Roster Moves (7/20): Chris Tillman Optioned to Norfolk

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Welcome to the July 20th edition of Roster Moves.  It was a day that saw 15 teams make moves involving 29 players, but one stood out to me.  That was the one involving the Orioles and Chris Tillman.

The Baltimore Orioles optioned RHP Chris Tillman (22) back to Norfolk limiting his latest run in the major leagues to just two starts and 10 days.  You may recall he was a part of the five player bounty the O’s received when Erik Bedard was shipped to Seattle.  By the way Mariners, how is that working out for you?

Tillman entered the 2009 season ranked as the Orioles number two prospect (just behind stud catching prospect Matt Wieters) and the 22nd best prospect in the minors according to Baseball America.  He made his major league debut July 29th, 2009 and finished the year with 12 major league starts to his credit.  The final line last season included a 5.40 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 1.63 SO/BB.  On the surface the numbers weren’t bad for a young guy cutting his teeth, but the 15 HR allowed in 65 innings and the low strikeout rate certainly raised some red flags.

Now we jump forward to 2010.  All told he’s started 6 games for Baltimore this season and has a less than stellar 7.92 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and 0.92 SO/BB.  Relative to last season, the walks are up and the strikeouts are down.  Once again more red flags.  He made two starts during his most recent call up and accumulated 10 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 5 BB and 5 SO.

There is clearly a disconnect between his minor and major league numbers.  This is certainly not uncommon as a drop in the SO rate of most pitchers is to be expected and they face better competition, but there are a number of factors in play that cause me to question his future as a viable major league starter.

The first is SO/9

481.2 minor league IP, 9.3 SO/9
90.0 major league IP, 5.1 SO/9

The second factor rests with his inability to throw 1st pitch strikes (only 46.2% of the time).  Finally, his fastball, which he has thrown 62.3% of the time this year, has been -2.60 runs below average per 100 pitches.  On the bright side his changeup (+1.01) and curveball (+0.52) have been above average.

He’s still just 22 years and he has the tools to succeed, but the shine is starting to wear off his prospect status.

The “Other” Moves:

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