Day by day, the 2025 MLB season steadily creeps upon us, and our winter-long yearning for the pleasant pops of the mitts, the sweet smell of the grass, and the rich regressions of the spreadsheets draws closer to being fulfilled. It may still feel like the dead of winter, but hope is on the horizon.
One of the most enticing aspects of brand-new baseball coming soon is the sheer number of possibilities lying ahead. For the optimists such as myself, anything can happen. That means your favorite prospects will develop into spectacular big leaguers, your injury-prone pitchers will finally stay healthy all year, and those breakouts you’ve been waiting patiently for are here at last.
Position player breakout candidates in 2025
Previously, I conducted deep dives on three starting pitchers and three relief pitchers whose games could be taken to the next level in 2025. Now, I will conclude my breakout series by analyzing three hitters I’ve deemed capable of becoming elevated versions of themselves in the upcoming season.
In my analyses, I will be using a project of mine called LASR (League-Adjusted Standardized Rating) which places all stats onto the same 20-80 scouting scale based on league qualifiers. On the scale, 50 is average and 10 points in either direction is one standard deviation (all data is sourced from FanGraphs).
I am also introducing a new slice of LASR. Though this isn’t available yet in my Tableau dashboards, I can now break down LASR stats on a monthly basis. For example, instead of analyzing full-season 2024 data in this article, I will look at subsets of the season, such as only August and September data.
This sheds new light on players who made significant progress last year and ended the season at a different level of performance than they began it. So, let’s see which three hitters look to continue their development and become stars in the making.
Michael Toglia
Through his first 15 games in 2024, Michael Toglia’s slash line sat at a paltry .106/.143/.362. Though he had smacked four homers, he remarkably had only one other base hit in that span, leading to a laughable .044 BABIP. There was surely room for positive regression there, but he had only walked once and sported an atrocious 40.8% strikeout rate.
The Rockies weren’t going anywhere in another disappointing season, but Toglia’s performance was too poor even for them. He was demoted to AAA on April 24th and stayed there until June 6th, spending six weeks presumably learning how to hit a baseball again, or at least figuring out where the strike zone is.
Fortunately, it worked. Within a couple of weeks of his return to Colorado, he had cemented himself as their everyday first baseman and put together a solid second half.
Toglia slashed a respectable .233/.331/.469 after his nightmarish few weeks in April, grading out at approximately league average with a 50 wRC+ LASR. Though he continued striking out in bunches, he was a reliable slugger and, perhaps most importantly, posted an impressive BB% LASR of 65. His 13.0% walk rate from June forward was tied for sixth in MLB among qualified hitters.
Though his power numbers are already above average, his underlying metrics suggest there’s more boom in the Toglia tank. His Exit Velocity (EV), Barrel%, and HardHit% LASR grades were all 60 or above, and his bright-red profile on Baseball Savant confirms that Toglia knows how to pound the ball, with seven batted-ball metrics in the 90th percentile or higher.
His xwOBACON, which only considers balls put in play, was sixth in MLB among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances, behind only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Brent Rooker, and Marcell Ozuna. Obviously, his prevailing strikeout issues that aren’t reflected in xwOBACON detract from this point, but it’s clear that when he gets the bat on the ball, he can do as much damage as the best sluggers in the game.
Toglia is a clear positive regression candidate, as his expected stats were significantly higher than their result-based counterparts: .456 SLG/.503 xSLG and .329 wOBA/.358 xwOBA. Those differences ranked eighth and sixth, respectively, among hitters with 450 plate appearances. He also hit for less power than one would expect at Coors Field, which is probably an unlucky fluke that should be unexpected to continue.
Toglia was a first-round draft pick in 2019, so a breakout wouldn’t be unprecedented based on his pedigree. After bouncing between first base and the corner outfield for a while, from June 18th onward last year, he served only as the Rockies’ primary first baseman. With a solid hold on that position, Toglia may benefit in 2025 from having more stability and a longer leash than he’d get elsewhere.
His strikeouts are still concerning, but they come with the territory of being a "Three True Outcomes" hitter. By improving his walk rate, he has already shown an ability to develop a better understanding of the strike zone; if he can cut down on his whiffs even slightly, his value will soar.
With the potential to be a true middle-of-the-order bat, this could be the year Toglia establishes his spot in the next Rockies core.
Otto Lopez
One of my favorite parts about baseball is that player skillsets can vary so wildly while producing a similar amount of value. In 2024, Michael Toglia and Otto Lopez were both worth between two and three wins (by bWAR), but the shapes of their productions looked nothing alike. While Toglia relied on homers and free passes, Lopez helped the Marlins as a high-contact defensive whiz.
After getting small cups of coffee over three seasons with Toronto — including a one-plate appearance debut in 2021 and a call-up with no actual appearances in 2023 — Lopez was practically given away twice. The Marlins picked him up a week into the 2024 season off waivers from the Giants, who had purchased his rights from Toronto a couple of months earlier.
