First-Round 2025 MLB Mock Draft: Ethan Holliday slips, college arms rise

With the college baseball season reaching its midway point and the high school baseball season quickly approaching postseason play, MLB Draft season is in full swing.

The 2025 draft class is one of the more unique classes in recent memory considering there is no clear-cut option to go first overall. On top of that, the collegiate class has dominated the draft over the past couple of seasons, but the high school class appears to be much deeper this year.

Success in the draft has become much more important as of late considering it shrank from 40 rounds to 20 rounds in 2021. Players are also entering farm systems closer to MLB-ready than they ever have been considering how advanced the collegiate game (and even the high school game) has become.

If an organization drafts the right player, that is a guy that can potentially make an impact at the big league level as soon as a year later — just look at what guys like Paul Skenes, Dylan Crews, and Wyatt Langford did last year after being selected at the top end of the 2023 draft.

This is my first mock draft of the season and is based on personal opinion of who I view to be the best players in the draft, but also based on where each team is believed to go with its first round pick by the industry.

1. Washington Nationals - Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State

The Nationals certainly have the toughest job of any team in this year's draft. As previously stated, there is no slam dunk number one option.

With the college class being a little thinner this year, it's likely that some of these teams at the top of the draft capitalize on their position and take the best collegiate players available. The Nationals are probably also looking for a player expected to be a fast mover that they can include in their current wave of prospects they are looking to build around headed into a window of contention. Jamie Arnold can be just that for the Nats.

Arnold was one of the best pitchers in college baseball last year as a sophomore, setting himself to be a very sought after draft prospect headed into the 2025 season. He hasn't missed a beat yet.

Arnold features an advanced three-pitch mix with a fastball and slider both earning 60 grades. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and shows great feel for mixing in the plus slider and changeup. He also possesses above-average control and command of the strike zone which really puts him over the top as the likely first college arm off the board in July.

2. Los Angeles Angels - Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma

If the Angels follow their recent trend, they are going to select a fast moving collegiate prospect. They haven't taken a high school prospect with their first pick since 2018 and that isn't expected to change.

They've taken a bat in each of the last three seasons, but it's likely they shift to the mound with pitchers dominating the top end of this year's collegiate class. The Angels have not selected within the top five since 1997, so now is their chance to take advantage and get the high-profile arm their farm has desperately needed.

Kyson Witherspoon is a right-handed pitcher that has shot up draft boards thus far in 2025. He has a live arm and is an athletic mover on the mound, making him very projectable as a starter at the next level. He has ran his fastball as high as 99 mph and also features a plus slider that he can use as a cutter at times. He mixes in a changeup as well that has flashed some success. Given his command continues to improve, there's a lot to like about his arsenal and physical tools that leads me to believe Witherspoon's name is called within the top five.

3. Seattle Mariners - Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)

The Mariners love their high school prospects, and they love their pitchers. With that being said, we're staying on the mound for the third overall pick. Considering how much steam Seth Hernandez has picked up this year, it's hard to see Seattle passing up on him if he's still available with the third pick.

Hernandez is a 6'4" right-handed arm with an advanced feel for the zone.. He has a 65-grade fastball that has touched 100 mph at the ripe age of 18, and sits anywhere from 95-98 mph.

What makes him unique is his ability to throw a plus offspeed pitch. His changeup is one of the few offspeed pitches among all draft prospects with a 60 grade attached to it. Younger pitchers tend to have minimal feel for a changeup with little to no control of it either. Hernandez happens to have both which really makes him a valuable arm. High school pitchers have been the riskiest demographic in the draft which is likely the only reason he's not projected to go first overall, however, there's a lot of superstar potential here.

4. Colorado Rockies - Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK)

It's tough to forecast where the Rockies plan to go with their pick at fourth overall. But it is fun to imagine the son of former Rockie great, Matt Holliday, taking the field for the Rockies. At the conclusion of the 2024 draft, Ethan Holliday was an immediate favorite to go first overall in 2025, just three years after his brother Jackson did the same.

Unfortunately for Ethan, his stock fell over the summer as he struggled to hit on the summer circuit against some of the top high school arms. However, he still possesses what is probably the best power upside in the draft.

He's standing in at 6'4", 215 lbs with room to add more power and has posted some of the top exit velocities in the class. If a team selects him within the top five, they're taking a risk with his hit tool, but if he can make enough contact at the next level, they will seriously cash in given what he's capable of in the power department. He's also expected to be an above-average defender at third base with a very strong arm.

5. St. Louis Cardinals - Aiva Arquette, 2B/SS, Oregon State

Fifth overall feels like a good spot for Aiva Arquette to end up. Between his bat and defense up the middle, he's arguably the top college position player in the class. With the lack of high end college bats this year, a team should select him within the top ten, if not the top five. The Cardinals have not shied away from college prospects in recent drafts, and if Arquette is available at fifth overall, it's hard to see them passing him up.

