Astros/Yankees Trade Analysis: Lance Berkman for Two Prospects

Yet another big name was on the move late Friday, as Houston first baseman Lance Berkman was shipped to the Yankees for pitcher Mark Melancon and infielder Jimmy Paredes.

The Astros will pick up slightly over half of the salary remaining on Berkman’s deal, which expires after the season. He has an option for next year, but required that it be declined in order for him to waive his no-trade rights.

So, it’s two months of Berkman for two rather obscure prospects. How does it all work out? Find out after the jump.

The Obvious

Beyond sentimentality, Lance Berkman offered nothing to the struggling Astros for the rest of 2010. A team going nowhere doesn’t need a 34-year-old first baseman.

I suppose the sentimentality could sell a few extra tickets, but many Astros fans are likely more excited to see Brett Wallace, the team’s future first baseman, play out the string the rest of this year. I doubt it’s much of an issue.

It’s been a down year for Berkman, as he’s struggled with injuries and has hit a somewhat pedestrian .245/.372/.436. He hasn’t hit 30 homers since 2007, and his strikeout rate (23.5%) is a career high. He’s an average first baseman at this point in his career–his 1.9 WAR thus far in 2010 translates to about three wins (an average starter) over the course of a season.

Part of Berkman’s value comes from his above-average defense, which has been worth 0.5 of Berkman’s 1.9 WAR this year. He’ll be DHing for the Yankees, so that aspect of his game likely won’t contribute.

It’s worth noting that Berkman has been much better from the left side of the plate this year. That’ll be good in Yankee Stadium against righties, but good lefties like David Price and Cliff Lee could render Berkman very ineffective in the playoffs.

With Berkman only likely to generate about a win or so the rest of the way, if the Astros could find a way to get a couple of wins from the package they receive, it wouldn’t be a bad deal, especially when coupled with the fact that the Yankees are taking $3 million off the Astros’ books–$3 million that could be spent to make up that win with a free agent signing or, better yet, signing extra draft picks or international players.

The more well-known of the two prospects coming to Houston is Melancon, who is a 25-year-old reliever who’s spent parts of 2009 and 2010 in the majors. He has a 4.87 ERA in 20 1/3 career innings, keeping the ball on the ground (57.6%), but showing poor command (13/10 K/BB).

Melancon’s best pitch is a hard curveball that comes in at 82-84 mph. His fastball is 92-94, and he also chucks an occasional changeup.

The Not-So-Obvious

Melancon has seen his K/BB in Triple-A slip from 54/11 last year to 58/31 this year. Walks hadn’t been a problem for him in the past, so that’s something of a red flag. In April, he only walked five batters in 15 1/3 innings. It’s been downhill from there.

Melancon may become a nice eighth-inning guy at best if he recovers his control, but if he keeps walking five batters per nine, he’s more of a replacement-level arm who can post a generic 4.00 ERA pitching lots of sixth innings. His upside is okay, and he should be able to stick in the majors, but he’s not tremendously interesting unless he cuts the walks down.

Jimmy Paredes has more upside, but he’s a Low-A infielder, so the 21-year-old is way less of a sure thing. The Dominican switch-hitter is hitting .282/.312/.408 in Low-A. He makes better contact and stands in better against lefties, but actually has more pop against righthanders. He can fly (36-for-46 in steals), but has an erratic approach at the plate (82/18 K/BB) that prevents him from posting high on-base percentages.

Paredes has 36 errors this year, which isn’t good, but isn’t surprising for an infielder in the South Atlantic League, particularly one spending time at multiple positions. He should be able to handle utility work fine in the majors.

Utility work is likely his ceiling unless he suddenly develops some more plate discipline or power. He could turn into another Erick Aybar if he cuts his strikeouts down, but that’s the absolute best Astros fans can hope for. 2009 season aside, Aybar’s a two-win-per-year player, which is sub-optimal for a starter…so Paredes is, like I said, best suited for utility work. He does have the potential to be worth more than two months of Berkman, particularly for the Astros, but he’s nowhere near the majors and will have to refine his plate approach and defensive work to get there.

Conclusions

The Yankees get a solid hitter in Berkman, and he could really help them out down the stretch, particularly against RHPs in Yankee Stadium. However, he’s no savior, especially against lefties. The Yankees should be happy to get a player of Berkman’s caliber without giving up much of significance in return.

As for the Astros, this is…fair. Not a huge win of any sort, but they open up playing time for Wallace immediately, get $3 million off the books, and get two players who could conceivably offer something in the majors, one of which could contribute immediately if asked. If this was really the best offer for Berkman out there, I don’t blame Ed Wade, Drayton McLane, and the Astros for taking it.