MLB Rumors: Winter Meeting buzz surrounding Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and more

The offseason is like a game of chess in baseball.

Teams want discounts on players and don't want other teams to know their intentions, so they create false narratives by leaking information that benefits their agendas. Players, meanwhile, want to maximize their contracts, so they leak information to get teams to bid more. The media wants to break the story, so they report on any morsel they believe to be accurate.

At first, it's almost impossible to sift through the rumors and find the truth. Then, the Winter Meetings begin, the big moves trickle out, and the picture takes shape.

Everyone in baseball goes to the Winter Meetings: scouts, executives, agents, etc. This year, they will start at night on Sunday, December 8th, in downtown Dallas. With everyone under one roof, the pace of dealmaking speeds up significantly. It's an excellent time of year for people who love baseball and elaborate business negotiations.

Last year, Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani changed teams within a week of the meetings. This year, all of the marquee players are still available except for Blake Snell. Here's what we know on the precipice of the offseason's most anticipated event.

Juan Soto

Juan Soto is the crown jewel of free agency. Outside of Ohtani's saga last year, there hasn't been a decision with this much gravitas since LeBron James took his talents to South Beach.

Everyone wants him, but only a few can afford him. Bidding for Soto has reportedly eclipsed $600M. Rumor has it that it's down to five teams: the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Dodgers. Soto is known to be entering the 'elimination' phase' of his journey.

In breaking news, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com believes the Dodgers are the first team Soto eliminated, while ESPN's Jeff Passan suggests they're still in the running. Signs point to a resolution before or during the meetings.

Corbin Burnes

Corbin Burnes has finished top-10 in the Cy Young voting for five straight years, including a victory in 2021, but with all the top teams honed in on Juan Soto, he'll have to wait a little before finding his next home.

A marquee pitcher with his track record has not hit the market since Gerrit Cole in 2019. When he signs, it will likely be for more money than Blake Snell got from the Dodgers. Burnes's suitors include the Giants, the Red Sox, the Blue Jays, the Yankees, the Orioles, the Padres, the Cubs, and the Dodgers.

Max Fried

Max Fried doesn't have Corbin Burnes's Cy Young pedigree, but the pair have had nearly identical ERAs since 2020. He's a hero in Atlanta, where he threw six scoreless innings in the Braves' series-clinching game in the 2021 World Series. However, like Burnes, Fried's market has yet to develop because many of his suitors are busy with Soto.

Teams may question Fried's durability because he missed half of 2023 with a forearm injury, and forearm injuries are sometimes a precursor to Tommy John surgery, which he's already had once in 2015.

Still, the AAV of his contract should be on par with Snell and Burnes. Michael Kay reported on December 4th that the Yankees have had contact with Fried's team. The Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Tigers, Braves, Giants, Mets, Dodgers, and Angels are also in the running.

Willy Adames

Willy Adames is a free agent after the best season of his career in 2024. The 29-year-old shortstop has many suitors because he's open to switching positions, but his market is still in its infancy.

The Mets, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, and incumbent Brewers are all possible fits.

In an emerging story, Mark Feinsand believes the Yankees will go hard after Adames if they fail to re-sign Soto. He appears headed for a contract well north of $100M, and if he re-signs in Milwaukee, it would be one of the largest contracts in Brewers franchise history.

Alex Bregman

Alex Bregman, one of the last remaining Astros from the infamous 2017-2019 teams, is a Scott Boras client. Like many other Boras clients, his free agency seems likely to drag on for a long time since rumor has it that his asking price is over $200M.

He's a fine player but not the MVP candidate he looked like early in his career when the Astros were banging on trash cans, which means teams might not be chomping at the bit to give him the kind of commitment he wants.

Still, any team with a hole at the hot corner is going to be in on the bidding, including the Blue Jays, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Mariners and Tigers. The Astros remain the heavy favorite, though, as they've made retaining Bregman their 'top priority' this winter.

Roki Sasaki

Roki Sasaki is this year's Yoshinobu Yamamoto with one crucial difference: Sasaki is too young to be eligible for the type of money Yamamoto got from the Dodgers. Instead, Sasaki is guaranteed to sign the cheapest deal out of any marquee player available.

Teams are limited to how much they can offer him by how much they have available in their International Free Agent Bonus Pool. As such, it's likely to come down to relationships.

The Dodgers are among the front runners with fellow Samurai Japan teammates Shohei Ohtani and Yamamoto already on the roster. The Padres are believed to be their top competitor because one of their aces, Yu Darvish, is Sasaki's mentor. Sasaki will sign after January 15th because that's when the bonus pool money resets.

If he doesn't end up in Los Angeles or Sand Diego, the best remaining fits are the Yankees, Rangers, Orioles, Giants, Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, Phillies, and Cubs. Still, every team in baseball will be interested in the young phenom's services.

Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso is a great fallback option for whichever team fails to attract Juan Soto. The Mets slugger has more home runs since 2021 than anyone not named Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, or Kyle Schwarber.

He's another guy with a frozen market that will likely persist until after the Soto signing, but all the big players like the Astros, Cardinals, Diamonbacks, Yankees, Mariners, and of course, the Mets, will be checking in. When he does sign, it's expected that it will be for a little less than the kind of money Alex Bregman is looking for.

Baseball's hot stove is heating up. The Juan Soto sweepstakes are entering their final stretch, and after that, expect a fury of rumors — some true, some not — culminating in more top free agents finding their new homes.

It's an exceptional free-agent class, and Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi have already signed contracts for more money than expected. The Winter Meetings are looking like the peak of a thrilling offseason.

If you want to keep chatting about offseason rumors, follow me @Lucastalksball (X or Bluesky). I'd love to hear your takes!

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