Analyzing the Derrek Lee Trade

The fourth trade of August saw Chicago Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee sent to the Atlanta Braves for three minor league pitchers: lefty Jeff Lorick and righties Robinson Lopez and Tyrelle Harris.

Lee is a strict rental who will see the $3.2 million he’s owed the rest of this year split between Chicago and Atlanta. His .251/.335/.416 line isn’t much of an upgrade over Troy Glaus‘ .239/.340/.406, but Lee is a much better defender, so he is the better player of the two.

That’s not much of an upgrade, though, and giving up three young players for him seems steep at first glance. Of course, none of the three pitchers acquired by Chicago is a blue-chipper, so let’s get a deeper look and see if any of them project as big-leaguers.

Lopez is a 19-year-old in Low-A, so he’s young for his level. That’s a nice start. Speaking of nice starts, Lopez opened 2010 with eight terrific relief outings, whiffing 27 batters in 20 2/3 innings.

That prompted the Braves to move him into the rotation, where Lopez has disappointed, with a meager 43/33 K/BB in 72 frames. July and August have seen him walk 17 batters while whiffing just 12.

Stuff-wise, he lacks a knockout pitch, with a generic low-90’s fastball/curveball/changeup repertoire. The relief results look good, so maybe he can be a nice middle reliever, but if you can’t make A-ball hitters swing and miss (even at age 19), you probably won’t be an impact starter. Scouts do like Lopez’s projectability, though, so I’m not going to completely write off his potential. He’s certainly more than a nobody, and has a real shot at the majors.

Speaking of potential major league relievers, Harris is another one, as he’s posted sub-3 FIPs at every stop along the minor league ladder while whiffing 84 batters in 69 career innings. He also has yet to allow a pro homer. The 23-year-old dominated High-A this year and was pitching solidly in Double-A at the time of the trade. He’s been used almost exclusively in relief, but he’s a big guy with a hard fastball, so that’s worth something. Harris’ offspeed stuff isn’t particularly interesting, but guys who throw hard and keep the ball down are always nice to have.

Lorick projects as a lefty specialist, although he’s worked as a Low-A swingman this year. His platoon splits are pretty massive, he’s on the small side, and scouts don’t like his stuff, so the 22-year-old looks like he’ll be moved to relief permanently in the near future. He touches 92 in relief and throws a good curveball.

It’s hard not to like this deal for the Cubs. They shed $1.6 million of salary, get rid of a player they a) don’t need, given their losing and b) would have lost in six weeks anyway, and they pick up three guys who all have major league bullpen potential, one of whom has a chance to start.

While Lee is an upgrade over Glaus, it’s likely not by much, and besides, the Braves have an overabundance of guys who could spot there, given that they’re rotating Martin Prado and Brooks Conrad at third and have Barbaro Canizares and Wes Timmons in the minors…not to mention top prospect Freddie Freeman. For my part, I’ll take Conrad’s .250/.336/.509 line and solid D over Lee any day (although Conrad is a bit short for 1B and doesn’t have much experience there). It’s fine for Atlanta that they want to send Bobby Cox out on top, but here’s a situation where they had plenty of ways to upgrade over Glaus, and they picked the one that was most expensive and least effective. Sure, it’s nice to give Cox all the ammunition he can get, but Atlanta didn’t have to send away three (albeit limited) potential big leaguers to do that.