The Arizona Diamondbacks System

In the antepenultimate edition of my system reviews, we’re going to be looking at the Arizona Diamondbacks system.

System Overview:

Everybody loves this system. I really don’t get why. I think Arizona has the second-most overrated system after Boston, but that’s just me, I suppose.

That’s not to say there isn’t talent here. Still, I’m not impressed with the hitting. Paul Goldschmidt and Marc Krauss have yet to play in a non-ridiculous offensive environment, Chris Owings never walks, and Matt Davidson has a bunch of issues too. The depth at catcher and second base is weak, and the outfield isn’t particularly interesting.

I know that sounds like a rather round and swift dismissal of what’s considered to be a solid group of position player prospects. Part of it, I think, is that many of them (Davidson and Owings in particular) are so young and unpolished that they have very low floors. Certainly, Krauss, Goldschmidt, Davidson, and Owings could all become starters at left field, first base, third base, and shortstop, respectively, but none of them have done enough to convince me that they’re really on that path. Obviously, I’ll try to explain that a little bit more in the individual player profiles, and if my reasoning’s unclear, feel free to ask me more about it in the comments. I’m not trying to bash Arizona’s system or anything; it’s just my opinion here.

As far as pitching goes, I’ve never been a huge Jarrod Parker apologist–when you combine that with my trepidation regarding most of the hitters, it’s easy to see why I’m not as high on this system as most. Still, though, the news isn’t all bad, even from my rather pessimistic perspective–the next four pitching prospects after Parker, all lefties, are players I’m quite high on, most notably David Holmberg. Overall, therefore, the pitching grades out as a bit above-average, even though there’s no true ace in the bunch. It’s the same thing in the bullpen–there’s no future shutdown guy, but a lot of pitchers who can become seventh-or-eighth-inning relievers.

Most people rank this system around 10th in the game. I’d actually put it in the 16-22 range somewhere, although continued success from the four big bats in 2011 would do a lot to alleviate my concerns.

Catcher: Konrad Schmidt. Schmidt made a brief MLB cameo last year, going 1-for-8. He spent the rest of the year at Double-A despite turning 26 in August, but he’s improved with the bat every year and hit .315/.373/.490 last season. Schmidt isn’t known for his arm, but is a solid receiver behind the dish. His blend of contact, power, and defense could give him a Ramon Castro-esque role.

Upside: 7.4, Downside: 6.1

First base: Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt was the only Arizona prospect to make my Top 100, just squeezing in at #98. I probably wouldn’t put him on the Top 100 today, six months later, and I might have put some of the pitchers on, but regardless, my sentiments at the time remain fairly similar:

"A .314/.386/.606 line is going to land somebody on some top 100 lists, particularly when it comes in High-A at age 22 and contains 35 homers.There’s a reason Goldschmidt checks in this low, though.First off, he’s just an adequate first baseman with zero defensive value, so his bat has to carry him.With the offensive bar already raised that high, Goldschmidt shows some chinks in his armor. First, he whiffs way too much, with 161 K in 138 games. You don’t hit .314 for long with that sort of ratio.Second, Goldschmidt shows a huge platoon split, hitting .413/.453/.860 against southpaws and just .277/.359/.510 against his fellow righties.And finally, of course, Goldschmidt’s huge year came in the California League, which inflates offensive numbers like crazy. Put him in the Southern League, and he won’t be cracking 35 homers or hitting for .300 averages when striking out like this.That’s a lot of negativity for a top 100 prospect, though, and the fact remains that Goldschmidt just had a huge year, projects as a lefty’s nightmare, and stands to be a solid power threat in the majors. There’s always Chris Davis bust potential with these types, but it’s far too early to go there."

Upside: 9.2, Downside: 5.5

Second base: David Nick. Nick headlines a weak second base class; he hit a meek .251/.318/.366 in Low-A last year, but he was just 20, so there’s a chance he rebounds, particularly in the Cal League. Nick’s a fundamentally sound if unspectacular defender with a bunch of rather average offensive tools. His approach is okay, and he’s got a little bit of pop, but not enough to make him too much of a prospect. The 4th-rounder from 2009 needs a big year in 2011, but he’s got some time to improve at his age.

Upside: 7.3, Downside: 2.2

Shortstop: Chris Owings. The good: Owings, a shortstop who was 18 for most of 2010, hit .298/.323/.447 in Low-A. The bad: he posted a 50/9 K/BB in 62 games, and now has a 75/12 K/BB in 86 career games. That’s got to stop. You can praise Owings’ contact skills all you want, but 75 strikeouts in 86 games doesn’t reflect the sort of Ichiro-esque contact required to overcome so few walks. Owings’ approach evokes Josh Vitters, who’s run into a lot of trouble as he’s advanced due to the lack of walks. The shortstop doesn’t distinguish himself with his speed, and his defense at short isn’t great either, so if he doesn’t learn some plate discipline, the best-case scenario is that his power develops anyway and he becomes Khalil Greene with worse defense. If he can walk at an average rate, however, Owings’ all-around offensive skills will make him a dynamic shortstop prospect.

Upside: 8.6, Downside: 3.2

Third base: Matt Davidson. Davidson, also young for full-season ball at 19 last year, hit .289/.371/.504 in Low-A. However, he strikes out too much, flopped in the Cal League (.169/.298/.268 in 21 games), and is a very poor defensive third baseman who may have to move to first down the line. He actually spent about half his games at DH last year, which is never a good sign for a supposed top prospect, and only fielded .896 in Low-A. Unlike Owings, Davidson’s approach is decent for his age, and he’s got some power, but the defensive issues loom large–like Goldschmidt, we’ll have to see if he can crush upper-minors pitching enough to merit a major league first base job.

