With every new leaked picture from the backfields of spring training camps, we feel the relief that the long, unbearable absence of Major League Baseball is down to its last out. Now that players have reported, the names on our favorite teams’ rosters are no longer hypothetical. They are real and in the flesh, throwing long toss, taking grounders, and treating us to sweet cracks of the bat from the cage.
It is during this time that we start to envision the general outlook of the 2025 season. We remind ourselves of December mid-tier signings (“Oh yeah, Kyle Higashioka is a Ranger now!”) and pitchers returning from Flexor Tendon sabatticals (“Right, Shane McClanahan is healthy again!”). We set our sights on the sunny Florida and Arizona skies and see a healthy, flawless, peak season for all (except Anthony Rendon).
It is also during this reckoning with the crystal ball that we subconsciously let our personal, outdated player evaluations determine the confidence or anxiety we feel about our lineups and starting rotations.
2025’s underrated and overrated outfielders
We’re all prone to it. We may say, “This team has a stellar infield,” not realizing the third baseman is past his prime and the shortstop is never going to live up to that potential everyone thought he had a couple of years ago. Or we might say, “This pitching staff is garbage,” without realizing three nobody starters had quiet breakouts last year and the bullpen has been completely overhauled.
If we want to have accurate understandings of players heading into this season — for the sake of our analyses, online arguments, fantasy teams, and everything in between — we must make the necessary mental adjustments. It’s time to make those adjustments. It’s time to correct the perceptions of the industry. It’s time to see who is underrated and who is overrated.
Starting here with outfielders, this will be part one (of five) for a series in which I will examine three underrated and three overrated players. In my analyses, I will be using a project of mine called LASR (League-Adjusted Standardized Rating) which places all stats onto the same 20-80 scouting scale based on league qualifiers (all data is sourced from FanGraphs).
Underrated: Riley Greene
It’s hard to believe a former fifth overall pick and top prospect who put up 5.4 bWAR as a 23-year-old while leading an unlikely, inspiring Tigers playoff push could be considered underrated. But if you were asked which outfielder was more valuable (again, by bWAR) than all others except Aaron Judge, Jarren Duran, and Juan Soto in 2024, how many guesses would it take before you said Riley Greene?
Greene is an excellent defender, which partially masks his overall value since defensive stats are often neglected in favor of their more easily measured offensive counterparts. He also doesn’t have a standout offensive skill. He’s comfortably above average in taking walks and making solid contact — including home runs — but he isn’t blowing us away anywhere.
Another factor in his relative lack of league-wide acknowledgement is that he didn’t burst onto the scene as a rookie. His MLB career experienced a soft opening, with injury-shortened seasons in 2022 and 2023. Combined with Detroit’s overall unsatisfactory results, his development was likely grouped in many fans’ minds alongside the disappointing trio of Spencer Torkelson, Casey Mize, and Matt Manning.
He took a big step toward superstardom in 2024, but he still hasn’t protruded the casual fan barrier yet. He has improved steadily every year of his career so far, though, and with a taste of playoff experience tantalizing the young and hungry Tigers for more, we better get used to seeing Riley Greene’s name among the best MLB outfielders in 2025 and the years to come.
Underrated: Matt Wallner
Drafted as a first-round Competitive Balance pick in 2019, Matt Wallner was one of thousands of minor leaguers who missed a crucial year of development when the 2020 minor league season was canceled. He is now 27 and has yet to have a full-season opportunity in the bigs, spending 2024 bouncing between AAA and MLB. However, last season’s second half proved that he is far from a Quad-A player.
Wallner seemed to solidify a spot in the Twins’ corner outfield and DH mix in the second half of 2023, posting an .854 OPS driven by good patience and solid pop. The 2024 season started rough, though, as he slashed .080/.273/.240 in the first 13 games. Minnesota, desperate to pull themselves out of a team-wide poor start, demoted him and he lingered in AAA until early July.
When he returned, he made sure it was for good, slashing .282/.386/.559 for a .945 OPS the rest of the way. He still struck out plenty, but he hit the ball with authority and in the air. Though his walk rate was league-average, his on-base skills have been boosted the past two years by being a ball magnet. Through a combined 151 games, he was hit by a pitch 29 times in 2023 and 2024.
Once without a specific position, he now appears to be the Twins’ everyday right fielder, though he’ll likely sit against southpaws fairly often. His only productive MLB time so far has occurred from July onward, but there’s no reason to think the cold bothers him — he is a local Minnesotan after all. With more experience under his belt, don’t be surprised to see Matt Wallner extend his 2024 second half excellence over a full season.
Underrated: Pavin Smith
On September 8, 2024, Pavin Smith got the start in left field as the Diamondbacks faced off against Justin Verlander and the Astros. A former top prospect without much success in the majors, Smith had shuffled between the big leagues and minors throughout 2024. He was a decent but unremarkable bat off the bench, sporting a .767 OPS for the season. He had four home runs and 18 RBIs in 97 plate appearances.
By the end of the evening, he had added three more homers, eight more RBI, and the ire of all Astros fans.
