MLB's Top 5 starting pitching prospects on the cusp of breaking out

Major League Baseball has recently seen a lot of talented arms come through the prospect industry, and there's a whole lot more of them patiently waiting to make their long awaited debuts.

With how advanced the amateur and college level has become, prospects enter pro ball with some of the same skills as big league pitchers, making it nearly impossible to pick and choose five pitching prospects I believe to be the best.

Regardless, someone has to do it. The biggest factors that I took into account to rank these five pitchers is minor league track record, arsenal depth and effectiveness, and physical projection. With that being said, here are my top five pitching prospects in baseball right now.

1. Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers

Kicking off my top five pitching prospects is Jackson Jobe, the top prospect in the Tigers farm system, and the fifth ranked prospect in all of baseball by MLB Pipeline. Jobe was selected third overall by the Tigers in the 2021 MLB Draft out of Heritage Hall High School in Oklahoma. Since entering Detroit's farm system at the age of 19, Jobe has found nothing but success at each stop of his professional career thus far.

The tantalizing right handed pitcher stands in at 6'2" with a solid frame for a big league starter, and sports two different 70-grade pitches: his fastball and his slider.

His fastball has reached 101 mph, and during his quick cup of coffee in Detroit at the end of 2024, it averaged 97 mph. His slider, which is more so regarded as a sweeper because of the amount of horizontal break it generates, is lethal to right-handed hitters.

He also has a plus cutter and changeup in his arsenal as well, which each have received a 60 grade from scouts. No other pitching prospect has an arsenal as well-rounded as Jobe's.

In 91.2 innings at High-A West Michigan, Double-A Erie, and Triple-A Toledo in 2024, Jobe posted a 2.36 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, and a 25.6 K%. He spent most of his time at AA where he logged 73.2 innings with a 1.95 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, and a 27.2 K%. Among pitchers with at least 15 starts at Double-A, all of those marks ranked within the top 20.

Although his MLB debut was very brief (four innings in two relief appearances), Jobe made the Tigers postseason roster and actually had two appearances out of the bullpen as well in the playoffs. This speaks to how highly Detroit views the 22-year-old phenom moving forward.

At the moment, Jobe is projected to be the Tigers number five starter by Fangraph's Roster Resource. It's a possibility he starts the year at Triple-A so the Tigers can ramp him up into starting before joining the big league rotation, but this is an arm you will see a lot of on the mound in Detroit regardless.

2. Noah Schultz, Chicago White Sox

The top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball is Noah Schultz, the 26th overall pick in the first round of the 2022 MLB Draft by the White Sox.

Like Jobe, Schultz was drafted out of high school, which makes him a rawer pitcher than the college arms that parade through the minors. Regardless, Schultz has had no problem adjusting to professional baseball in his early twenties.

Due to injury, Schultz only threw 27.1 innings in 2023 at Low-A Kannapolis where he looked elite, posting a 1.33 ERA and a 30.8% strikeout-minus-walk rate.

He made the jump to High-A Winston Salem in 2024 following his recovery and was quickly promoted to Double-A Birmingham where he really made a name for himself. In 88.1 innings across High-A and Double-A, Schultz logged a 2.24 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, and a 25.4 K-BB%. Among pitchers across all levels with at least 20 starts, Schultz ranked within the top 10 in each category.

What makes Schultz stand out is his 6'9" frame and funky delivery — both of which have led to the lefty drawing Randy Johnson and Chris Sale comparisons. Schultz features a fastball that has touched 99 mph but normally sits anywhere in the mid-90s, as well as a wipeout slider, which is his premier pitch.

Left-handed hitters stand zero chance against both offerings. He has also developed a plus changeup as a secondary offering for right-handed hitters. His booming physical profile helps all three pitches play up from their normal metrics.

Given the White Sox's current situation, it's a possibility we could see Schultz debut during the second half of 2025.

I have always been in favor of getting top prospects to The Show as quickly as possible as longs as everything checks out for the player, especially for the teams that don't have a whole lot to play for. He was given an invite to big league spring training by the White Sox, so he should get some opportunities against some MLB talent, giving fans a better glimpse into what he projects to be moving forward.

3. Chase Dollander, Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have not had a whole lot to be excited about in the pitching department for a long time, but Chase Dollander is changing that. Dollander is Colorado's No. 1 prospect and the fifth-ranked pitching prospect in all of baseball by MLB Pipeline.

As one of the best strikeout pitchers in minor league baseball, he comes in as my third best pitching prospect. Among pitchers not named Paul Skenes, Dollander was arguably the best pitcher in the 2023 MLB Draft, when he was selected ninth overall out of the University of Tennessee.