Upside: 8.8, Downside: 3.7

Outfielder #1: Marc Krauss. Krauss’ numbers look nice on the surface, as he hit .302/.371/.509 in High-A. Still, he’s a defensively-challenged outfielder whose calling card is his power, and moving out of the Cal League could hurt his bat. Like the other power prospects in the system, he’s a 2009 draftee who simply hasn’t gotten to a level where his bat can be accurately judged yet, and until we see what he’s capable of in Double-A, it’s tough to get too excited about him. After all, the .302/.371/.509 line is nice, but he was a 22-year-old left fielder playing in a hitter-friendly High-A league, and it’s not like he went all Pujols on it. Due to his mediocre left field defense and high strikeout totals, he’s got to slug 20 homers in 2011 to stay appealing.

Upside: 8.5, Downside: 4.7

Outfielder #2: Collin Cowgill. Cowgill had no problems jumping from High-A to Double-A, cutting his strikeouts dramatically and hitting .285/.360/.464, an improvement from the .277/.373/.445 line of 2009. He’s undersized, but packs 15-HR power in his bat, and Cowgill even swiped a career-high 25 bases in 2010. With solid but unspectacular skills across the board, he’s an ideal fourth outfielder. He’ll be 25 in May, though, so he’ll need to hit in his first shot in Triple-A to avoid being just another PCL mediocrity long-term.

Upside: 7.6, Downside: 5.9

Outfielder #3: Adam Eaton. No, this isn’t the oft-injured pitcher pulling a Rick Ankiel–Eaton is a center fielder who was drafted in the 20th round last year and then put up an absurd .385/.500/.575 line in Rookie ball. Now, he’s almost three years older than Owings, and over two years older than Davidson, but well behind them on the organizational ladder, so let’s not go nuts, but that statline is ridiculous, especially considering that Eaton also swiped 20 bases. The Pioneer League is offense-heavy, but Eaton’s success seemed more to do with contact, discipline, and speed than power, so he’s not as park-dependent as guys like Goldschmidt or Krauss. I actually considered moving Eaton all the way ahead of Krauss, but declined due to his obvious inexperience; still, watch out for him.

Upside: 8.6, Downside: 2.2

Starting Pitcher #1: Jarrod Parker. Parker missed all of 2010 after Tommy John surgery, but the short righty remains a hot commodity. Just 22, he’ll open 2011 in the upper minors, and could reach Arizona before the end of the season. He spent most of 2009 in Double-A. Parker’s a hard thrower with two well-developed breaking pitches and a playable changeup. None of his stuff is quite “knockout” enough for me to project him as an ace, but assuming he comes back strong from the surgery, his above-average-all-around package should make him a good #2 or #3 starter.

Upside: 9.0, Downside: 5.5

Starting Pitcher #2: Tyler Skaggs. Skaggs was the big prize of the Dan Haren deal (sorry, Joe Saunders), and he’ll start 2011 in High-A despite not turning 20 until July. He’s got a big curveball and a solid fastball/changeup combination. With a 102/25 K/BB in 98 1/3 innings, he was too good for Low-A hitters last year, even though most were younger than Skaggs. He’s got a lanky, projectable body and could add velocity, sitting around 92 mph once he matures. With his command and groundball ability, Skaggs’ upside is somewhere in between that of Clayton Richard and Clayton Kershaw.

Upside: 8.7, Downside: 3.9

Starting Pitcher #3: David Holmberg. Holmberg is a huge lefty who also has a knee-buckling breaking ball. He was also brought over in a trade–for Edwin Jackson–and promptly ran up a 47/7 K/BB for Arizona’s rookie ball affiliate in 37 1/3 innings. Also just 19, he only throws in the upper 80’s, but the out-pitch curve and a solid changeup could allow him to be a Barry Zito type, with less success than early Zito but fewer control problems than current Zito.

Upside: 8.7, Downside: 3.4

Starting Pitcher #4: Pat Corbin. Another lefty acquired in the Haren trade, Corbin has an average-across-the-board repertoire, but even though he doesn’t dazzle with stuff, he had no problems in the Cal League before or after the trade despite just turning 21 in July. He posted a 94/27 K/BB in 86 1/3 innings and is clearly ready to take on the upper minors. Corbin looks like a good bet to be a solid third or fourth starter.

Upside: 8.3, Downside: 4.4

Starting Pitcher #5: Wade Miley. Miley’s a groundball specialist who managed to allow just one homer in 80 1/3 Cal League innings last year, an impressive feat indeed. He allowed a few more after a promotion to Double-A, but made up for it by improving his K/BB ratio. Miley’s got a good 88-93 mph sinker and a variety of decent offspeed pitches. While he doesn’t have much upside in the way of strikeouts, his groundball ability will be a big help in Chase Field, and he’s a good bet to eat innings in the back of a big league rotation. I’d call him Paul Maholm 2.0.

Upside: 8.2, Downside: 5.0

Relief Pitcher #1: Bryan Woodall. Woodall and his knockout slider evoke Michael Wuertz, and he had no trouble in the Cal League either, posting a 51/10 K/BB in 37 2/3 innings. He also posted a 25/3 K/BB in Double-A. He’s not a particularly hard thrower, and Woodall’s already 24, but his slider is a wipeout pitch that could give him a Wuertz/Luke Gregerson-esque career as a shutdown middle/setup man.

Upside: 8.3, Downside: 4.9

Relief Pitcher #2: Eury De La Rosa. De La Rosa is a tiny lefthander who posted incredible numbers in short-season-A last year, with a 56/14 K/BB, no homers, and just 23 hits allowed in 45 innings. Just 21, he’s got good velocity for his size and both of his offspeed pitches are quality. He could be an excellent lefty reliever in the majors.

Upside: 8.1, Downside: 2.7