Twins/Nationals Trade Analysis: Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa

The final trade of a busy July 29 was between the Minnesota Twins and Washington Nationals. The Nats sent veteran closer Matt Capps to Minnesota, where he’ll bolster the Twins’ bullpen. In exchange, they receive catching prospect Wilson Ramos and lefty reliever Joe Testa.

More analysis on the dynamics of this deal after the jump.

The Obvious

Matt Capps throws strikes. Lots of them. He walked 2.82 per nine last year, which was easily the most he ever issued free passes to. This season, his walk rate is back to 1.80 per nine. Capps has whiffed 7.4 batters per nine, which isn’t incredible for a reliever, but works well given his pristine control.

Capps brings the heat, throwing a 92-96 mph fastball with good movement. It’s his only good pitch, and he throws it upwards of 3/4 of the time.

He’s never pitched in the AL before, and he’s also never pitched for a contender before, so it’s possible Capps could struggle to adjust, which is a problem, considering he’s only signed for this year. He’s been worth 0.6 WAR thus far, so he’s likely to be worth half a win at most from here on out. The Twins are 1 1/2 out of first place in the AL Central, though, so if any team should be worried about small fractions of a win, Minnesota’s the team.

The Twins have one of the better bullpens in baseball, with a 3.82 FIP that ranks eighth in the majors and second in the AL behind their competitors in Chicago. An upgrade wasn’t a necessity, and nobody in the bullpen really stood out as someone who needed to be upgraded on. Closer Jon Rauch is about as good as Capps, as are Jesse Crain and sidearming Pat Neshek (although you don’t want Neshek facing lefties). If the Twins needed a bullpen upgrade at all, replacing lefties Ron Mahay or Jose Mijares would seem more urgent. Capps obviously doesn’t do that.

Capps knocks everyone in the ‘pen down a notch, role-wise, which probably makes recently recalled and untested rookie Anthony Slama, who put up some sick numbers in the minors, the odd man out. Oh well; guess Slama has to wait until rosters expand to finally stick.

Ramos has been highly coveted by many teams leading up to the deadline. Everyone knew the top catching prospect was on the block; the Twins don’t need Ramos while Joe Mauer‘s behind the plate, which should be a long time. Ramos was considered a top prospect entering the year, and he made a big splash with a few huge games upon being called up earlier this season when Mauer briefly was out of the lineup. Ramos wound up hitting .296/.321/.407 in seven games at age 22–his only big league experience to date.

The Not-So-Obvious

For all the mainstream carping about Ramos as the next big thing, the guy didn’t do much in the minors this year. In fact, he was downright awful, hitting .241/.280/.345, and he turns 23 in a couple of weeks, so he’s not that young for the level.

He’s never put up a .350 on-base percentage and has only hit .300 or slugged .440 once (Double-A New Britain last season). He did play well defensively, throwing out 19 of 38 attempted base thieves and showing off good blocking/receiving skills–but he offered no power or plate discipline on top of his measly average.

He is hitting an empty .306 in July, for what it’s worth–that that brings his average to only .241 speaks to his tremendous struggles earlier in the year, like a horrific .170/.200/.264 May.

Right now, Ramos doesn’t look like a star to me. He looks more like a Miguel Olivo type who plays strong defense and has some hitting ability, but whose game is marred by an utterly hacktastic approach at the plate. He chased 40% of pitches outside the zone in his brief callup, which doesn’t work for many hitters. Even Vladimir Guerrero has just a 39.1% chase rate in his career, and Ramos is no Guerrero.

The Nationals have an exceptional young catching prospect in Derek Norris, who currently has a .408 on-base percentage in High-A. Catcher wasn’t exactly their biggest need in the minors, but it certainly doesn’t hurt to get multiple good prospects at a tough position like that.

The other player in the deal is lefty Joe Testa, a little reliever without much in the way of stuff who put up some sick numbers in the low minors. However, he crashed and burned in his first look at Double-A this year, and given that he’s already 24, he’ll be lucky to have any sort of significant career in the majors. He’s strictly a throw-in.

Conclusions

What you think of this trade depends on what you think of Ramos. If he’s the star the scouting reports make him out to be, then throwing that trade chip away for a good-not-great reliever they don’t really need is a huge mistake for Minnesota. On the other hand, if Ramos really is the guy with the .625 OPS, he’s more of a Henry Blanco type, which, given that Minnesota doesn’t need him or Testa, makes the acquisition of Capps perfectly sensible.

Split the difference and call Ramos the second coming of Olivo, and it still looks like an awful lot to give up for Minnesota. You have to wonder if they called teams looking to give Ramos away for a good veteran, and were always met with the “What’s with the .625 OPS?” question, a question they couldn’t answer to the satisfaction of the other teams. They lost out on Cliff Lee and others, and then finally, the Nationals and Capps were the only option they had left. If I’m the Twins, I just hold on to Ramos another year and wait for him to do something in Triple-A before I trade him; Capps isn’t much better than any of the righty relievers the Twins already have, so while he may he a 0.4 WAR pitcher the rest of the way, he’s likely replacing a 0.3 WAR pitcher or so.

As much as I find Ramos overrated (due to his poor production), I feel like Capps is a very modest return for what looked to be a hot trade chip. Washington should be pleased that they got such a good young talent for two months of a somewhat fungible reliever. The Twins should have known better.