Dodgers/Cubs Trade: Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot/Blake DeWitt, Two Prospects

In the third large deal of July 31, the Los Angeles Dodgers acquired lefthanded starter Ted Lilly and infielder Ryan Theriot from the Chicago Cubs for infielder Blake DeWitt and pitching prospects Brett Wallach and Kyle Smit.

The Dodgers also receive $2.55 million in cash to help cover the contracts of Lilly and Theriot, which combine to have over $5 million remaining. Theriot also has two years of arbitration remaining beyond that.

Who won this deal? Let’s get in depth after the jump.

The Obvious

Lilly’s the big headliner in this trade, and I’ll get to him in a bit. But first, let’s do a quick comparison of the two MLB infielders traded, Theriot and DeWitt.

With very little power, Theriot has hit .284/.320/.327 this year. He’s not a premium defender at either second or shortstop, and if 2010’s UZR is to be believed, he’s experienced a big downturn in range this season. UZR is prone to season-to-season fluctuation, though, and Theriot rated okay before this year.

With his punchless bat and iffy defense, though, Theriot’s been essentially right at replacement level this year, and at 30, he isn’t going to get any better. After walking 11 percent of the time in 2008, he’s seen that slip to 4.6 percent this year, which essentially makes his sole offensive skill hitting a few singles. I guess he can swipe a few bags as well, but that certainly isn’t a starter’s skillset unless that player plays Ozzie Smith-esque defense, which Theriot does not.

DeWitt is hitting .270/.352/.371 this season. Like Theriot, he’s not a power bat, and he only has one homer in 82 games, but DeWitt does have the ability to hit the ball into the gaps. That keeps pitchers somewhat honest to him, so he walks over ten percent of the time.

DeWitt, unlike Theriot, can’t play shortstop much at all, so he’s pretty much limited to playing an okay second (if UZR is to be believed, he’s improved from terrible to okay this year; if the truth lies somewhere in the middle, he’s below-average but playable) and an above-average third. If that sounds somewhat redundant with Mike Fontenot (.281/.328/.394), that’s because it is, although DeWitt is five years younger; he will turn 25 August 20.

So, DeWitt is a better hitter than Theriot, he’s younger by five years, he’s under team control for an extra year (next year is his first arbitration season), and he plays a better third (although a worse short) and possibly even a better second if 2010 UZR indeed indicates their true abilities.

Going from DeWitt (1.0 WAR) to Theriot (-0.1 WAR) with all of those additional concerns is not exactly an upgrade for the Dodgers.

As for Lilly, he certainly is an upgrade, although he’s strictly a two-month rental; his contract expires after the season, and he does not have an option for 2011.

He’s strictly a deceptive, crafty lefthander at this point: Lilly’s fastball averages 86.1 mph this year, and other than his huge, slow curve, which he rarely throws, he lacks a true plus offspeed pitch.

He goes with the Cliff Lee approach to pitching: pound the strike zone, don’t walk anyone, and make the hitters beat you. Lilly’s walked just 2.23 batters per nine, which is actually up from 1.83 last year. Like Lee, that means that the big-breaking curve, though it’s his best pitch, is rarely used, because it’s so tough to command. Lilly only breaks it out on 0-2 or 1-2 counts, for the most part, preferring instead to use a low-80’s cutter-esque slider and a straight changeup as his offspeed pitches. Neither is particularly effective, partially because he leans on them heavily–he only throws his heater about half the time. That does make the fastball play up despite its poor velocity, and the pitch has actually been 14.9 runs above average this year (1.59 per 100 pitches).

An extreme flyball pitcher (29.7% groundball rate), Lilly is very homer-prone (1.46 HR/9). He’s lucky to have just a 3.69 ERA; his FIP is 4.50. However, at least he doesn’t get himself in trouble with walks, which means there are fewer baserunners on when he gives up the long ball.

Lilly is somewhere between a third and fourth starter on a contending team, which the Dodgers seem to think they are.

The Not-So-Obvious

Brett Wallach, 21, is a righthanded pitcher in Low-A, and he is the second player whose names starts with “Brett Wallac” to be dealt in the last three days. The righthander was 6-0 with a 3.72 ERA in Low-A, punching out 92 and walking 43 in 84 2/3 innings. He becomes the second member of the Great Lakes rotation to be traded away this week, with the first being Elisaul Pimentel, sent to the Royals in the Scott Podsednik deal.

Relatively new to pitching after he was a two-way player in college and a shortstop in high school, the 2009 third-rounder already has two good pitches in a 90-94 mph fastball and a changeup. He needs to work on his command and keeping the ball down, but that’s to be expected from someone who’s only pitched for three years. His walk rate is below-average but not terrible.

In order to project as a solid starter, he’ll need to improve his slider, cut down the walks, and keep the ball down. Lucky for him, he won’t have to deal with the Cal League now that he’s going to the Cubs organization. Wallach may ultimately fit best as a power reliever, but he has a chance to be a solid starter as well. In any case, if all goes well, he should be a major league contributor, although he’ll need to move at a decent pace, as he turns 22 in the offseason.

Kyle Smit, 22, is a righthanded reliever who was recently promoted to Double-A. A strike-thrower, he was able to succeed in the Cal League thanks to a 46/10 K/BB in 50 1/3 innings. He’s thrown three scoreless Double-A frame since being promoted.

A groundball pitcher, Smit was able to survive the Cal League thanks to a 55.3% groundball rate.

It’s worth noting that he had ERAs over 6 in 2008-09 and that 2010 is the first season in his five-year pro career that Smit has posted an ERA below 4. He was a fifth-round pick out of high school in 2006.

After having command trouble early in his career, he’s started pounding the zone with a low-90’s sinker. He also throws a curveball and a changeup, and keeps all his pitches down in the zone.

He’s not a glamorous pitcher, but Smit is fairly young and could add a bit more velocity as he fills out. He won’t be a closer, but he could be a very solid middle reliever, throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the park.

Conclusions

I like the Cubs’ side of this deal more than LA’s. The Cubs get the better of the two infielders in DeWitt, and they also get two guys who project as solid bullpen arms, all in exchange for two months of Ted Lilly and an expensive 30-year-old who hasn’t been above replacement level this year in Theriot.

As for the Dodgers…I get the idea behind getting Lilly, but at most, he’s worth one win the rest of the way. The Dodgers are seven back of the Padres and 4 1/2 back of the Giants, and both teams have recently won series against Joe Torre’s club. If they were closer in the standings, fine, two future relievers and a slight infield downgrade for a good starter is a fair, if steep, price. But if the Dodgers are going to win this thing, even with Lilly, they’ll need a lot of luck, and if they don’t get it, that’s now five young players (DeWitt, Wallach, Smit, Lucas May, and Elisaul Pimentel) they’ve given up, and all five look like possible decent if unspectacular major league contributors. In return, they get 2 1/2 years of Theriot and two month of Lilly and Scott Podsednik. What’s that going to do? Push them to eight games back at season’s end instead of ten?

You have to wonder if Frank McCourt realizes he’s going to have to sell, and is just doing whatever he can to get one last playoff team together before he does. The Dodgers are sacrificing quite a bit of future depth just to improve their shot at the division from maybe 10% to 15%. I doubt that this will work, and even if the Dodgers veer back into the thick of the race, I don’t think getting Podsednik earlier and Lilly and Theriot now will be what does it.