Indians/Mariners Trade Analysis: Russell Branyan for Two Prospects

Hey, there was finally a trade involving a major league player and not involving the A’s!

This one was a bit bigger than the one-for-one deals the A’s keep doing, as the Seattle Mariners acquired first baseman Russell Branyan from the Cleveland Indians for minor league center fielder Ezequiel Carrera and minor league shortstop Juan Diaz.

Branyan, 34, returns to the team that saw him bash 31 homers a year ago, while the Indians move further into rebuilding mode.

(more after the jump)

Let’s start with the obvious: Russell Branyan is an upgrade for the Seattle Mariners. He’s got a .355 wOBA, which is almost 100 points higher than the .260 from current Mariners 1Bs. So, they got a clear upgrade at a position of need for their 15th-ranked prospect coming into the year and another prospect who didn’t even rank in the top 30. Win, right?

Not so fast.

There are a few problems with this move from the Mariners’ perspective. First, and most obviously, is that we’re nearly in July and the team is 14 games out of the AL West lead. I know it’s a weak division, but if the Mariners think Russell Branyan is going to make up 14 games in the standings in three months…well, that’s quite erroneous.

Which would all be fine if Branyan were a) signed past this year or b) in his prime, but he’s a 34-year-old defensive liability who’s barely hitting enough to carry the weight at his position right now as it is. We all know that Three True Outcomes players don’t tend to age well. Branyan now walks about half as often as he did in 2005, a huge problem in his game.

Branyan’s still good enough right now that he makes sense for this year, and this year only for a team that’s contending now. That’s not to say he’ll be completely useless afterward (although I wouldn’t rule it out, a la Pat Burrell with the Rays), but merely to say that he’s not worth the in-season price of two legitimate prospects to add one or two extra wins to a team that’s likely to finish double-digit games back.

If the Mariners had wanted Branyan in the first place, they really should have re-signed him in the offseason. As it was, there wasn’t much demand for him, so the price of the one-year contract would have been much lower than the price of half of his one-year contract with Cleveland (for half the performance) and two prospects.

The only hope here is that Seattle uses Branyan as a trade chip themselves to a contending team looking for offense. Maybe they could get two decent prospects back in return. Still, I don’t think that’s the motivation, judging by Jack Zduriencik’s quotes about the trade, where he referenced Branyan bettering the team “now.”

But enough about that. Who are Carrera and Diaz, you ask?

Well, they both are underrated prospects who excel defensively and have hit above expectations.

Carrera, 23, is a Triple-A center fielder who was hitting .268/.339/.315. He doesn’t have much power, but he has four 20-steal seasons in the minors, works the count well, and hit .337 with a .441 OBP in Double-A last year. He’s got very good range in center field as well. Carrera projects as a Michael Bourn type with fewer steals. I suppose Seattle doesn’t feel it needs him with Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro around, but as the Indians know, nobody is a sure thing to stay on the field and stay productive (see Sizemore, Grady).

Diaz, 21, is a defensive whiz at shortstop who hit .311/.356/.446 at High-A last year and was hitting .295/.345/.433 there this year. Those numbers came at High Desert, an infamous hitters’ park, and Diaz had just a .712 OPS on the road this year, but he’s still young for High-A, which offsets the favorable environment somewhat. It’s unclear how much of the hitting is for real, but his defense could get him to the majors as a utility player, and if he hits, he could be a valuable starting shortstop.

Neither Carrera nor Diaz are just throw-ins–they’re the sort of solid prospects you’d expect a contending team to trade for a solid bat like Branyan as they prepare for the stretch run. Problem is, the Mariners aren’t a contending team.

I love that Cleveland’s going all-in on rebuilding and trying to acquire as many solid young players as they can. Rebuilding isn’t something to half-ass, and any veterans with little long-term value should be traded. I feel like this is just a weak PR-oriented move by Seattle, to bring in a familiar face to assure fans the season hasn’t gone to hell. Even if it somehow succeeds in placating the fan base right now, it won’t work long-term unless the Mariners win more games, and there’s very little indication that Branyan’s addition will make much of a difference in the standings. Any Mariners fans really care if the team wins 74 games instead of 70 or 71? Yeah, they might…because it gives them a worse draft spot next season.

Rarely has upgrading a team made less sense. The Indians understand that. Seattle apparently doesn’t.