Royals/Braves Trade: Ankiel, Farnsworth for Chavez, Collins, Blanco

In the last non-waiver deal of 2010 that involved multiple players on both sides changing hands, the Kansas City Royals sent veteran outfielder Rick Ankiel and reliever Kyle Farnsworth to the Atlanta Braves for reliever Jesse Chavez, outfielder Gregor Blanco, and minor leaguer Tim Collins.

So, Atlanta stocked up for a late-2010 run while Kansas City sensibly continues to build for the future. Insert jokes about Dayton Moore trading with the Braves here.

All kidding aside, let’s see how this thing works out…after the jump.

The Obvious

Of the many moves Royals GM Dayton Moore has made in his tenure, most have been criticized, including the signing of Ankiel to a 1-year contract prior to this season. I found it to be a sensible risk, but it didn’t work out too well, as he hit just .261/.317/.467 and was often hurt.

Ankiel also struggled in center field, as he doesn’t have the raw speed to be effective out there, and his routes aren’t great. His famous arm is a plus, but he’s much better suited for right field. The defensive struggles meant he was worth just 0.3 WAR in 27 games. He could be worth 0.6-0.8 WAR the rest of the way if he stays healthy, keeps slugging over .450, and plays right field.

Farnsworth has had an honest-to-God good year, with a 2.46 ERA and even a 3.16 FIP. Part of it is HR/FB luck–just a 4.5% rate there–but a good part is Farnsworth finally throwing strikes, as he’s walked just 2.42 per nine, a career low.

The big righty still throws 93-97 with his fastball, and he’s developed a vicious cutter around 90 as his second pitch. He’s no longer a dominating strikeout pitcher, since he challenges hitters in the zone more, but he’s better off this way. He and Ankiel should combine to give the Braves a full extra win the rest of the way, which helps offset the Phillies’ move to get Roy Oswalt.

The Not-So-Obvious

The Royals get some immediate help to their bullpen by adding Chavez, a 26-year-old righty who throws almost as hard as Farnsworth, and has a 29/12 K/BB to Farnworth’s 36/12.

Chavez has two usable offspeed pitches in an upper-80’s slider that touches 91 (!) and a changeup. He doesn’t have tremendous pitch-patterning skills yet, but he has the raw tools to be a shutdown reliever.

His biggest problem in the majors has been homers–19 allowed in 119 innings. Moving to the AL won’t help that, so he will need to learn how to pitch down in the zone more. His groundball rate has worsened each year, which isn’t a good sign.

At worst, though, he’s a useful extra arm with plus stuff. At best, he grows into a closer.

I have a soft spot for Gregor Blanco, because I love leadoff types who work the count and get on base. Despite having no power to speak of, Blanco has walked an incredible 13.6% of his major league plate appearances, posting a .361 OBP in spite of his .252 average and .056 Isolated Power. A team could do worse than Blanco starting in center, as he’s a plus defender as well. He fits best as a great fourth outfielder, and he’s just 26 years old. I’d take Blanco over Ankiel any day if I’m Dayton Moore.

Finally, there’s Tim Collins. I’ve been writing trade stuff all day, so I’m going to be lazy and just quote myself here–this is from my recap of the Yunel Escobar/Alex Gonzalez trade which sent Collins to Atlanta from the Blue Jays:

"“Collins is already a reliever, but he has both incredible numbers and a fascinating backstory. He was undrafted out of high school despite fantastic numbers, mainly because he’s generously listed at 5′7″.  However, he went to high school in J.P. Ricciardi’s hometown, and word got around to the former Blue Jays GM that Collins was worth looking at. After a tryout with the team, Collins was signed, and he’s dominated ever since.Collins, just 20 years of age, has struck out a whopping 294 batters in just 194 2/3 innings, including 73 in 43 Double-A frames this year. He’s allowed just ten homers in his career and sports a 2.40 career ERA. He’s working on a 17-inning shutout streak in Double-A right now, and has nothing to prove there despite his age.Collins operates with an 88-92 mph fastball and a big curveball. Hitters get a sort of cognitive dissonance effect facing him, shocked at the good quality of the pitches coming from such a small pitcher. Collins also gets great extension on his delivery, sort of like Tim Lincecum, that allows him better leverage than his height suggests.Collins could help the Braves’ bullpen as soon as, well, now, but he’s more likely to see the majors in 2011. He could get a taste of Triple-A down the stretch and could become one of baseball’s best lefty relievers.”"

So yeah, that’s Tim Collins. I’ll add that he was predictably dominant with the Braves’ AA team, with 14 strikeouts and just one run in eight innings. He’ll finally be promoted to Triple-A with the Royals now, sources say.

Conclusions

The Braves weren’t using Blanco or Chavez much, and at 26, both players are likely mostly done improving, so they were expendable to the Braves, who are trying to get Bobby Cox one last championship before he retires. Ankiel and Farnsworth have more value than you’d think, and the Braves also get cash to help cover their contracts. Collins is tough for the Braves to say goodbye too, but as great as he is, his ceiling is likely as a Mike Stanton (the former Yankee setup man, not the Marlins outfielder) sort. Relievers are fungible.

The Royals had zero need for Ankiel, who was blocking Mitch Maier‘s playing time, or Farnsworth, and they get three players who are all interesting. Blanco is nice insurance in case Maier doesn’t cut it as a starter, and is a great backup outfielder anyway. Chavez is a live arm who will fit somewhere in the bullpen, and could really turn into something. Collins is a really interesting prospect as well, and he could become Joakim Soria‘s setup man in short order.

I have to give Dayton Moore credit for turning Scott Podsednik, Ankiel, and Farnsworth into such an impressive crop of young talent at the deadline. Maybe he’s learning.

At the same time, the Braves made a solid, calculated move that will help them. It’s a win-win trade, with the edge going to the Royals because their benefits are likely more lasting.