The Kansas City Royals System

Note: Nathaniel’s system rundowns will no longer necessarily run on Saturdays.

It’s no secret that the Kansas City Royals have a lot of talent on the farm. They’ve been called the best farm system of the decade by many skilled evaluators, after all.

As a result, their system was one of the easiest to pick players for. Let’s take a look at this collection of possible future superstars.

System Overview: What more is there to be said? This is a fantastic group.

Every single player on this list, with the possible exception of the third outfielder, has a very legitimate chance of evolving into a solid starter or better. And beyond the players listed here, there’s a ton of depth, with guys like Clint Robinson, Cheslor Cuthbert, Paulo Orlando, David Lough, Robinson Yambati, Lucas May, etc.

It was pretty easy to pick out the best player at each spot–I went back and forth for the third outfielder for a while, but that was pretty much it. I doubt anything else, other than perhaps my particular ordering of the pitchers, will be at all controversial.

Catcher: Salvador Perez. It’s easy to overlook Perez’s .290/.322/.411 line and write him off as a Bengie Molina-type hitter who’s way too aggressive for his own good. Perhaps he is, and improving his plate discipline would do wonders for his prospectdom, but the fact is, Perez was a 20-year-old catcher in High-A last year and held his own, in a tough environment, no less. With just 38 strikeouts in 99 games, he consistently puts the ball in play, and he’s got some pop as well. A strong defender, he caught 42% of basestealers while allowing just 11 passed balls. There’s no reason he can’t be better than Bengie Molina.

Upside: 8.6, Downside: 3.8

First base: Eric Hosmer. Hosmer came in at #15 on my Top 100 Prospects:

"I jumped on the “Hosmer is overrated!” bandwagon right as he was drafted, and felt very good about that as he struggled to a .241/.334/.361 line last year. Whoops—he turned around and bashed the lights out in 2010, hitting .354/.429/.545 in High-A and .313/.365/.615 in Double-A, all before turning 21. Hosmer tightened up his strike zone a lot this year—how’s 66 K in 137 G for a power guy?—but still ripped 72 extra-base hits and showed an increased home run stroke in Double-A. He’s also a solid defender at first, and should be a true offensive force."

Upside: 9.7, Downside: 5.6

Second base: Johnny Giavotella. Giavotella hit .322/.395/.460 in Double-A and profiles as a nice gap-hitting second baseman. He walked 61 times and struck out just 67, and some of his 35 doubles could turn into homers down the line. He’s not a plus defender and likely never will be, but could be a poor man’s Dan Uggla.

Upside: 8.5, Downside: 5.5

Shortstop: Christian Colon. Something of an overdraft at fourth overall last year, Colon signed quickly and got in 60 games in High-A. Given Wilmington’s tough environment, his .276/.326/.376 line isn’t as bad as it looks, particularly for a 21-year-old as his first pro experience. Colon is considered stretched defensively at shortstop; a big motivation for the Alcides Escobar trade was to get Colon to second base, where scouts think he could excel. It’s not clear he’ll be able to outhit Giavotella and win that position long-term, however.

Upside: 8.2, Downside: 3.9

Third base: Mike Moustakas. The one they call “Moose” was my #13 prospect, slightly ahead of Hosmer:

"Lots jumped off the Moustakas bandwagon after a putrid .250/.297/.421 2009, but he came out swinging in 2010, hitting .347/.413/.687 in Double-A. His old plate discipline issues resurfaced in Triple-A, but he’s already shown he can rebound from that, and it’s hard to call his .564 Omaha slugging percentage a disappointment. Moustakas’ 36-homer output was an emphatic reminder as to why he was 2007’s 2nd overall pick—he could be an MVP-level star."

Upside: 9.8, Downside: 6.7

Outfielder #1: Wil Myers. The Royals recently announced Myers will move to right field from catcher, where he struggled with all sorts of passed ball problems. A top-shelf hitter, Myers came in at #7 on my Top 100 Prospects:

"Myers currently has all sorts of trouble catching the baseball, but he’s got a good arm and good athleticism for a catcher, so scouts remain open to the possibility he can catch. Everyone knows he’ll hit—he just mashed .346/.453/.512 in a pitcher’s park in a pitcher’s league against competition usually three or four years older than he. Even if he can’t stick at catcher, Myers has [Bryce] Harper-esque upside as an outfielder, and if he can stay behind the plate, greatness seems inevitable."

