Notable Numerals: Joey Votto, Prince Fielder and More

This week’s edition of Notable Numerals is geared towards the NL Central. The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals are locked in a heated battled for the division crown with just 1 game separating the 2 teams. The 3rd place Milwaukee Brewers have had a disappointing 2010 campaign, sitting 9 games below .500 and 12.5 games back in the division, virtually eliminated. The bottom 3 teams in the division, the Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates are all out of contention and in their own right, have had long and arduous seasons to this point. Let’s take a deeper look at the 2010 version of the NL Central.

RBI for Joey Votto to lead the Cincinnati Reds. The 2010 season has been a nice surprise for the Cincinnati Reds, who have thus far emerged from underneath the St. Louis Cardinals/Chicago Cubs blanket of the last decade to find themselves the front-runners instead of followers. The Reds have had a solid offense all season, sitting in the top 10 in baseball in most offensive categories, including 1st in the NL with a .271 team average. They have been led offensively by their 1st baseman Joey Votto, who has been tearing the cover off the ball.

In 110 games this season, Votto has compiled an impressive .322 average with 28 long balls and 79 rbis. Throughout his short 3+ year career, Votto has been a pillar of consistency, hitting .313 with 24+ homeruns in each full season with and slugging percentage in the mid .500’s. This year however, Votto has already set a career high in home runs and is just 5 rbis away from a career high in that category as well. After dealing with some depression issues during his career, it appears Votto is as strong and confident as ever and is emerging as an underappreciated superstar in the major leagues.

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ERA for the top 3 guys in the St. Louis Cardinals starting rotation. While the Cincinnati Reds are winning games with their bats, the St. Louis Cardinals are getting the job done with the top pitchers in their starting rotation. So far in 2010, the combination of Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia is 40-15 with a 2.54 era including 5 complete games and 2 shutouts (all by Wainwright). The 3-headed monster has struck out 396 batters in 479.2 innings and is led by their ace, Wainwright, who currently has the only era under 2 in baseball (1.99).

The rest of the Cardinals’ starting rotation leaves much to be desired with a combined 11-19 record with a 5.43 era for the combination of 7 guys who have started at least 2 games. If the Cardinals can find a way to make the playoffs, whether it be the NL Wild Card (which they are 0.5 games behind) or the division crown, they only need 3 top pitchers to win a series or 2 and make their presence felt. If you were an opposing team, would you want to face off against 3 of the league’s best pitchers in a 5 or 7 game series? I certainly wouldn’t.

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K’s and BB’s for Prince Fielder in 429 at-bats. If the Cincinnati Reds have a solid offense and the St. Louis Cardinals have a strong pitching staff, then it makes perfect sense why the Milwaukee Brewers are virtually out of contention in 3rd place in the division.  They have a poor pitching staff that can’t even be outweighed by their decent power offense. The Brewers marquee player for the past few seasons has been the pudgy power of Prince Fielder and although I think he is a big powerful guy, his .268 average combined with 100+ strikeouts isn’t good enough to carry a team on his shoulders.

The bright spot of the year for the Brewers is Rickie Weeks’ career year, but it has been overshadowed by their poor pitching staff that has just 1 starter with 10+ wins (Yovani Gallardo, 11-5) and only 1 other pitcher with a winning record on the year (Chris Narveson, 9-7). The team era of 4.94 is 3rd worst in the NL and their 580 runs allowed is 2nd worst in the league. Regardless of how hot and powerful your offense can be, if your pitching is poor, you aren’t going to win a lot of ball games regardless of the league or division. The Brewers are looking towards 2011 with optimistic eyes, hoping they can add a few pitching pieces this off-season.

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Consecutive home wins for the Houston Astros. After beginning the 2010 season on an 8-game skid, the Houston Astros have shown some serious promise for the future. Their stats aren’t impressive, but they have found ways to win ball games and have climbed from dead last in the 6-team NL Central to 4th place currently.  This is a testament to their new manager in 2010, Brad Mills. I got to know Mills well all the years he was the bench coach for the Red Sox and his demeanor and attitude is perfect for the Houston organization, assuming the GM can be patient with the team’s development.

The Astros have potential for the future with many younger players and an experienced major leaguer hitter as their batting coach in Jeff Bagwell. The Astros have young hitters like Hunter Pence in the outfield and Chris Johnson at 3rd base who with a little guidance, could be strong baseball players. The Astros organization needs to make a commitment to bring in another pitcher or two, preferably young guys, so the organization can mold and shape their team. I have been impressed with the team’s resolve, despite being out of contention since virtually April, which makes me believe this team could be a contender in a year or two.  As long as the team’s management is willing to invest in the future that is.

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HBP’s for the Chicago Cubs pitching staff this season, good for 2nd in the NL. The Chicago Cubs are another team in the category of disappointing 2010 campaigns. The Cubs appeared to have a solid team once again, with a chance to win their 4th NL Central title since 2003, but they never seemed to put together a complete effort and fell further and further back as the season wore on. Now, falling below the Houston Astros in the standings and into 5th place, they are in a free-fall that doesn’t seem to end well, in what has already been proclaimed as Lou Pinella’s last of 4 seasons at the helm of the cursed franchise. This will also be Pinella’s 1st losing season as the skipper of the Cubs and undoubtedly his most frustrating year to boot.

Throughout the year, the Cubs have had a remarkably good record sending out their starters every 5 days, needing to start just 6 guys all season, but unfortunately, just 2 of those starters have winning records on the year (Ryan Dempster, 11-8 and Carlos Silva, 10-5). They have even had a pretty consistent closer in Carlos Marmol, who is 21 for 25 in save opportunities with a 2.63 era.  Their inability to put together a solid pitching performance and offensive output, at the same time, has been the reason for their struggles. Sitting at 50-68, everyone involved with the organization is just waiting for the final out to be made so the off-season can begin.

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Payroll for the Pittsburgh Pirates, the lowest in baseball. Sitting at 39-78, the Pirates have the worst record in baseball to match the lowest payroll and are in a continual path of losing seasons unless their GM and management decides to invest in the team properly. I understand that most teams can’t afford to build a 9-figure payroll, but that doesn’t mean a team is automatically eliminated from the playoffs on day 4 of the season. The best example over the last decade was the Minnesota Twins. I say this because their payroll grew over $34,000,000 this year (ironically almost the size of the entire Pirates figure). For the past decade, the Twins organization has harvested young talent to finish at or near the top of the AL Central each and every year. It takes a true investment of time, money and infrastructure to build a winning franchise, so a yearly fire-sale isn’t going to get the Pirates anywhere.

It’s easy to give advice to a GM sitting at my computer, but anyone can see the horrible pattern of losing that has developed into a culture in Pittsburgh. It is a vicious cycle of needing money to compete in order to make money to reinvest in the club and continue to compete. It takes years to build up to a winning program, especially when beginning from the ground floor, but something needs to be done for the great sports fans in Pittsburgh. It is a great, loyal fan base (see the Pittsburgh Steelers) and is a city just dying for some high-quality baseball. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that a higher payroll and better baseball is in the Pirates future, at least not short-term.

Brian Phair – BoSox Injection – Notable Numerals

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