It is that time of year to start making award predictions, but as I have always liked to do, it's also time to make dark horse predictions.
The term "dark horse" gets thrown around a lot at the beginning of a new season, so I wanted to make it clear that my version of a "dark horse" awards candidate is, for the most part, an average to above-average player (based on track record) with the upside to put up a Cy Young/MVP-caliber season. That is what you'll find in these three pitchers for the most part.
Tarik Skubal was the consensus dark horse Cy Young candidate headed into last season, which kind of defeats the purpose of the exercise if everyone is picking the same player.
With that being said, I did my best to abide by my rules, so here are my three dark horse candidates for the 2025 American League Cy Young award.
1. Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays
If you're unfamiliar with Ryan Pepiot, his name might ring a bell for you as part of the return in the Tyler Glasnow trade between the Rays and the Dodgers last offseason. If you still don't know who he is, it's time to acquaint yourself with the 27-year-old right-hander, as he is primed for a big season in 2025.
In his first two seasons with the Dodgers, Pepiot was unable to string together any significant amount of playing time, as he dealt with injury issues and there was simply not enough room for him in the big league rotation. However, he put together some solid numbers during his time in Los Angeles. He threw 78.1 innings between 2022 and 2023, and posted a 2.76 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.
Pepiot's upside earned him a full-time spot in Tampa Bay's starting rotation last year — the first time in his big league career that he threw 100 or more innings in a season. He started 26 games, the second most on the Rays last year, and performed very well, posting a 3.60 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, and a 17.4 K-BB% over 130 innings. Had it not been for two separate trips to the 15-day IL, Pepiot likely would have had one of the better seasons among American League pitchers.
What makes Pepiot unique is his success with his four-seam fastball. The offering averages 94.9 mph on the radar gun, which is fairly low for an elite fastball in today's game. However, it yields great results. The pitch ranks within the top 20 across multiple advanced categories, including run value (10), BAA (.181), xBA (.172), SLG (.330), xSLG (.347), xwOBA (.292), and whiff% (31.4).
On top of his outstanding fastball, Pepiot has a deep arsenal, displaying a changeup, cutter, slider, and curveball. Because of a pitch mix that lends the ability to get both right-handed and left-handed hitters out, there isn't too much discrepancy between his platoon splits, which is an important aspect of being a successful pitcher at the big league level.
If Pepiot can make 30 starts and deliver 150 or more innings, I believe he can find himself in the Cy Young conversation (or at least earn down-ballot votes) in 2025.
2. Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
Despite deploying a pretty banged up rotation for the majority of 2024, the Guardians found a lot of success on the mound on their way to an American League Central division crown. Tanner Bibee was the face of that rotation, logging both the most starts with 31 and innings with 173.2.
Last year was arguably Bibee's "breakout" season (depending on how you view the term), following an impressive rookie campaign in which he finished second in American League Rookie of the Year voting.
Bibee has been a very solid starting pitcher, but hasn't quite entered that upper-tier of American League starters such as Tarik Skubal, Gerrit Cole, or Logan Gilbert. Among the 30 qualified AL starters, Bibee hovered around the top-10 in multiple categories last year. He ranked 11th in ERA (3.47), 10th in FIP (3.56), 11th in WHIP (1.12), 7th in K-BB% (20.1), and 11th in fWAR (3.3). He's also one of just six pitchers in the AL with back to back 3.0 fWAR seasons.
Since his debut, Bibee has the lowest barrel% among AL starters at 6.6, and also ranks within the top 10 with a 37.5 hard-hit% and an 88.6 average EV. Along with Bibee, there are only two other qualified AL starters that can say they have a sub-league-average barrel%, hardhit%, and average EV, paired with an above-average K-BB% (Pablo Lopez and Hunter Brown).
Bibee has nearly an identical arsenal to Pepiot, but it's his cutter that is elite. His cutter was one of the more valuable pitches in all of baseball, yielding a BAA of .141 which ranked third among all pitch types, only behind Framber Valdez's curveball and Tanner Scott's fastball. Paired with a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball, Bibee has the arsenal to dominate across a full season.
His 2024 performance was quite consistent with his rookie year, leaving any concerns about regression to the wayside. Bibee also just turned 26, so if anything, he's only going to get better.
He has a great combination of ability to strike out a lot of hitters while limiting a large amount of walks and inducing a lot of soft contact. If all of those skills can click at a high level in the same season, the ceiling for Bibee is a Cy Young-caliber campaign.
3. Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins
My final dark horse AL Cy Young candidate is Bailey Ober, who has appeared on similar lists in past years — and for good reason. Ober is an imposing figure on the mound, standing in at 6'9" and 260 pounds, and has been one of the more underrated pitchers since his first full season in 2023, as well as one of the more successful Twins starters in that time frame.
Due to some nagging injuries, Ober only threw 148.1 innings between his first two seasons in 2021 and 2022, but showed a lot of promise as a future mainstay in the rotation. Over those two seasons, he posted a 3.82 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, and a 19.3 K-BB%. 2023 was his first season with 100 or more innings, and then he finally pieced together his first full season in 2024.
His numbers from last year don't jump off the page by any means, but there are some numbers under the hood that suggest Ober can produce elite results. He ranked roughly in the middle of the pack among AL starters last year with a 3.98 ERA, 3.82 FIP, and 2.9 fWAR over 178.2 innings, but also has a Baseball Savant page with plenty of red marks.
Similar to Tanner Bibee, Ober has a unique ability to not only limit hard contact, but also to strike out hitters at an above-average rate while walking hitters at a below-average rate.
He produces a ton of chases outside of the zone (93rd percentile) as well as plenty of whiffs (76th percentile), which is how he racks up his strikeouts at nearly a 27% rate. Because hitters are often chasing pitches, it's tough for them to make solid contact, which has resulted in an elite 3.22 xERA and .209 xBA for Ober. The combination of the two skills make for a high floor for the intimidating righty.
What I find to be unique about Ober is that he's not overpowering, despite his size. He only averages 91.7 mph on his fastball, but also creates a crazy amount of extension at 7.3 feet because of his long levers. That type of extension gives the illusion that the fastball is coming in harder than it actually is.
On top of that, Ober does have an elite pitch, which has become the theme among these three starters. His changeup is one of the best in baseball, ranking within the top five among changeups in run value (8), BAA (.154), xBA (.164), SLG (.285), xSLG (.263), xwOBA (.206), and whiff% (39.5). Given his tools across the board, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ober in the conversation for AL Cy Young at the end of the year.