Pirates, Padres and Mets: Buy or sell their start to the 2023 season?

As the 2023 season hits the quarter mark, there have certainly been some surprises and disappointments across both the American and National League.

One look at the standings sees some of the teams that typically are at the top sitting in the bottom half of their division, while there are some teams that generally sit near the bottom of the standings seated in the top half.

Just over a quarter into the season, here are three National League teams that we can either buy or sell their start to 2023.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Buy or sell?

The Pirates began the season by sweeping the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park in the second series of the season. For a good chunk of the first quarter, Pittsburgh sat in first place in the NL Central, but has hit the skids recently falling behind the Milwaukee Brewers.

They avoided a sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday when Mitch Keller improved to 5-1 after seven shutout innings, allowing just four hits and striking out 13, lowering his ERA to 2.38. One reason for the Pirates’ start to the season is their pitching has the ninth-best ERA in the majors after Keller’s gem in Baltimore. Offensively, they are in the bottom half of the league, and that played a part in their skid where they recently lost 11 of 13 games. Eight of these losses were to the Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, and Orioles from the loaded American League East.

Oneil Cruz’s injury is a big blow to the Pirates. However, the schedule does scale back a bit with a series coming up against the Detroit Tigers and then the Arizona Diamondbacks after a brutal stretch against the top three teams in the AL East. They can produce runs in different ways, their pitching is up and coming as well and that’s a recipe for success.

Buy: They have been a fun group to watch and are winning games they would not have won last season. Looking at the rest of the division, there is no reason to think they can’t hang around the Brewers all summer and push them. Their bullpen is good, something you need nowadays and they certainly are a team on the way up for the future with Bryan Reynolds locked up. It’s time to pay attention to them.

New York Mets

There was a lot of hype surrounding the Mets entering the season, but things went off the rails starting in March. Closer Edwin Diaz suffered a torn patellar tendon celebrating Puerto Rico’s win over the Dominican Republic at the 2023 World Baseball Classic. A big blow after Diaz recorded 32 saves in 2022 with a 1.31 ERA.

Then in April, Max Scherzer received a 10-game suspension after being ejected in Los Angeles for having several interactions with umpires during in-between inning substance checks and having sticky hands. In six starts this season, he’s 3-2 with a 4.88 ERA, not something the Mets can afford to have continued.

Offensively, New York has struggled. Pete Alonso is hitting just .232, Jeff McNeil .264, Francisco Lindor .223, and Sterling Marte .235. Brandon Nimmo is the only one over .300 at .320. Alonso has been boom or bust, with 13 home runs and 41 strikeouts. Lindor has whiffed 43 times. Yikes.

Sell: Like the Padres, there’s too much talent to continue this slide all season. Obviously, they need a spark, but looking at some of the teams ahead of them in the standings, there is no way that they finish the season ahead of the Mets. Once this team figures it out, they will be a factor as the season goes along.