3 teams that look like pretenders entering 2025 MLB season

Offseason news has slowed down recently relative to what December brang, but a few top-tier free agents — namely Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Jack Flaherty — are still available. Teams still have time to make moves, even as spring training nears.

The Chicago Cubs' pitchers and catchers report to training camp on Feb. 9, while the rest of the league's pitchers and catchers report between Feb. 11-13. Position players tend to report five days later than their pitchers and catchers.

Looking towards the 2025 season, I'll be examining teams that I deem to be pretenders, potential surprises, or those that are outright lost in the coming weeks.

In this article, we will discuss three pretenders: teams that, on the surface, appear to be good, but whose outlook is not as promising when looking under the hood.

Seattle Mariners

In 2024, the Seattle Mariners finished three-and-a-half games behind the Houston Astros for the AL West division title and one game behind the Detroit Tigers for the last Wild Card spot. The team succeeded by heavily relying on pitching. In ERA, the starting rotation finished first (3.38), and the bullpen ranked ninth (3.78).

The offense, however, was atrocious, ranking 29th in BA (.224), first in SOs (1,625), and 22nd in RBIs (642).

With Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo returning to the mound in 2025, one would think adding offense would be a priority. However, the only notable acquisition to the lineup thus far has been Donovan Solano, who does nothing to improve the offense besides getting on base. Over 283 at-bats playing for the San Diego Padres in 2024, he hit .286/.343/.417 with eight home runs and 35 RBIs.

There is still time to improve the offense. Over the last few weeks, Castillo has been linked to many trade rumors in the team's attempt to add some hitters, but nothing has come close to being completed.

Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and some lower-tier sluggers are still available in free agency, and they could all significantly impact one of the worst offenses from last season.

Perhaps the biggest factor in the Mariners' placement on this list that the AL West may be surprisingly strong next season. The Houston Astros have won the division title six of the previous seven seasons (though they may take a step back if they lose Bregman on top of Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly). The only exception was the Athletics winning the 2020 COVID-19 shortened season.

The Rangers, 2023 World Series Champions, should be healthy after an injury-plagued 2024 season, and the Athletics, who showed flashes of being able to win last season despite their low payroll, decided to start spending money on veteran players now that the team has left Oakland. Even the Angels have been more active than the Mariners this offseason.

The Mariners' lack of productive offensive pieces could hinder the team's ability to win in what could be a highly competitive division.

Minnesota Twins

After losing to the Houston Astros in the ALDS in 2023, the Minnesota Twins failed to make the playoff in 2024 despite entering the year as prohibitive division favorites.

The AL Central was surprisingly good last season (obviously not including the Chicago White Sox). Three teams, including the division winner Cleveland Guardians, made the postseason because of tremendously unexpected seasons by the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers.

If there was ever a time to be aggressive, this offseason was it. The Tigers and Royals have made moves to improve, but the Twins have not added anyone except acquiring Mickey Gasper from the Boston Red Sox and prospect Diego Cartaya from the Los Angeles Dodgers in separate trades.

Pitching was a big weakness for the Twins last season. Even though the entire starting rotation returns, they ranked 22nd in ERA last season (4.36), and the bullpen was not much better, ranking 19th (4.12).

If the Twins want to compete for the AL Central, they need to add some pitching before Spring Training, but they do not appear to be close to doing this. They've been mentioned in few rumors as the team undergoes a likely ownership change.

The team ranks 12th in the highest Competitive Balance Tax Space available. There's clearly room for the franchise to add talent, even during a transitionary period in its history.

If they decide to add some pitching, Jack Flaherty is available, as are older veterans who could sign a one-year deal, such as Max Scherzer, Kyle Gibson, Clayton Kershaw, (who will likely remain with the Dodgers) and Lance Lynn.

San Diego Padres

This will assuredly be the most controversial pick of the team listed here, but hear me out.

You may wonder how a team that lost the 2024 NLDS to the Dodgers 3-2 is a pretender. President of Baseball Operations and General Manager A.J. Preller is not shy about making aggressive moves and spending lots of money.

Just recently, in 2022, they acquired Juan Soto from the Washington Nationals; in 2023, they signed then 30-year-old Manny Machado to an 11-year $350 million extension and then 36-year-old Yu Darvish to a six-year $108 million deal. However, this offseason, all the Padres have done is avoid arbitration by giving eligible players one-year contracts.

In a division with the defending World Series champions — who have been busy this offseason by signing Tanner Scott, Roki Sasaki, Blake Snell, Michael Conforto, Hyeseong Kim, and re-signing Teoscar Hernádez — it would seem the Padres would need to keep up by adding top-tier talent, but they've failed to do so.

Even the San Francisco Giants (adding Willy Adames and Justin Verlander) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (adding Corbin Burnes and Josh Naylor) have improved their rosters.

The Padres are returning most significant production from 2024, but they've already lost Scott, Kyle Higashioka and Jurrickson Profar (among others). They're banking on internal improvements saving the day come 2025.

Jackson Merrill had an outstanding rookie year last season, hitting .292/.326/.500 with 24 HRs, 90 RBIs, and 16 SBs. He finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year Award behind Pittsburgh Pirates star Paul Skenes. The Padres hope to get the same production from one of their top prospects, Tirso Ornelas, who Fangraphs projects to crack the Opening Day roster in left field.

The Padres need to improve their back-end starting pitchers. The top three starters have been up-and-down over the years, but if the Padres want to dethrone the Dodgers, they need a repeat performance of 2024's production.

Dylan Cease had a bounce back season, pitching to a 3.47 ERA after an abysmal 2023 when he posted a 4.58 ERA; Yu Darvish battled injuries all season but posted a 3.31 ERA over 82.1 innings; and Michael King erupted in his first full season as a starting pitcher.

The projected fourth and fifth starters, Randy Vasquez and Matt Waldron, had 2024 ERAs of 4.87 and 4.91, respectively. The team's philosophy appears to be hoping their offense can light up the scoreboard, because the starting rotation could struggle to limit runs, especially if Cease is traded or Darvish cannot stay healthy.

The Dodgers, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, and Atlanta Braves are teams at the top of the National League that added notable talent this offseason to get better, while the Padres unexpectedly chose to be stagnant.

They have the 25th lowest Competitive Balance Tax Space available, but they could still add discounted starting pitching. Andrew Heaney, Julio Teheran, or Anthony DeSclafani are a few names that could come at a cheap price and improve the depth in the starting rotation, while Flaherty represents their best chance to secure an impact starter after missing out on Roki Sasaki.

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