In the blink of an eye, two months of the 2023 Major League Baseball season have come and gone. A lot can (and probably will) change between now and the end of the season, but here would be my Most Valuable Player, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year picks if the ballot was due today.
Who’s leading in the MLB awards races, including MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year?
Note: All numbers were current as of Thursday, June 8, 2023
American League MVP
1. Shohei Ohtani
2023 stats: .275/.353/.551 (145 wRC+), 0. BsR, 3.30 ERA, 3.12 xERA, 3.98 FIP, 3.30 xFIP, 3.31 SIERA, 2.9 fWAR
Shohei Ohtani isn’t off to the best start, but Ohtani’s standards are much different than any other player in the history of baseball. After winning the MVP in 2021, Ohtani had an even better year in 2022, but a historic season from Aaron Judge was the only thing that kept him from winning the award in consecutive years.
In 2023, with a wRC+ higher than his teammate Mike Trout’s and an ERA slightly above Clayton Kershaw’s, Ohtani has essentially combined to be as good as two of the game’s best to ever play on both sides of the ball. As long as he doesn’t get hurt or traded to a National League team, Ohtani is in the driver’s seat to win his second MVP, even though he hasn’t fully played up to his standard.
2. Wander Franco
2023 stats: 59 G, .308/.372/.496 (146 wRC+), 9 DRS, 7 OAA, 1.6 BsR, 3.2 fWAR
Due to an in-season call-up in 2021 and due to injury in 2022, Wander Franco has yet to play a full season at the major league level. In 2023, though, Franco has stayed healthy and showcased why he is one of the sport’s most sought-after players.
While Franco was good across his first two seasons with the Rays, it wasn’t quite the production everyone expected from the former consensus No. 1 prospect. However, Franco has exceeded any former expectations in 2023 as he’s emerged as elite at the plate and in the field.
With his elite plate discipline and contact skills, Franco has hit for the most power (.188 ISO, .496 SLG) of his career, taking his offense to new heights. Additionally, Franco’s 9 Defensive Runs Saved and 7 Outs Above Average are already career highs and respectively lead all shortstops. If that wasn’t enough, Franco’s 21 stolen bases are the second-most in the AL. Barring injuries expect Franco to battle for his first MVP in 2023 and many future years.
3. Aaron Judge
2023 stats: 49 G, .291/.404/.674 (188 wRC+), -5 DRS, 1 OAA, 0.2 BsR, 2.8 fWAR
If not for a stint on the Injured List, Aaron Judge could be atop my MVP rankings. Even with his 10-game absence, the American League home run king has picked up right where he left off from his record-setting 2022 season.
The captain’s 188 wRC+ is the best in the major leagues while his 19 homers sit behind only Pete Alonso’s 21 (who has played in 11 more games than Judge). Depending on how long his new IL stint lasts, Judge could find himself in the MVP conversation for the fourth year of his career.
Honorable mentions: Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette
National League MVP
1. Ronald Acuña Jr.
2023 stats: 61 G, .331/.404/.555 (157 wRC+), 4 DRS, -5 OAA, 3.5 BsR, 2.9 fWAR
Halfway through the 2021 season, Ronald Acuña Jr. was well on his way toward winning his first MVP. Until he wasn’t. On July 10, Acuña tore his ACL, forcing him to miss the remainder of the season and the start of the 2022 season.
Acuña returned earlier than expected in 2022 allowing him to play in 119 games, but his production wasn’t the same. While he still accumulated 2.1 fWAR, Acuña produced the worst offensive and defensive seasons of his career.
In 2023, Acuña looks much like the pre-ACL tear version of himself, but he’s been even better. Although his play in right field has been inconsistent, Acuña’s 157 wRC+ is the second best in the NL while his 28 stolen bases lead the NL. Acuña struggled to return to full strength in 2022, but this year, he’s back and better than ever.
