There is no position in baseball with such unique and precise tasks, demands, and expectations as the man behind the plate. Catchers spend most of their lives doing squats, enduring stinging foul balls from mere feet away. They are responsible for making consequential pitch decisions and performing subtle magic tricks to make those pitches look like strikes. There is absolutely no job description like a catcher’s.
When evaluating this strange breed of player, we must keep in mind the special world they exist in. Since catchers’ defensive duties are so essential to preventing runs, the bar for offensive production is lower than all other position players. Therefore, it’s important to remember that a determination of “Is this good?” requires an addendum: “for a catcher.”
With that in mind, let’s stack up all the battle-worn backstops to see whose excellence has been overlooked and whose stardom has benefited from deceitful framing.
2025’s underrated and overrated catchers
This is part three of my series on MLB players who are underrated or overrated heading into the regular season. I’ve broken down outfielders and infielders; now it’s time to get behind the dish. In my analyses, I will be using a project of mine called LASR (League-Adjusted Standardized Rating) which places all stats onto the same 20-80 scouting scale based on league qualifiers (all data is sourced from FanGraphs).
Overrated: Will Smith
As the Los Angeles Dodgers continue to build and sustain their dynasty by collecting superstars through trades and free agency signings, their blandly-named homegrown catcher is often an afterthought. He’s been an everyday player for over five years, is signed for another nine, and already has two World Series rings. If all goes according to plan, Will Smith will be a significant cornerstone of this Dodgers era.
Unfortunately, Smith’s production isn’t trending in the right direction, and the Dodgers may have to make a difficult decision a lot earlier into his 10-year, $140 million extension than they initially planned.
The former first-round pick had a hot start to his career, slashing .268/.363/.574 (batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage) in 91 games across 2019-2020, good for a 143 weighted runs created plus (wRC+). He never graded out as a superb defender, but with offensive contributions like that, he didn’t need to be. It looked like the Dodgers had another future Hall of Famer on their hands.
Smith has gradually declined every year since then, though, with a wRC+ that has steadily trickled down over the last four years: 130, 127, 118, and 111. Much of this dropoff can be attributed to a decrease in power, as his slugging percentage (SLG) has slid from .574 over his first two seasons to .456 over his last four. Meanwhile, his defense has sunk even further, having posted the second-poorest framing in MLB last year.
Don’t get me wrong. Will Smith is one of the top catchers of this era. However, he’ll be turning 30 later this month and is already on a downward trajectory. With top catching prospect Dalton Rushing knocking on the door, Smith may be forced into another position relatively soon. And if his offense keeps backsliding he may find himself a surprising odd man out, playing on a contract the Dodgers will eventually regret.
Underrated: Ivan Herrera
When St. Louis icon Yadier Molina retired following the 2022 season, the initial heir to the Cardinals’ catching throne appeared to be prospect Ivan Herrera. Though he hadn’t impressed in his small 22-plate appearance (PA) sample that year, his promising hit tool gave St. Louis fans a yearning for an offensive-oriented catcher following Molina’s defensive-minded reign.
So, they signed Willson Contreras, stashing Herrera in the minors for most of 2023. Though Contreras has been excellent, questions and drama surrounding his defense have resulted in a shift over to first base. With that move, it is finally Ivan Herrera’s time to shine.
After being used sparingly in the previous two seasons, Herrera got his first extended run of big league playing time in 2024. He missed two months in the middle of the season due to a lower back injury, but when he was healthy he showed why his contact ability has been so highly regarded. Among catchers with at least 250 PA, his batting average of .301 topped the list.
Cardinals fans should be warned that Herrera supplanting Contreras behind the plate will not be a major defensive upgrade. While Herrera is better than Contreras at framing and most other defensive metrics, he is only league-average at best in those departments, and is markedly worse at catching base stealers. He does have Molina and his legendary cannon as a mentor, though, so there’s hope for improvement.
The Cardinals are entering a rare rebuild, or at least a retool, so the 24-year old Herrera should be given a long leash in 2025 and beyond. With an impressive bat-to-ball ability and the potential to continue developing his defense with Molina’s mentorship, don’t be surprised to see Ivan Herrera reserve his spot on the next great St. Louis team, whenever that may arrive.
Overrated: Yainer Diaz
The Houston Astros were certainly justified in finally bidding adieu to veteran backstop Martin Maldonado in 2024, belatedly handing the reins over to impressive youngster Yainer Diaz. While Maldonado was considered the better defender — a questionable claim toward the end of his Astros tenure — it was impossible to dismiss the obvious offensive upgrade any longer.
The change was, as expected, a net positive for Houston. However, there are troubling warning signs that Diaz may not be the solution for long.
Diaz was never billed as a strong defensive catcher — and 2024’s poor showing proved why — so he will have to rely on his offensive production to carry his value. Thankfully, that has worked out well in his first two full seasons. He posted a .293/.318/.478 slash line over 2023-2024, good for a 121 wRC+ that put him behind only the Contreras brothers for third among MLB catchers.