While pitching in Coors Field will be quite the task for Dollander — as it is for any pitcher — I believe he has the stuff to be one of the better pitchers we've seen come through Colorado's farm system in a long time.

Dollander has some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in the game. Over his 118 innings across High-A Spokane and Double-A Hartford, Dollander had a 16.6 SwStr% (whiffs/pitches). That ranked fifth in all of minor league baseball among pitchers with at least 20 starts.

On top of the ability to miss bats, he has limited the long ball very well in his career, which can obviously be a concern pitching at Coors. Granted, the environment he's throwing in at Double-A is much different, but it's important to note he only gave up one home run in his 48 innings at the level in 2024.

He also had league-average ground-ball and fly-ball rates, but hitters have a really hard time hitting him with authority just because of how good his stuff is. If he can pair that with his ability to get swinging strikes, Dollander can certainly be a front-of-the-rotation arm for years to come.

Dollander has ran his fastball up to 99 mph (though it tends to sit closer to 96 mph), and it plays up because of the vertical break on the offering paired with his ability to locate it well. His slider has earned a 60 grade while his curveball and changeup both earned a 55 grade, so there isn't anything to worry about in regards to him having a starter's arsenal. He has a very easy, repeatable delivery that reminds me a lot of Gerrit Cole's.

Although he only has one pro season under his belt, Dollander's big league debut may be closer than it seems. On top of having already received an invite to big league spring training, Rockies GM Bill Schmidt has already been on the record saying that Dollander has a chance to make the team out of camp.

4. Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

Between Paul Skenes and Jared Jones, Pirates fans have a lot to be excited about when it comes to the future of their starting rotation, but they might have another frontline starter on the horizon. Bubba Chandler is currently the No. 1 prospect in Pittsburgh's system and comes in ranked as the 11th best prospect in all of baseball by MLB Pipeline.

Chandler was drafted in the third round of the 2021 draft out of North Oconee High School in Georgia as a two-way player and a two-sport athlete. He was dominating both on the mound and at the plate in high school and was also committed to Clemson to play quarterback for their football team.

If anything, that speaks to Chandler's athletic and physical ability. After continuing as a two-way player through his first full professional season, Chandler decided to focus on pitching, which has paid off.

Because it wasn't until 2023 that Chandler became a full-time pitcher, his game on the mound is still a little raw. His command and development of his secondary pitches needs some more time, but he still has a ton of upside.

2024 was his best year yet and was really first time he started to come into his own as a pitcher and not just an athlete that can throw. Over 119.2 innings at Double-A Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis, Chandler posted a 3.08 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, and a 22.3 K-BB%.

He's shown a ton of improvement year-to-year since becoming a full-time pitcher and will only get better with more experience.

Chandler's premier pitch is his 70-grade fastball which has ran up to 99 mph and sits anywhere from 95 to 97 mph on average. His main secondaries are a slider and changeup, but he has also flashed a curveball from time to time. The development of those pitches along with his control or command will really make or break whether he's a big league starter or a back-end reliever. He's currently projected to open the season in Triple-A, but I have no doubts we will see him debut sooner rather than later.

5. Hagen Smith, Chicago White Sox

Rounding out my top five pitching prospects is Hagen Smith, the lone pitcher from the 2024 draft class. Smith was my favorite pitcher in last year's draft, and I still believe he is the best pitcher from that group. He was selected fifth overall by the White Sox out of the University of Arkansas, where he put up an all-time performance in his junior year.

In 16 starts and 84 innings, Smith posted a 2.04 ERA and a ridiculous 49.2 K% en route to an SEC Pitcher of the Year award.

After getting drafted, Smith got a quick taste of pro ball where he threw just 7.2 innings over three starts at High-A Winston Salem. The lack of professional experience to this point makes Smith a bit of a riskier pick here, but there's a whole lot to like about him based on his performance at the college level.

Like his teammate and fellow top pitching prospect Noah Schultz, Smith is a funky lefty with a deceptive delivery. While he doesn't stand in at 6'9", Smith is still a big bodied pitcher at 6'3", and it's his lower arm slot that makes him such a difficult at-bat.

His fastball sits anywhere from 94 to 97 mph, but with the lower release point paired with the vertical break on the pitch, it might as well be a triple-digit fastball. While that offering is electric, it's his slider that is his best pitch. It yielded a whiff rate as high as 75% during his final college campaign and is a nightmare for left-handed hitters.

He's also working on developing a splitter as his offspeed offering to help supplement his fastball and slider.

Smith probably comes with the most "reliever risk" among these five pitchers because of his lack of a third plus pitch (for now) and because of his control that still has a lot of room for improvement. He has also already been through a Tommy John surgery, so it's still unknown how his arm will adjust to a big league workload. Even if he ends up in the bullpen, though, he has the stuff to be an elite back-end reliever.

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