There are above-average tools for Arquette across the board as he boasts one of the better hit tools in the class along with a power tool that he has really grown into this year. He's a bit oversized for a position up the middle on the field but moves very well for his size and has a great arm, so there's a good shot he sticks at short at the next level.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates - Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)

A 2026 draft-eligible high school prospect that reclassified for 2025, Willits will be only 17 on draft day. The Pirates seemed to score on taking the top high school player last year in Konnor Griffin, and will have the opportunity to return to the well with the sixth overall pick. Willits is an advanced switch hitter with tools to stick as a shorstop.

7. Miami Marlins - Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)

Billy Carlson is another prospect on the long list of athletic, high school middle infielders — a demographic the Marlins are a fan of. Carlson has been one of the top risers in this year's class as one of the top defenders at shortstop, and is quickly growing into professional power at the plate.

8. Toronto Blue Jays - Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

The Blue Jays took a high profile college arm with their first round pick last year, and I can seem them going there again to beef up their farm system that lacks solid pitching depth. Bremner is one of the safer options on the mound in the class, and draws some similarities to Trey Yesavage, their first-round pick a year ago.

9. Cincinnati Reds - Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee

The Reds have stuck with fast moving college prospects with their first round picks in the past four drafts, and Gavin Kilen should offer the same luxury with how he has taken the college scene by storm in 2025. He has above-average bat to ball skills and has really grown into a lot of game power that I'm sure the Reds would love to see in action at Great American Ballpark some day.

10. Chicago White Sox - Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest

Given the defensive tools paired with his much improved bat, it's tough to see Marek Houston falling outside of the top ten. The poor White Sox couldn't be rewarded with at least a top five pick following the worst regular season of all time, but Houston will be a good consolation prize if he falls to them.

11. Athletics - Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana

The Athletics have hit on each of their last two first-round picks, both of which were fast moving college bats with advanced hit tools. A few of those should be on the board and available for the A's. Taylor has one of the most well-rounded bats in the class, providing a solid combination of hit and power — a similar skill set that made the A's fall in love with Nick Kurtz a year ago.

12. Texas Rangers - Jace Laviolette, OF, Texas A&M

Although he has fallen on plenty of draft boards, I don't see Laviolette falling much further than this. We are still talking about one of the premier power hitters in the country that can also provide elsewhere despite his immense frame. The offensive profile is very similar to Ethan Holliday's, but Laviolette has failed to hit at the same level he did in 2024, which warrants the lower selection.

13. San Francisco Giants - Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina

It only feels right that Buster Posey takes a catcher with his first draft pick as the Giants' President of Baseball Operations. Luke Stevenson is the consensus top catcher in this year's draft, possessing advanced defensive ability, a 60-grade arm, and plus power from the left side of the plate.

14. Tampa Bay Rays - Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX)

The Rays have been big fans of athletic, up the middle types in their recent drafts, and Kayson Cunningham fits the role well. Cunningham has arguably the best hit tool in the high school class along with a 60-grade run tool and skills to stick at either shortstop or second base long term.

15. Boston Red Sox - Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)

The Red Sox haven't taken a pitcher with their first-round pick since 2017, but that could change if Kruz Schoolcraft is still on the board here. He's a tough pitcher to pass up on as he's nearly a carbon-copy of Noah Schultz, the White Sox's first round selection in 2022, and now the top pitching prospect in baseball. Schoolcraft has the best two-way potential in the draft, but the expectation is that he ends up sticking on the mound.

16. Minnesota Twins - Dean Curley, SS, Tennessee

The Twins took a collegiate shortstop with the 21st overall pick last year, and if Dean Curley is still available at this point, he should join Kaelen Culpepper in Minnesota's farm system. Curley has been one of the biggest risers in the collegiate class this year, taking both his hit and power tool to another level while playing average to above-average defense at shortstop where he flashes a 65 grade arm.

17. Chicago Cubs - Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona

The Cubs cashed in big last year with their selection of Cam Smith, but unfortunately parted ways with him in the Kyle Tucker trade. They'll be looking to replicate that success and they may return to the college position player group to do so. Brendan Summerhill is a high floor player that doesn't have a single elite tool, but does everything well, making him a safe option here at 17th overall.

18. Arizona Diamondbacks - Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson

Since they drafted Corbin Carroll in 2019, Arizona has pretty clearly prioritized high level athletes. Cannarella fits the mold of what they have been looking for and is projected to land somewhere in the back half of the first round anyway. He has an above-average hit tool and plays premier defense in center field that should make up for his lack of power.