That two-year production may not be sustainable, however, as it’s hoisted up by a .322 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), including a .338 BABIP in 2024. A regression to the mean would not be surprising, and with it would come a more critical look at his horrendous chase rate. Diaz is an aggressive hitter, with a 3.5% walk rate (BB%) over 2023-2024 that ranks last among catchers with at least 250 PA.
An extreme tendency to chase is good news to pitchers and bad news for Diaz. Making adjustments will be crucial, or else the league will exploit his weakness as much as possible. If that happens, not only will his walk rate continue sinking, his strikeout rate may climb as well. If those trends combine with more batted balls finding gloves than grass, the Astros may soon have another catcher dilemma on their hands.
Underrated: Jake Rogers
When the Detroit Tigers completed their shocking mad dash into the playoffs last year, a frantic baseball nation made an overdue check-in on Detroit’s roster and asked “Who are these people?”. The last time the Tigers saw the postseason had been 2014, back when recognizable players like Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Miguel Cabrera graced the front covers of the media guides.
While Scherzer left as a free agent and Cabrera stuck around until he couldn’t hack it anymore, the Tigers got something back when Verlander departed: their catcher of the future, Jake Rogers.
At the plate, Rogers had a rough year in 2024. He slashed .197/.255/.352, good for a 71 wRC+. The power potential he had shown in 2023, when he smacked 21 home runs with a .224 isolated slugging percentage (ISO), seemed to have dissipated. In roughly the same amount of playing time, he managed only 10 homers and a .155 ISO in 2024.
Though he’s unlikely to ever be a great hitter, he was the victim of notable bad luck last year. The negative gap in his weighted on-base average (wOBA) and expected wOBA (xwOBA) was eighth-largest in MLB (minimum 250 PA), while the corresponding gap in his SLG and expected SLG (xSLG) was fifth-largest. Don’t be surprised to see some positive regression in his favor this season.
The biggest reason Rogers is underrated, though, is his superb defense. He was second in framing last year, only trailing framing mastermind Patrick Bailey, and graded above average in most other catching metrics as well. With better luck to come and the chance to guide a young, relatively anonymous core back to the playoffs, Jake Rogers may be a more important catcher this year than most fans realize.
Overrated: Connor Wong
Even though many of the players involved are still young, it was clear that the Boston Red Sox lost the Mookie Betts trade years ago. While Betts has continued being a top-10 player, Boston’s return has been lackluster. Jeter Downs was a huge disappointment, while Alex Verdugo’s roller coaster career led to a lack of major league offers for him in free agency before signing with the Braves.
As consolation, Connor Wong seems to have become a serviceable primary catcher for the Red Sox. However, his unsustainable good fortunes and poor defense could lead to a complete set of unsatisfactory pieces obtained in the Betts blockbuster.
Wong seemed to take a step up offensively last year, improving from a .235/.288/.385 slash line in 2023 to .280/.333/.425 in 2024 and enjoying a wRC+ leap from 78 to 110. Unfortunately, the success sat on the shoulders of an unsustainable .348 BABIP and a wOBA-xwOBA gap of .042, which was second-largest among players with at least 450 PA. This sort of luck will not be easy to replicate.
Aside from his elevated BABIP, there are no strengths in Wong’s offensive profile. His home run, walk, and strikeout rates are all on the wrong side of league average, with chase, whiff, and hard-hit rates to back them up. The sheer bleakness of his contact quality data is illustrated best by the gloomy run of blues on his Baseball Savant profile.
Then, there’s the defense. Wong was generally middle-of-the-pack in his first full season in 2023, but took a severe step back and was arguably the worst defensive catcher in MLB last season. Most of the negative value comes from framing, so he may be hoping the ABS system is on its way to regular-season games soon. If not, Connor Wong’s future as a big league quality catcher may be in jeopardy.
Underrated: Yasmani Grandal
I know what you’re thinking: wait, Yasmani Grandal is still active? While Grandal is 36 years old and declined past replacement-level status a few years ago, he quietly enjoyed a resurgence in 2024 on a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Now you’re probably thinking: okay, good for him — but wait, who’s he playing with now?
That’s the thing: despite many teams having at least one question mark at catcher, and despite Grandal’s relatively strong season last year, he remains an untethered object in the vast universe of free agency.
At his peak, Grandal was one of the best catchers in baseball. Over a seven-year period from 2015-2021, Grandal accrued 31.6 FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), more than any other catcher during that stretch. Much of that value came from his patience at the plate, a considerable amount of power, and extraordinary defensive contributions.
While those skills have unquestionably deteriorated, last year he showed there’s still some gas left in the tank. His once sky-high walk rate has decreased over the years, but was still above league average in 2024 at 9.9%. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate dipped below 20% for the first time since 2013. His ISO also rebounded, coming in at .172 after sporting a substandard .087 mark over 2022-2023.
Most importantly he can still catch, and his framing is still superb. While there’s no reason to expect him to play like he’s 27 again, last year’s production should warrant a roster spot somewhere. Among current free agents, he sits at the top of the 2024 fWAR leaderboard. With the stateside regular season approaching, Yasmani Grandal should snag another MLB gig soon — or else many teams are missing out.