Mar 26, 2023; Port St. Lucie, Florida, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) talks to teammates on the mound against the Miami Marlins during the fourth inning at Clover Park. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 26, 2023; Port St. Lucie, Florida, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) talks to teammates on the mound against the Miami Marlins during the fourth inning at Clover Park. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports /

Lie: The New York Mets are better off without Jacob deGrom

Ok, now time for an NL East lie. The New York Mets will not be better off this year with Justin Verlander over Jacob deGrom. This has been a hot topic throughout the offseason and even into spring training and the regular season.

Much of the New York media and fan base have wanted to paint the picture that they are so glad to get rid of deGrom and how they are so much better off with Verlander. This simply isn’t the case. It isn’t that Verlander is not a fantastic pitcher. It is, however, that the move to let deGrom walk is neutral at best and more than likely a slight downgrade at this point in their careers.

Much of the argument that the Mets reporters have spun is how it is going to be great to have a pitcher that doesn’t get hurt as opposed to the often-injured deGrom. Let’s look at that for a moment.

From 2020-2023, deGrom has 234 innings pitched, 370 strikeouts, 2.19 ERA, and 1.80 FIP. In that same time frame, Verlander has 181 innings pitched, 192 strikeouts, 1.79 ERA, and 2.60 FIP. So, over the last three seasons (2020 being shortened by the pandemic) and the start of this year, deGrom has pitched in more innings, has nearly double the strikeouts, does have a higher ERA, but has a substantially lower FIP. That doesn’t look like a swap too slanted in the Mets favor to me.

Yes, injury risk plays a part in this, but again, as the numbers over the last three seasons have shown, both pitchers are at risk of substantial down time. There isn’t a pitcher in MLB that isn’t at risk of being sidelined either be it for the short or long term. In fairness, my take on this issue would have been the same even if both deGrom and Verlander had entered the regular season healthy. That isn’t in case though. Verlander started the season on the IL and will not be able to make his first start for the Mets until the end of April at the earliest.

Verlander is a first ballot Hall of Famer when the time comes, that is a true statement. He is fun to watch, and I hope that he recovers fully and quickly and makes a hand with the Mets. But the lie that the Mets are better off having the 40-year-old Verlander over the 34-year-old deGrom needs to stop.

Next. 2 truths and a lie about the AL East. dark

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