2. Sean Murphy
2023 stats: 51 G, .287/.389/.552 (154 wRC+), 3 DRS, 6.3 FRM, -3.1 BsR, 2.9 fWAR
Over the offseason, the Atlanta Braves sent a haul in a three-team trade that netted them Sean Murphy. Before the trade, Murphy was heavily regarded as one of the best backstops in the league. In Atlanta, and more importantly, out of Oakland, Murphy has been the best catcher in baseball.
Murphy has consistently been rated as one of the best defensive catchers in the majors, and he’s continued his dominance in 2023. Additionally, Murphy has consistently swung a good bat — especially for a catcher — but in 2023, Murphy’s production at the plate has straight-up been elite, for any position player.
Murphy’s 154 wRC+ is the fifth-best in the NL and when you pair that with elite defense behind the plate, you get one of the most valuable players in baseball. With his excellence on both sides of the ball, Murphy’s name should be in the middle of all MVP conversations.
3. Luis Arraez
2023 stats: 58 G, .403/.452/.495 (162 wRC+), 4 DRS, -3 OAA, -5.1 BsR, 2.1 fWAR
The last time a player in Major League Baseball hit .400 or better in a season was Ted Williams in 1941. Right now, Luis Arraez is on pace to accomplish the nearly impossible feat.
In an offseason trade, the Marlins acquired Luis Arraez in a blockbuster that saw them send a package headlined by Pablo Lopez to the Minnesota Twins. Even with the change of scenery, Arraez has continued to do what he does best … get on base. In addition to his batting average leading the majors, Arraez’s .452 OBP is the best in baseball while his 162 wRC+ is the best in the NL.
Whether he’s able to hit .400 or not, Arraez will definitely put together a fantastic offseason, but if he does get to or near the .400 mark, Arraez will definitely get a lot of love from the voters to win MVP.
Honorable mentions: Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts
AL Cy Young
1. Kevin Gausman
2023 stats: 82.0 IP, 2.63 ERA, 3.19 xERA, 2.30 FIP, 2.54 xFIP, 2.73 SIERA, 3.0 fWAR
Since his breakout season in 2020, Kevin Gausman has consistently been one of the best, yet most underrated pitchers in baseball. Last season, Guasman had the same fWAR as NL Cy Young Sandy Alcantara, but he finished 10th in AL Cy Young voting.
This season, Gausman has continued to excel, with his 2.63 ERA on pace to be the best of his career. Gausman’s uncanny ability to generate strikeouts and whiffs while limiting walks has propelled him to lead the AL with a 28.9 K-BB%.
With Alek Manoah now in the minor leagues, Gausman’s performance has meant that much more to the Blue Jays, and he should without a doubt be in the Cy Young conversation at the end of the season.
2. Nathan Eovaldi
2023 stats: 80.1 IP, 2.24 ERA, 2.79 xERA, 2.45 FIP, 3.30 xFIP, 3.41 SIERA, 2.7 fWAR
Over the offseason, the Texas Rangers signed Jacob deGrom, thinking he’d likely be in the Cy Young conversation at this point in the season. deGrom is hurt, but it turns out the Rangers signed Eovaldi to be their Cy Young.
After leading the American League in pitcher fWAR in 2021, Eovaldi dealt with injuries in 2022, forcing him to pitch only 109.1 innings. After a down season, the Rangers swooped in and signed Eovaldi to a relatively team-friendly two-year, $34 million contract.
In 2023, the 33-year-old has done what he does best: eat innings, avoid walks and get his fair share of strikeouts. If he stays healthy, Eovaldi is on pace to have the best season of his career, and if he does that, he’ll definitely be in the Cy Young conversation at the end of the season.
3. Framber Valdez
2023 stats: 79.0 IP, 2.16 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 2.87 FIP, 2.70 xFIP, 2.96 SIERA, 2.3 fWAR
Like Gausman, Framber Valdez broke out in the 2020 season. However, an injury caused Valdez to miss the start of the 2021 season, thus the world had to wait an extra year to see how special of a pitcher Valdez is.
