What’s Next: Roy Oswalt Edition

Last week, perennial Cy Young candidate, Roy Oswalt formally requested a trade. Since then, a fair number of teams have made calls on the Astros ace. Let’s take a look at the possible suitors. Bear in mind that Oswalt is still owed the remaining balance of $15MM this season, plus $16MM in 2011 and a club option for 2012 that would pay him $16MM or a $2MM buyout. He also has full non-trade rights, so Oswalt will have the final say in where he ends up.

To be frank, the Astros aren’t in a great spot as they try to accommodate their star pitcher. There are few clubs that can add payroll at this point, and the Astros aren’t going to want to contribute much money to sweeten the deal. They will be looking for top-level talent in return for their ace, and rightfully so at this point. There are still two months before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, so the Astros can afford to take a firm stance on any prospective deals. As the deadline grows closer, the deals may dry up a bit as more teams fall out of contention however, so acting early might be the wiser move.

We’ll get into it after the jump.

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Oswalt is just 2-6 this season, but that’s not all his fault. His Astros team is among the worst in baseball and Oswalt has gotten little support. This season his ERA, WHIP, H/9, and K/9 rates are all better from a year ago, and in many cases ahead of his career line. That’s really saying something when you consider this is a pitcher that has twice won 20 games, has a career record of 139-76 and has been one of the best right handers in the game since his debut in 2001.

So it’s safe to say that there are plenty of teams that could use him. But how many can afford not only the salary he is owed, but also can afford to give back the prospect package it would take to land him?

The thought is that Oswalt would prefer to stay in the National League, at least according to his former manager, Phil Garner. He would also like to play nearer his home in Mississippi. If those two things are deal breakers, expect to see Oswalt playing for the Cardinals or Braves soon. More likely, Oswalt will accept a trade to a team he thinks will best help him reach another World Series, no matter the league or location.

The (possible) Suitors

The Cincinnati Reds are an intriguing team with a bright future, but they likely don’t have the financial flexibility to land Oswalt. Cincinnati has a pair of well-paid veteran starters in Bronson Arroyo, who’s pitched well, and Aaron Harang, who has not. Both right handers are in the final year of their deals, so there is some room on next season’s payroll, however. I could envision a scenario where the Reds added Oswalt (with the Astros picking up a good part of his 2010 salary).

Cincinnati has a stud first base prospect in Yonder Alonso who would have to be the centerpiece of a trade. Houston’s Lance Berkman is in the final year of his deal, as the club holds a 2011 option on the star first baseman. If they would acquire a guy like Alonso, they could more easily justify not declining that option, which would make dealing Oswalt, and even tossing in some cash, a bit easier to swallow for Drayton McLane. If Alonso were packaged along with left handed prospect Travis Wood, the Reds might have the ability to pull this off.

With the announcement yesterday that the Texas Rangers will file bankruptcy in order to complete the sale of the team by mid-summer, there is a thought that this is done with an eye on landing Oswalt. The new ownership group is getting a good ballclub (currently leading the AL West) that has been thin on starting pitching but long on offense. Even with the new owners in place, the Rangers would likely need McLane to throw in a good chunk of cash to make a deal possible.

Suitor number two (who prefers to be called the second suitor) could offer 1B Chris Davis, who has been passed by Justin Smoak on the depth chart, as well as one of a host of good young arms in Derek Holland, Dustin Nippert, Tommy Hunter, and Guillermo Moscoso. If Texas is willing to part with some pitching, they may get McLane to sign off on paying a good part of Oswalt’s paychecks.

It’s a long-shot to me at best, as the Rangers aren’t going to like having to give up the young pitching they’ve worked so hard to develop, and the Astros aren’t going to like having to kick in so much cash.

The Detroit Tigers are known to be another of the teams that have called on Oswalt, and they are said to be ready to deal. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has the young arms to pull off a trade for the Astros ace, and has an owner willing to spend extra to win. The Tigers being an American League club might have some convincing to do with Oswalt to get him to accept the trade.

Detroit could part ways with LHP Casey Crosby along with any number of hitting prospects. 1B/OF Ryan Strieby would be a nice fit to replace Berkman at first, or the Astros might want a more athletic player like OFs Casper Wells or Wilkin Ramirez, both of whom have good speed and very good power. SS Cale Iorg also has loads of talent but seems to have fallen out of favor with the Tigers, so he could be moved as well.

If the Astros were to look to trade with Detroit, I think they find the best possible deal, at least in terms of a team willing to take on salary, plus giving back at least one top-tier prospect.

Less likely

• The Los Angeles Dodgers– Joe Torre has made no secret he wants a true ace, which he doesn’t have yet in LA. Oswalt likes the NL, the Dodgers play in the NL, so that works. What doesn’t work is that the Dodgers have had a virtual freeze on payroll since the McCourts filed for divorce. No chance that gets cleared up by the trade deadline, but GM Ned Coletti says he thinks they may be looking for pitching after the break. Like with the Rangers, Houston would have to throw in too much money for this to happen.
• The Minnesota Twins– ESPN’s Jayson Stark thinks they could get involved, but I wonder if they would be willing to part with the prospects needed to get McLane to pay a lot of salary. The Twins opened their new ballpark with a payroll near $100MM, their highest ever, so you have to wonder how much cash is left in the bank. They have the talent to give back, staring with catcher Wilson Ramos, but would they be willing to mortgage the future for Oswalt? Seems very un-Twins-like to me.
• The New York Mets– GM Omar Minaya loves him some superstars, but the Wilpons mandated a limit on payroll this winter. Of course not allowing room in the budget for a LOOGy like Joe Beimel and not adding room for a Cy Young-caliber hurler are two different cases. But even if the Wilpons could be convinced to dig deep for Oswalt, there’s a good chance the Mets fall out of contention well before any deal with Houston could be made.
• The Atlanta Braves are in a similar situation to the Mets as far as being a true contender is concerned. Adding Oswalt would certainly help, but the Braves haven’t had a history of adding big-time salaries in the past. I could see them wanting to make a run at it one last time for Bobby Cox, and I do think Oswalt would like to pitch in Atlanta, but I don’t think it happens. Remember, Atlanta traded Javier Vazquez last winter in an attempt to cut payroll.

For more on the ongoing Oswalt saga, check out fellow BBA member Astros County, where the Constable is keeping tabs on all the Oswalt-related rumors.