Expectations were high a few years ago for Smith, who was drafted seventh overall in 2017 and impressed in his initial time in the minors. He was given the opportunity to be a regular in 2021, but turned in a disappointing, replacement-level season for a team that lost 110 games. As Arizona rose back to contention in the following seasons, he lagged behind and appeared to be a bust.
He continued to excel when in the minors, though, and stepped that up even more in 2024, when he slashed .318/.433/.564 with a .423 wOBA that led all AAA hitters (minimum 250 plate appearances). He bounced back and forth to the majors throughout the year and was called up for good in mid-August. In September he seemed to turn a corner, turning in excellent power-hitting stats for the month.
Obviously, that three-homer game had a significant impact on his September stats, but he performed well outside that too, getting barrelled contact and avoiding chases at superb rates. Perhaps the Verlander game will be a moment we look back on, when we first saw the new Pavin Smith. With some major league success under his belt, Smith may be a surprising element of a strong 2025 Diamondbacks offense.
Overrated: Luis Robert Jr.
Early into their disastrous 2024 season, it was clear the White Sox would be sellers in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline. As such, Luis Robert Jr. was assumed to be on the move. He was a rare White Sox player with positive value, a cost-controlled center fielder coming off a 12th-place MVP finish in 2023. However, the Sox were unable to find a match — and when looking at his stats, there’s no wonder why.
Robert was below average across the board, only contributing good baserunning and league-average defense. His OPS dropped a full 200 points from the previous year, and his strikeout rate — which had stood at 19.2% in 2022 — ballooned all the way to 33.2%. His horrid whiff rate implied that was no fluke, and with his xwOBA coming in lower than his wOBA, he didn’t even underperform his peripherals.
Obviously, his stock is down compared to where it was this time last year, but remarkably, there have still been rumors this offseason that teams are looking to trade for Robert as an upgrade. While he could prove that 2024 was a worst-case scenario that won’t be repeated, those most recent results should be heavily considered.
Of course, potential acquiring teams could be looking at Robert as a buy-low candidate, but Chicago did not initially put him on the trading block with those intentions. They likely still want to find a package close to what they could have gotten at Robert’s peak, but they’re unlikely to find it. And with how poorly run the team has been lately, it would be surprising to see Robert rediscover his previous form in 2025.
Overrated: Bryan Reynolds
Since 1993, the Pittsburgh Pirates have finished above .500 four times, and in their only string of success, 2013-2015, they made the playoffs each year but never got past the NLDS. As spending has increased exponentially throughout the sport, the Pirates have lagged behind: their largest free agent contract ever is still Francisco Liriano’s 3-year, $39 million deal back in 2014.
The Pirates deserve all the flack they get for their refusal to invest in a winning product. However, in April 2023, the team broke its frugality and allowed a slight crack in its piggy bank. After a disturbingly public negotiation process, they put an end to the drama and inked star outfielder Bryan Reynolds to an eight-year, $106.75 million extension, the largest contract in franchise history.
Now, they might wish they had let him walk.
Reynolds had a career year in 2021, putting up 5.9 bWAR (tied for fourth among all outfielders) and a .912 OPS. He took a step back in 2022 and while he was productive, the Pirates likely envisioned a return to his 2021 form when they put pen to paper in early 2023. On the day the extension was signed, the Pirates had enjoyed a 16-7 start to the season and Reynolds had contributed a strong .872 OPS.
Unfortunately, the Pirates scuffled to another losing season that year and in 2024, and Reynolds now appears to be established as an average hitter and poor defender. He is still a useful player, but the Pirates clearly believed he was worthy of being a franchise player, a rare exception to their penny-pinching tradition. Instead, he has slipped down to merely average, and Pittsburgh may want its checks back.
Overrated: Teoscar Hernandez
Last winter, a gloomy Seattle past hung over the market of Teoscar Hernandez, who initially sought a multi-year contract but settled on a prove-it deal with the Dodgers. That could not have gone much better, as he set a career high in home runs (33) and bWAR (4.3). He also won the Home Run Derby, was a key force in a World Series-winning lineup, and was rewarded with a three-year contract from those Dodgers.
However, several signs point to his 2024 success being heavily influenced by luck, and regression may be on the way.
In the era of chasing launch angles, Hernandez surprisingly does not lift the ball nearly as often as his fellow home run hitters. To hit all of those 33 homers in 2024, he required an extreme home run per fly ball rate. Granted, Dodger Stadium is a home run-friendly ballpark, so he may continue to benefit in Los Angeles, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see his HR/FB% regress a bit.
His xwOBA came in slightly under his wOBA, suggesting some luck there as well. His .344 BABIP was also noticeably high, but was actually exactly the same as his BABIP from 2020 to 2023. He is a right-handed groundball hitter with surprising speed, so it may be somewhat sustainable, but it was the highest in baseball during that stretch. At 32, he’s not likely to remain at the top of that leaderboard.
A regression to the mean in any of these areas would unfortunately put more pressure on his concerning strikeout totals, which are backed up by his whiff rate. He also cannot lean on his defense, where he has generally been below average by all metrics except UZR for most of his career.
The Dodgers, of all teams, could handle a disappointing contract or two. Time will tell if Hernandez’s second will live up to his first.