In his first full season, Valdez dominated, finishing fifth in AL Cy Young after pitching 201.1 innings to a 2.82 ERA. In 2023, the groundball king’s groundball rate is still elite, but now he’s striking out more batters while walking less.
With Justin Verlander now a New York Met, Valdez is the guy in Houston, and he’s looking the part extremely well. If Valdez remains productive down the stretch, he’s a surefire thing to finish top five in Cy Young voting.
Honorable mentions: Sonny Gray, Shane McClanahan
NL Cy Young
1. Zac Gallen
2023 stats: 78.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 3.88 xERA, 2.23 FIP, 3.16 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA, 3.1 fWAR
Zac Gallen pitched brilliantly across his first 152 innings in the big leagues between 2019 and 2020, but he took a step back in his first full season in 2021. However, in 2022, Gallen’s ace potential was on full display, especially when he tossed 41.1 consecutive scoreless innings.
In 2023, Gallen has continued dominance, as his 3.1 fWAR leads the NL by a landslide. With the Diamondbacks surging, they’ll need Gallen to continue his dominance. If keeps pitching as he as, Gallen weill surely be in striking distance of winning his first Cy Young.
2. Spencer Strider
2023 stats: 69.2 IP, 2.97 ERA, 2.70 xERA, 2.60 FIP, 2.83 xFIP, 2.63 SIERA, 2.1 fWAR
Seemingly coming out of nowhere, Spencer Strider was arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball last season. Strider’s 1.83 FIP was the fourth-lowest a pitcher posted in a single season since 2010, ranking behind only Corbin Burnes (1.63 FIP in 2021) and Clayton Kershaw (1.80 FIP in 2016, 1.81 FIP in 2014).
Although the home run ball has hit him much more in 2023 than in 2022, Strider has built off his rookie season. If Strider’s 38.3 K% as a rookie wasn’t impressive enough, he’s improved that clip to 40.6% this season, the highest among all starting pitchers in the majors.
Although he didn’t pitch enough last season to qualify for the Cy Young, that shouldn’t be a problem for Strider in 2023 as he consistently dominates deep into games.
3. Justin Steele
2023 stats: 68.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 3.10 xERA, 2.85 FIP, 4.00 xFIP, 4.05 SIERA, 2.0 fWAR
Quietly, Justin Steele has become one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. Although he’s not like Strider consistently striking guys out, he commands the ball really well and mostly keeps batted balls on the ground and hit softly.
Steele’s average exit velocity ranks in the 95th percentile while his hard hit% ranks in the 95th percentile. Despite a weak strikeout rate, Steele remains effective because he stays in the strike zone (82nd percentile), and when opposing batters make contact, it’s usually poor.
In the analytic-heavy baseball environment, Steele is somewhat of an anomaly, but that’s what helps propel him to be one of the NL’s best pitchers.
Honorable mentions: Logan Webb, Marcus Stroman
AL Rookie of the Year
1. Ryan Noda
2023 stats: 59 G, .255/.415/.473 (158 wRC+), 2 DRS, 0 OAA, 1.3 BsR, 2.0 fWAR
The Oakland A’s have been the worst team in baseball, but Ryan Noda’s emergence has been a huge bright spot for the team. Despite dominating in Double-A and Triple-A in the Dodgers farm system in 2021 and 2022, Noda was put on waivers following the 2022 season, and the A’s picked him up.
Noda made his major league debut on Opening Day, and ever since receiving regular playing time, Noda has ascended into one of the best hitters in the AL. With his Joey Gallo-esque approach at the plate, Noda strikes out a lot, but he walks at the best clip in the big leagues (100th percentile) and consistently barrels the ball (93rd percentile).
Among all qualified position players in MLB, Noda’s 158 wRC+ is the fifth-best, showcasing that he’s been one of the best hitters in baseball despite being a rookie. Even though he’s probably due to regress (.393 BABIP), Noda has been superb to start the season, and I’d be surprised if he’s not in the Rookie of the Year conversation at the end of the season.
