3 dark horse candidates for 2025 National League Cy Young award

Continuing my mini-series on Cy Young dark horses (you can find the American League edition here) we are moving on to the National League where I am highlighting three different pitchers I believe are primed for big seasons. Each of these pitchers has had small track records of success, but they remain under the radar despite their impressive stuff.

1. Michael King, San Diego Padres

Michael King already had his breakout campaign in 2024, but he's looking to take that next step into the category of elite pitching talent. King got his "starter audition" during the second half of 2023 with the Yankees before being shipped off to San Diego in the Juan Soto trade. Since August of the 2023 season, King has established himself as one of the most consistent starters in baseball.

During his time as a starter, King has quietly put up some of the best numbers in the game. He has logged 210.2 innings while posting a 2.73 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 20.4 K-BB%, and 5.3 fWAR. Minimum 200 innings, his ERA ranks third in all of baseball — not just the National League — in that time frame.

Despite entering 2024 with concerns about how he would adjust to a full season starter's workload, King delivered 170.1 innings over 30 starts, solidifying himself as San Diego's true number two starter behind Dylan Cease. Among all qualified National League starters last year, King's 2.95 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 19.0 K-BB%, and 4.0 fWAR all ranked within the top ten.

While he has put up above-average strikeout numbers, King's success really comes from his ability to limit damage. He led all National League starters in both average exit velocity (85.6) and hard-hit% (29.6) allowed, while finishing fifth in barrel% (6.1).

King has a deep arsenal that features a fastball, sinker, changeup, and a sweeper — all of which he uses at least 15% of the time, and he also throws a cutter-like slider he flashes roughly 6% of the time.

Because of his wide repertoire of offerings paired with his ability to induce both whiffs and soft contact, King has what it takes to remain as a solid starter in today's game.

Now that he has a full season under his belt out of the rotation, the 29-year-old right hander can take another step forward. He received 14 points in last year's Cy Young vote (1 third place, 4 fourth place, 3 fifth place), and if his numbers continue to trend in their current direction, there's no reason why there shouldn't be some first place votes next to his name in 2025.

2. Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

While his rookie year numbers don't jump off the page by any means, Jared Jones burst on to the scene as one of the most electric young arms in baseball and gave us some glimpses of what he is capable of as a big league pitcher.

Unfortunately for Jones, if he's going to win a Cy Young in the near future, he's going to have to out-pitch his teammate Paul Skenes — a heavy favorite for this year's award.

While Skenes certainly overshadows Jones in Pittsburgh's rotation, Jones really isn't as far from Skenes as you would think. Jones posted a pedestrian 4.14 ERA and 4.00 FIP over 121.1 innings last year, but if you dive deeper into his profile, you'll see why he has the makings of an elite pitcher in today's game.

It all starts with the fastball for Jones. He averaged 97.3 mph on the offering in 2024, which ranked third among starting pitchers, only behind Skenes and Hunter Greene. He also produces a lot of extension with his delivery, which only makes the fastball better. While it was hit around a bit, the .438 xSLG and .338 xwOBA on the pitch were both actually league-average, and he produced a well above-average 25.8 whiff% on the offering. The fastball is his bread and butter, and will only get better with improved command.

Jones's slider is his go-to secondary, and is one of the better sliders in baseball. Just like his fastball, his slider is one of the hardest thrown sliders, coming in ranked fifth among starters at 88.8 mph. It's his most successful pitch as it had 7.4 runs above average in 2024, which ranked 12th among big league sliders.

It's another offering that returns a well above-average whiff% at 37.3 and also produces below-average batted ball metrics. He comfortably uses it against right-handed and left-handed hitters, both in and out of the strike zone.

An improved changeup would really complete his arsenal (and allow him to attack lefty hitters more aggressively), which I believe could turn him into one of the premier pitchers in baseball. Heading into his sophomore season in the big leagues, I expect Jones to make the necessary adjustments to take the next step forward, and if everything clicks, Jones certainly can surprise baseball fans in 2025.

3. DJ Herz, Washington Nationals

I couldn't wrap up this series without taking a real shot in the dark on a pick, so here it is. DJ Herz, who is currently battling for the final spot in the rotation for the lowly Nationals, is a dark horse Cy Young candidate. Despite the fact that Herz might not even open the season with the big league team, there's a lot to like about the 24-year-old lefty's upside, given he gets enough playing time.

Herz threw 88.2 innings over 19 starts for the Nats in 2024, and posted a 4.16 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, and an 18.3 K-BB%. Herz was fairly consistent throughout his rookie season which began on June 4, but also logged a few elite outings. In just his third start, Herz struck out 13 hitters with zero walks and one hit over six innings in a start against the Marlins. He posted another ten strikeout game three starts later against the Mets.

The real concern surrounding Herz upon his debut was his control and command. In his five minor league seasons since 2019, Herz did not have a season in which he walked less than 13.6% of the batters he faced. For reference, the Major League average for starters in 2024 was 7.6%.

On top of that, the walk rate for minor league pitchers tends to inflate when they reach the big leagues due to hitters being more disciplined. However, that was not the case for Herz. In fact, he managed to lower his BB% to 9.4 during his big league stint.

The key for Herz was trusting his fastball in the zone more. His fastball only averaged 93.5 mph, and yet it was one of the best in the game at producing whiffs. The offering had a 30.5 whiff% which ranked fifth among all big league fastballs, coming in ahead of plenty notable fastball specialists.

The reason he finds so much success with his fastball is because of his funky left handed delivery. There is no one more of a fan of low-release point, funky left handed pitchers than me, and Herz nearly fits the profile in a perfect manner.

As a matter of fact, Herz reminds me a lot of Shota Imanaga, who looked like a Cy Young finalist in the first half of 2024. If Herz can lean into his delivery and reliably repeat an elite fastball (while continuing to improve his command), he can certainly be one of the biggest breakout stories in 2025.

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