Initially getting spare playing time as a utility infielder and late-game replacement, he slipped his name into the lineup card more frequently after Luis Arraez was dealt to San Diego in early May. After the Marlins’ complete sell-off at the Trade Deadline, he used the opportunity given to him to become a clear piece of their future.
Lopez’s calling card is his defense, so I’ll start there. First, a note that I couldn’t break down fielding stats by month due to a faulty function in the baseballr package I use (a ticket has been submitted to get this fixed). Therefore the LASR fielding stats shown are full-season data. I’m reluctantly okay with that for now, since fielding stats don’t generally oscillate as much as batting stats.
Anyway, Otto Lopez is an excellent defender. He ranked above-average by all measures, with fantastic FRV and OAA LASR scores of 70. In the raw values, he ranked third among all second basemen in those stats. When considering he played about 500 less innings than the top two and wasn’t far behind either of them, it’s not that hot of a take to say Lopez is currently the best defensive second baseman in MLB, or at least belongs in the conversation.
That is incredibly valuable in itself and gives his future a high floor, but he’s also a capable offensive contributor. He doesn’t offer much power, but he put up a 65 AVG LASR over 2024’s last two months that will get old-school fans’ heads turning if he can sustain it. Part of that was an above-average ability to avoid strikeouts, while he also got a sizable boost from a high BABIP.
Of course, that could mean he’s due for regression, but being a speedy, right-handed groundball hitter gives him a good chance to maintain a relatively high BABIP. He showed this potential by beating out lots of infield hits, with an IFH% LASR of 65. That is a stat to be careful with, as it often requires a larger sample size than what we’re working with to judge, but his profile suggests that skill is legitimate.
After Miami’s disappointing showing last year, a significant coaching turnover was made and this new direction for the organization could lead to drastic changes in playing style. Whether this will impact Lopez is yet to be seen, but he is already on the right track to complete his transformation from a fringe utility player to the Marlins’ second baseman of the future.
Kyle Manzardo
While Michael Toglia and Otto Lopez had productive seasons last year by WAR, my third breakout pick was exactly replacement-level by bWAR and fWAR in the 156 plate appearances he picked up in his debut with the Guardians. For those who are sticklers on the definition of “breakout,” Kyle Manzardo is the most qualified candidate I’m presenting, since he has yet to provide positive value in the bigs.
A second-round draft pick by the Rays in 2021, Manzardo was traded to Cleveland in 2023 in a one-for-one swap for Aaron Civale. He continued performing well in the minors for the Guardians, but struggled in his first taste of big league action in May and June last year, slashing .207/.241/.329 with no home runs, three walks, and 23 strikeouts in 30 games before being sent back down.
When rosters expanded in September, Manzardo was promoted again and promptly hit his first two career home runs in his first game back. Throughout the month, he made a strong case to be a mainstay in Cleveland’s 2025 lineup.
It’s a small sample size compared to what I used for Toglia and Lopez, but in September, Manzardo was a comfortably above-average major league hitter, turning in a wRC+ LASR of 60. That production was fueled by power, with HR%, SLG, and ISO LASR grades all at 60 or above. He hit the ball hard and consistently put some air underneath it, with an excellent Launch Angle (LA) LASR of 65.
Like Toglia, his approach will come with strikeouts, but they appear to be far less of an issue with Manzardo. His walk rate came in around league average at a LASR of 50, but it was a significant improvement over his May and June showing. His 55 Avoid Chase% LASR also suggests potential for a higher volume of walks in the future.
All of these skills were far more apparent in Manzardo’s AAA numbers in 2024. Among hitters under 25 (to rule out non-prospects/veterans) with at least 250 plate appearances in AAA, Manzardo’s .387 xwOBA ranked second, and his results were an even better .401 (though he drops to fourth on that list). His walk rate was superb at 16.3% and was accompanied by a satisfactory 18.5% strikeout rate.
Defensively, Manzardo leaves a lot to be desired, as a first baseman who Cleveland will be limiting to designated hitter duties to start 2025. They signed Carlos Santana to a one-year deal earlier this offseason, so they may be allowing a transition year at first base as Manzardo works on his defense. If so, Santana could be a great mentor, as a veteran who just won his first Gold Glove at the age of 38.
For now, though, Manzardo should get a shot to be Cleveland’s everyday DH heading into 2025. The team will have a new hitting coach this year, having promoted Grant Fink from within the organization. Perhaps he can help facilitate Manzardo’s development, especially if they are already familiar with each other from their time together in the minors.
The Guardians clearly believe in Manzardo, having traded Civale when he had a 2.34 ERA in 13 starts in 2023. Manzardo has also already shown an ability to handle pressure, putting up an .842 OPS in the 2024 playoffs, including a home run in Game 3 of the ALCS against the Yankees. With a full season of promising opportunities ahead, Manzardo seems poised to be in the Guardians’ next postseason lineup as well.