Upside: 9.9, Downside: 5.0

Outfielder #2: Brett Eibner. A power-hitting outfielder drafted in the second round last year, Eibner signed late and has yet to start his pro career. Also considered a talented pitching prospect in college, Eibner wanted to hit in the pros, and the Royals obliged and even gave him an over-slot $1.25 million. Known for his power and arm strength, Eibner also has good athleticism and plate discipline which should give him a broad-based skillset akin to a more athletic Nick Swisher.

Upside: 9.0, Downside: 2.5

Outfielder #3: Derrick Robinson. The slappy speedster Robinson continues to plug away, stealing nearly 50 bases each season and hitting for good averages. This past year, he tightened up his strike zone, getting to a reasonable 86/45 K/BB, and more improvements in that department could get him a top-of-the-order job in the majors. He’s one of the fastest players in baseball and is known as a fantastic defensive center fielder. Robinson should be a switch-hitting Rajai Davis with more patience.

Upside: 8.1, Downside: 5.8

Starting Pitcher #1: Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi was my #37 prospect on the Top 100, which was made prior to the trade that brought him to Kansas City:

"Odorizzi is yet another pitcher who carved up Low-A in 2010 despite being born in the ‘90s. The Brewers’ best prospect by a fair margin, he utilizes a tough running fastball in the low-to-mid-90’s, and he’s developing an out-pitch curveball. Odorizzi whiffed over ten batters per nine innings while keeping the ball down and limiting walks. He may wind up becoming Yovani Gallardo 2.0 for the Brewers, who could really use some plus starting pitching in the near future."

Upside: 9.1, Downside: 5.2

Starting Pitcher #2: John Lamb. Lamb came in at #38, one spot behind Odorizzi:

"Continuing the theme of youth, Lamb rocketed all the way to Double-A this year despite not turning 20 until mid-July. Nobody at either A-ball level could touch him. On pure upside, Lamb ranks below Salcedo and Erlin, as his stuff is merely solid-to-good across the board, with an 88-92 mph fastball and decent change/curve combo, but he’s an extremely polished pitcher who could wind up similar to the Mets incarnation of Johan Santana."

Upside: 9.0, Downside: 6.0

Starting Pitcher #3: Chris Dwyer. Dwyer was #55:

"Dwyer’s a year older than Montgomery, but he slots just ahead of his Northwest Arkansas teammate because he kept his strikeouts up in Double-A, although it was just four starts. Dwyer’s a bit less polished than Montgomery despite his 1988 birthday, but he may actually have slightly better stuff across the board. Sort of a Gio Gonzalez-type pitcher who can completely neutralize a lineup for stretches but also completely fall apart with his command at times, he has ace potential if he harnesses his stuff, but at 22, his lack of polish may relegate Dwyer to a mid-rotation role."

Upside: 9.2, Downside: 4.6

Starting Pitcher #4: Mike Montgomery. Montgomery was one spot behind Dwyer, at #56:

"Montgomery set himself up for a much higher ranking by opening the season with a 33/4 K/BB performance in 24 2/3 High-A innings at age 20. But he came crashing down to earth in Double-A, seeing his FIP jump from 1.01 to 3.97 and missing a couple of months due to injury. His walk rate nearly tripled and his strikeout rate was almost cut in half, so that’s definitely cause for concern. Still, Montgomery is just 21, and being a solid Double-A starter that young isn’t the worst thing in the world, after all. A lefty with the potential for a plus-across-the-board fastball-curve-change repertoire, he may fit best as a #2 starter long term, but he could take the Jon Lester path and be an ace."

Upside: 9.1, Downside: 6.0

Starting Pitcher #5: Danny Duffy. After nearly retiring at the start of 2010, Duffy came back midseason and pitched very well. He doesn’t have dominating stuff, and the weirdness surrounding his retirement precluded me from putting him on the Top 100, but those really are minor quibbles; he was on my Top 100 last year, and his upside remains unchanged: a harder-throwing Mark Buehrle.

Upside: 9.0, Downside: 5.7

Relief Pitcher #1: Tim Collins. Collins made it to Triple-A at age 20 after going undrafted three years ago; how many people can claim that. The diminutive lefty has a huge out-pitch curveball, and his fastball is very solid as well. Collins is arguably the best lefty relief prospect in the game: his only real competition is Donnie Joseph.

Upside: 9.3, Downside: 6.9

Relief Pitcher #2: Jeremy Jeffress. Jeffress ranks behind Collins because he’s had far less success in the minors, particularly in the control department. With a mid-90′s fastball and big hard curveball, he’s got impact potential if he can keep his control reined in, which was a huge problem for him as a starter. 2010 was his first season as a reliever, and things seemed to go well, but he’ll need to prove he can do it again.

Upside: 9.4, Downside: 5.8