Arizona OF Conor Jackson Traded to Oakland for RHP Sam Demel

Well, this is quite the deal.

The A’s sent minor league relief pitcher Sam Demel to Arizona for major league outfielder Conor Jackson on Tuesday.

To the uninformed observer, this deal might look like a contender (Oakland) swapping out a minor league arm to a rebuilding team (Arizona) in exchange for an established major leaguer.

In a sense, yes, that is what’s going on. Jackson is only under contract through 2011, and Demel, having never pitched in the majors, has six years of team control left, so the A’s are certainly taking a more short-term view here than Arizona (and rightfully so).

Another obvious conclusion to draw from this trade is that the A’s are dealing from strength (young pitching) to fill a weakness (hitting). With Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill, Vince Mazzaro, and Gio Gonzalez in the rotation, Andrew Bailey, Brad Ziegler, Tyson Ross, and Jerry Blevins in the bullpen, Brett Anderson, Josh Outman, and Joey Devine on the DL, and plenty of minor league depth, the A’s should have solid pitching staffs for years to come, Sam Demel or no Sam Demel.

(More analysis after the jump).

At the same time, of course, Oakland’s outfield situation has fallen apart. Ryan Sweeney has continued to be Ryan Sweeney–a good defender who hits a bunch of singles, and that’s it.  Coco Crisp has played two games all year. Rajai Davis has shown 2009 to be a fluke. Gabe Gross and Eric Patterson have been used in a bizarre arrangement where Patterson, a left-handed hitter, has been playing against lefty pitching almost exclusively, and Gross hasn’t carried his weight against righties while Patterson’s predictably struggled against lefties. You don’t want Jack Cust playing defense, and Jake Fox was so bad on both sides of the ball that he got DFA’d.

Enter Jackson, who theoretically wipes away the Gross/Patterson problem. The A’s can now have Jackson in left, Sweeney in right, and a Davis/Gross or Davis/Patterson platoon can hold down center until Crisp returns (which should be soon).

On Arizona’s side, there was little chance of the team competing this year or next, at which point Jackson’s contract expires. Plus, Jackson was never a premier hitter or defender, and a 2009 bout with valley fever has put his future production in question. The guy had a .653 OPS this year, for crying out loud. Arizona wants to play Gerardo Parra in left, and trying to resuscitate Jackson’s career was a nuisance on their roster.

Arizona’s big need is relief pitching, where the entire unit has been one of the most spectacular failures as a unit that I can remember. Aaron Heilman’s been good, and I like Esmerling Vasquez, but those are the only two relievers with ERAs below 6.00.

Enter Demel and his 1.26 ERA at Triple-A Sacramento to rectify the issue.

So, in the end, there’s rationale for this deal on both sides.

But that’s just the conventional wisdom take on it, and there’s more intrigue to this deal than just what the conventional wisdom says.

First off, it’s not often that a major leaguer is traded from a last-place team to a contender for a minor leaguer…and is the less certain commodity in the trade.

We know who Sam Demel is. We’ve all seen him before. Sure, maybe not Demel himself, but a pitcher like him. He’s a fastball/slider righty reliever who gets a good amount of grounders and strikeouts, but whose only average command and overall lack of flash make him just a nice seventh-inning guy.

Will Demel’s stuff work in the majors? Almost certainly, or at least, as close to certain as we can be about anyone in Triple-A. Will it dominate to a “relief ace” level, though? It’s hard to see that happening.

Demel is just another Todd Coffey/Jesse Crain/Rafael Betancourt type. Sure, maybe he winds up being a mediocre closer for a few years, but he’s not going to dominate.

Given Demel’s effective but somewhat limited skills, he’s pretty easy to pin down. Jackson, not so much.

Since Demel is very likely to be a solid but unspectacular pitcher for the six years he’s Arizona property, the deal is only “worth it” for Oakland if Jackson morphs back into the .300/.376/.446 hitter he was in 2008. As many others have mentioned in analyzing the deal, the switch to the AL and to a more pitcher-friendly park won’t help him, although at least he gets out of the tough NL West (opposing pitching-wise) into an easier AL West. Jackson’s doubles-power approach might also help mitigate the park effects.

The A’s are taking a risk here. If Jackson keeps hitting .237/.324/.329, they might as well just keep running Patterson and Gross out there, along with Matt Carson, Jack Cust, Jake Fox, and whoever else they can find in Triple-A or the waiver wire (Jay Gibbons, maybe?). If he rounds into his pre-valley fever form, they’ve acquired a solid hitter for a decent young reliever they didn’t really need.

So, it’s actually the six-year vet, not the minor leaguer, who’s really tough to project here. Jackson, not Demel, is the wild card. Demel will likely go to Arizona and post a 3.50 ERA or so the rest of the way. Jackson’s got to be at least an average hitter and defender, this year and next, to make this deal worth it for the A’s. If his poor 2010 stats reflect where he actually is, the A’s made a terrible move.