Rangers/Nationals Trade Analysis: Cristian Guzman for Two Prospects

The Rangers continue to stock up for what they hope is a playoff run, as they’ve now acquired infielder Cristian Guzman from the Nationals for prospects.

After getting Cliff Lee earlier this month, and Jorge Cantu yesterday, the Rangers have certainly boosted their chances of going deep into the playoffs this year, but as I pointed out with the Cantu deal analysis, they are severely weakening a farm system that entered 2010 as one of the top collections of young talent in baseball.

Was their price for Guzman too high? Find out after the jump.

The Obvious

Guzman, like Cantu, is no star–he’s hitting .287/.327/.361 and is a tick below average defensively at either middle infield spot.

The Rangers think he can be an adequate replacement at second for Ian Kinsler, who’s currently on the DL with a left groin strain.

They clearly don’t trust Joaquin Arias, who is hitting .276/.292/.322, to fill in adequately. Guzman is an upgrade on the mediocre hitting and fielding of Arias, but he’s closer to Arias’ performance level than Kinsler’s (.298/.387/.418 with plus defense). It’s still going to be a dropoff, and with Kinsler possibly coming back in a few weeks, any sort of high prospect cost would seem pretty steep to upgrade from Arias to Guzman for less than a month.

The Rangers are going to win their division; at this point, it’s all about going deep into the playoffs. The team will have Kinsler and Elvis Andrus manning the up-the-middle spots in the playoff games anyway, so why worry about who starts at second for 20 games in August? It’s maybe a 0.2-0.4 win difference anyway.

The Not-So-Obvious

The two players the Nationals receive from Texas are Double-A righthanders Ryan Tatusko and Tanner Roark. If you’re keeping track, that’s now six Double-A pitchers the Rangers have traded this season, plus a seventh (Michael Main) who was immediately promoted to Double-A after being traded.

So, if you’re a pitcher on High-A Bakersfield, promotions are easy to come by.

Anyway, Tatusko, 25, is a big 6’5″ sinkerballer who’s been a swingman throughout his pro career. Tatusko’s allowed just two homers in 100 innings, but has a weak 58/40 K/BB. Given his age, he’s nowhere near a premium prospect, and he’s likely to be a fifth starter or groundballing middle reliever at best.

Tatusko can hit 95 with his sinking fastball, but his other three pitches–a high-70’s curve, low-80’s slider, and a changeup–aren’t even average pitches right now. Without a swing-and-miss offering, getting ground balls is pretty much the sum of his skills, and Tatusko lacks premium command.

Roark, 23, has more upside than Tatusko. He’s also a swingman, but his 75/33 K/BB in 105 innings is much better than Tatusko’s mark.

Roark lacks Tatusko’s groundball ability, and he’s allowed eight homers this season. He doesn’t quite have Tatusko’s velocity, but throws 90-93 mph consistently. His two breaking pitches–a high-70’s slider and big, slow curve–are average pitches, and he also throws a playable changeup. He looks like he could settle in as a solid back-of-the-rotation starter, and is a better bet than Tatusko.

Both pitchers could get looks at Triple-A in August and serve some sort of role on the Nationals in a year. Neither is likely to become tremendous–Roark could be a Kevin Correia type, while Tatusko could be similar to the Phillies’ David Herndon–but both rank above yesterday’s throw-in from the Twins, Joe Testa, and could become decent spare-part pitchers. It’s more than nothing for two months of Guzman.

Conclusions

The Nationals made a solid trade here. The Rangers…it makes more sense than Cantu’s acquisition, at least. The fact that Guzman isn’t going to play much of an October role means that targeting him doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, but it’s not like Roark or Tatusko were going to make a huge difference for Texas in future years. The Nationals also send the bankrupt Rangers $2 million, for what it’s worth. I find Texas’ side of this unnecessary but harmless.