19. Baltimore Orioles - Cameron Appenzeller, LHP, Glenwood HS (IL)

The Orioles have been among the best when it comes to drafting, and it shows at the big league level. What also shows at the big league level is that they need to develop more high profile pitchers, and that of course starts with the draft.

Appenzeller is a very projectable 6'6" lefty that has touched the mid-90s on his fastball and has flashed above-average offspeed and breaking stuff. They haven't taken a pitcher in the first round since 2018 when they selected Grayson Rodriguez, and if they can hit on Appenzeller the way they have their position player picks, they could have an ace in the pipeline.

20. Milwaukee Brewers - Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA)

It's honestly tough to see Neyens falling here at 20, but if he does, he certainly fits what the Brewers have looked for in recent drafts. There's plus power from the left side of the plate, and while there has been swing and miss concern, it's believed he will make enough contact at the next level to make the power count. Plus, he's got the arm and solid athleticism to stick at third base as well.

21. Houston Astros - Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest

The Astros have stuck with college bats with each of their first round picks since 2020, and there's a good chance the trend continues this year. Conrad is somewhat of a risky pick here as he won't play the remainder of the season due to a shoulder injury. However, this was a hitter on a trajectory towards a potential top ten selection. If he returns to form when healthy, he could be a steal at 21st overall.

22. Atlanta Braves - Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (FL)

The Braves have had a pretty clear strategy with their first round picks over the past five years, and that is to prioritize high floor pitchers. Aaron Watson feels like a pretty safe option if you're looking for a pitcher that can stick as a starter at the next level. The fastball, breaking, and offspeed stuff are all above-average offerings and he possesses great pitchability for a high school arm as well.

23. Kansas City Royals - Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA)

This is simply another case of a player coming off the board due to the fact they can't fall much further. Fien's bat is easily first round caliber and has defensive tools to remain as an average third base defender at the next level. Coming out of the summer circuit last year, there was some buzz around Fien potentially having the best bat in the high school class.

24. Detroit Tigers - Max Belyeu, OF, Texas

Max Belyeu is another player out for the remainder of his respective season due to injury, but is just too good to fall out of the first round. It's a fractured thumb so it's not a lingering injury that will haunt him and the Tigers down the road. Belyeu possesses a combination of both an above-average hit and power tool at the plate with average corner outfield defense and a plus arm.

25. San Diego Padres - Brady Ebel, SS, Corona HS (CA)

The Padres are just about the only team in the league you can count on taking a high school prospect with their first-round pick. They haven't selected a collegiate player in the first round since 2016. The best high school prospect left on the board at this point is Brady Ebel out of Corona High School. Ebel is a high floor player that does multiple things well, something the Padres have typically looked for in recent selections.

26. Philadelphia Phillies - Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)

The Phillies are another team that has leaned towards the athletic, up the middle types in recent years, and have also predominately pulled from the high school class. With that being said, Daniel Pierce is a great fit here. Pierce is one of the more well-rounded players in the high school class, possessing a plus hit tool while he is growing into more power. He also plays a solid shortstop while flashing an above-average arm.

27. Cleveland Guardians - Tre Phelps, OF/3B, Georgia

Based on their recent draft history, it's tough to point out a certain trend in Cleveland's philosophy which leads me to believe it's a situation where they are looking to take the best player available. If that's the case, Tre Phelps seems to be the next name off the board here. Phelps is expected to be a faster mover due to his above-average contact ability and power tool at the plate.

Note: There are ten picks between this point in the draft, but to ensure every team's first pick is covered, we've skipped ahead to the New York Mets at No. 38.

38 (CB-A). New York Mets - Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee

The next three picks (Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers) all fall within the competitive balance round because all three teams received a ten-pick penalty due to exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax.

Liam Doyle is a pitcher that has gained a lot of steam this year, showcasing a fastball that has reached triple digits and also sports the highest strikeout rate in Division-1 baseball as this is being written.

39 (CB-A). New York Yankees - Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas

The Yankees have certainly leaded towards college bats in recent drafts, and the top college bat projected to still be available here is Wehiwa Aloy. The shortstop out of Arkansas has steadily risen up draft boards this spring, making noticeable improvements both at the plate and on the field. While a move to second or third may be on the horizon, he has what it takes to stick as a bat-first shortstop for at least the near future.

40 (CB-A). Los Angeles Dodgers - Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina

Caden Bodine has regularly been ranked as the third-best catcher behind Luke Stevenson and Ike Irish. Assuming Irish falls somewhere before the competitive balance round, this feels like a good spot for Bodine to land. He's an extreme hit-over-power bat with a really good hit tool. The defense behind the plate is average, but he is expected to stick there due to a strong, accurate arm and improving receiving and blocking skills.

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