2. Josh Jung
2023 stats: 58 G, .293/.343/.511 (136 wRC+), 0 DRS, 2 OAA, -2.7 BsR, 1.7 fWAR
Despite struggling in his first major league stint at the end of 2022, Josh Jung has been as advertised in 2023. In a Texas Rangers lineup that rakes from top to bottom, Jung has produced in the middle of the order, slashing an impressive .293/.343/.511.
In addition to producing at the plate, Jung has been solid at the hot corner, a big reason why I have him ranked higher than Masataka Yoshida, who has struggled immensely defensively.
With Jung back to full health, he’s played phenomenally and he will definitely be in the Rookie of the Year race.
3. Hunter Brown
2023 stats: 68.1 IP, 3.69 ERA, 3.54 xERA, 3.30 FIP, 3.11 xFIP, 3.40 SIERA, 1.7 fWAR
Hunter Brown’s 20.1-inning cameo at the end of 2022 showed us exactly what Hunter Brown is: a stud. With his Justin Verlander pitching style, Brown possesses an elite strikeout rate, which has helped him pitch to a 3.40 SIERA, the eighth-best in the American League.
While it will be interesting to see how Brown pitches down the stretch — his career high in innings pitched 126.1 innings last season between Triple-A and Houston — he’s put himself in a great spot to contend for Rookie of the Year, and he’ll surely play a major role in how the Astros season plays out.
Honorable mentions: Masataka Yoshida, Yennier Cano
NL Rookie of the Year
1. Corbin Carroll
2023 stats: 59 G, .300/.387/.541 (149 wRC+), -1 DRS, 4 OAA, 5.7 BsR, 2.8 fWAR
Corbin Carroll dominated in his first 32 major league games last season, earning him an eight-year, $111 million extension. In 2023, Carroll has proved he’s been worth every penny of that contract and more.
The 22-year-old is one of the few players in MLB that doesn’t particularly have a flaw. The sweet-swinging lefty consistently hit the ball hard, for contact and for power. When he gets on base, Carroll’s 99th-percentile sprint speed and base running awareness are major threats, as his 5.7 BsR is the best in baseball. Although his arm isn’t the strongest, Carroll’s speed and outfield jump turn him into a plus defensively.
Barring Elly De La Cruz going on a Jeremy Lin-style run over the next 100 games, Carroll should easily win Rookie of the Year, and he might even find himself near the top of some MVP ballots if he keeps performing as he has.
2. Francisco Alvarez
2023 stats: 40 G, .238/.290/.508 (119 wRC+), 5 DRS, 5.4 FRM, -3.2 BsR, 1.0 fWAR
Francisco Alvarez didn’t make the Mets’ Opening Day roster, but ever since his early season call-up, he’s proved that he’s the best catcher on New York’s roster. The 21-year-old has been a highly touted prospect throughout his trips through the minor leagues, and he’s showing why in 2023.
Although he’s struggling to hit for a high average and consistently get on base, Alvarez’s power has been on full display as his .508 SLG is the third-best among all catchers in the majors (minimum 130 plate appearances).
Alvarez’s best trait, though, has been his defense. With 5 DRS and 5.4 FRM, there’s a reason the Mets’ pitching staff has been pleading to have Alvarez behind the plate, and if he continues to develop defensively, he has a great chance of turning into one of the best catchers in baseball.
3. James Outman
2023 stats: 58 G, .230/.319/.454 (111 wRC+), -2 DRS, 3 OAA, 1.3 BsR, 1.4 fWAR
When the Dodgers non-tendered Cody Bellinger, they opened up the floor for James Outman to take over as the center fielder. After impressing in spring training, Outman made the Opening Day roster and started in center field.
Outman has impressed this season, being above-average offensively, defensively and on the bases. While he’s been good in all three facets of the game, Outman isn’t elite in a certain area, but he’s stepped in well for Los Angeles and he will look to finish his rookie year out strong.
Honorable mentions: Kodai Senga, Matt McClain