Dodgers/Pirates Trade: Octavio Dotel for James McDonald, Andrew Lambo

The Dodgers made yet another 2010-oriented move right before the deadline, acquiring Pirates reliever Octavio Dotel and cash for reliever James McDonald and Double-A outfielder Andrew Lambo, who was the Dodgers’ #1-rated prospect not too long ago.

Do I find this move any more sensible than the other two go-for-broke trades the Dodgers have made? Find out after the jump.

The Obvious

Well, one thing is clear: The Dodgers aren’t going to miss the playoffs without a fight.

Scott Podsednik‘s acquisition isn’t going to push them into the playoffs. Neither is getting Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot, or Dotel.

But, combined, these guys are worth a couple of wins in the standings, particularly with Podsednik replacing the totally ineffective Garret Anderson, Lilly replacing the nebulous mess LA’s fifth-starter job has been, and Dotel replacing McDonald and his 8.22 ERA.

So, if LA is going to make the playoffs without acquiring a premier guy like Adam Dunn, I guess this is a decent way to go about it. That doesn’t make it likely that it’ll work, or make going for broke in 2010 the right decision, but at this point, it looks like Ned Colletti is operating under two guidelines:

1.) Make this team win in 2010.
2.) Don’t take on too much salary.

If that’s what he’s been asked to do by Frank McCourt, you can’t really blame Colletti for this.

Anyway, let’s start this off by comparing Dotel to the player he’s replacing on the Dodgers: McDonald.

Dotel strikes out a ton of guys: 10.80 per nine innings this year. He’s an extreme flyballer who will allow some homers (1.13 per nine this year; 1.16 career). He’s not a flamethrower anymore, throwing just 90-94, down from the 93-98 he used to fire. He throws his fastball 80% of the time, and often leaves it up, so dead-red hitters can hit him. He underuses his good slider and inexplicably toys with a high-70’s curveball that has been crushed for years, because a) it’s not a good pitch, b) he doesn’t stay on top of it from his low three-quarters arm angle, and c) he thus raises his arm a bit in order to be able to throw it at all, tipping the pitch. The fact that he uses it nearly as much as the good slider really hurts him.

Since he throws from such a low arm slot, Dotel’s tough on righties but gets killed by lefties. His xFIP split this year (2.64 vs. RHB; 6.34 vs. LHB) is therefore quite drastic.

Now, in LA, Dotel won’t be closing, so he won’t have to face that many lefties if used carefully, but Joe Torre’s never been known as a “creative” manager with respect to bullpens. It’s worth noting that the Giants and Padres have lots of left-handed hitters that could do damage to Dotel in the key matchups the rest of the way.

As for McDonald, he’s a 25-year-old who’s essentially been replacement level for 76 2/3 MLB innings over his career. He’s also a flyball pitcher, with a career 39.7% groundball rate, but he hasn’t had homer trouble.

McDonald has trouble throwing strikes, though, as he’s only thrown first-pitch strikes 55% of the time in his big-league career, and has walked 4.70 per nine. He’s got a 90-94 mph fastball, and his big high-70’s curve is his money pitch. He throws it a lot. McDonald also has a playable changeup, so he can start if need be, and given the Pirates desperate rotation situation, they might want to give McDonald ten starts, leave him alone the rest of the way, and see what happens. He has five career starts and 48 career relief appearances.

If we assume that Dotel will face fewer lefties in his new role, then he perhaps could double his 0.3 WAR, making him 0.3 WAR better than McDonald the rest of the way. Dotel has a $4.5 million club option for next year that he likely won’t be worth, and that the Dodgers likely won’t want to afford anyway.

If I’m Neal Huntington, and McDonald’s the best offer I get for Dotel, I’d do that straight-up. A 25-year-old live arm who already can at least tread water in the bigs for two months of a reliever with a 4.28 ERA? Sure thing.

As for the Dodgers, I can see why it could work. McDonald’s had parts of three years to distinguish himself, and he really hasn’t, so they’re essentially betting that he doesn’t dramatically improve his command. It could backfire, but it’s not unreasonable.

The Not-So-Obvious

Where it does get unreasonable is the inclusion of Lambo in the deal. I’m not a fan of him, but the guy rated as the team’s #1 prospect after 2008, and he was seventh entering this year, so a lot of people see something in him. He’s 21 and hitting .271/.325/.420. A suspension for a “drug of abuse” in May certainly knocked his stock down, and he’s been terrible since returning, but he’s young for the level. Scouts like his swing and think he’ll have 20-homer power.

Point is, this guy isn’t just a throw-in–in fact, he might be the more valuable commodity in the deal. Heck, Brennan Boesch essentially has the same skillset, and he was flailing in A-ball at age 23; struggling at Double-A at 21 is hardly the end (Just ask Greg Halman).

The Pirates have had a tremendous day. They’ve gotten rid of some roster dead weight in D.J. Carrasco, Bobby Crosby, and Ryan Church, and sent away a player they didn’t need in Dotel. In return, they’ve gotten a nice catcher, a potential utility player, a live arm, and a potential starting outfielder, as well as the roster space to look at some younger players.

And the Dodgers? This clearly is an all-in season for them, which really leads me to think Frank McCourt‘s ownership is going to be short-lived. If you’re in that front office, your job is to work for the owner, so if the owner says “Win in 2010 at all non-financial costs!” then you’re pretty much obliged to try to…well…oblige.

If Ned Colletti then ran to the Pirates and demanded Dotel, you have to credit Pittsburgh’s great job sensing and taking advantage of that desperation and prying away not just McDonald, but Lambo. The Pirates need all the young talent they can get, and they just got some. The whole point of having a guy like Dotel on a team like the Pirates is to get prospects for him, and you can’t ask for much more than what the Pirates just got.

Conclusions

Pittsburgh clearly gets what they wanted in this deal–two players who each could easily be worth more to them than the one they gave up.

The Dodgers? Well, credit them for not half-assing this whole “make the playoffs” thing. They’re certainly adding pieces; you have to give them that. And, given their ownership situation, the normal “save prospects for the future” thing goes out the window a bit; there may not be a future for the men in charge of the Dodgers. The odds are still against LA making it to the postseason, but all these moves together do tangibly increase their chances. The future, however, is bleak for Dodgers fans, particularly if McCourt doesn’t sell.