Analyzing the Mark Ellis/Bruce Billings Trade

As Blaine already reported earlier today, the Oakland A’s have traded second baseman Mark Ellis to the Colorado Rockies for relief pitcher Bruce Billings and a player to be named later.

It should be noted that, in a deal where all that was exchanged was a middling veteran infielder and middling upper-minors reliever, who the PTBNL is makes a huge difference as to who got the better end of the deal. For the purpose of this analysis, though, I’m going to assume that the second player going to Oakland wasn’t of all that much consequence–PTBNLs often are just low-minors throw-ins, and in any case, it’s doubtful that Ellis would fetch too much more in a trade.

With that said, let’s see what went down here in the first big trade of 2011.

Really, the most important part of the deal isn’t that the Rockies received Ellis, or that the A’s received Billings. Rather, it’s that the A’s finally stopped blocking better and younger players with Ellis.

Now 35, the second baseman hasn’t been that much of an asset to Oakland, at least in a starting role, for quite some time. He hit .233/.321/.373 in 2008, but his good defense was enough to make him a decent starter. 2009 saw Ellis’ defense take a slide, though, and he’s been merely slightly above-average, as opposed to stellar, since. That makes batting lines like 2009’s .263/.305/.403, and certainly this season’s .217/.253/.290, much more difficult to carry. Yes, he hit .291/.358/.381 last year, but that was fueled by a BABIP 30 points above his career mark, and without the boost in batting average that provided, 2010 would’ve been a bad year too.

The A’s kept Ellis around through all of that, re-signing him and picking up options. They blocked Brooks Conrad and Steve Tolleson, two better-hitting second basemen, with him, and ultimately, both Conrad and Tolleson wound up out of the organization. With Jemile Weeks, Scott Sizemore, and Adrian Cardenas all knocking on the door, it was long past time for the A’s to finally close the door on the Ellis era at second base. And with Weeks hitting .303/.346/.461 while Ellis was out, they finally committed to their second baseman of the future.

So, kudos to Billy Beane & Co. for that much, even if it really was two years too late on that front. Ridding themselves of a player (and a salary) they didn’t need is good, even if they got nothing in return at all.

Of course, they did get something in return, which makes the deal sweeter for Oakland. Billings is a righthander with a long history of solid performance in the minors. He’s pitched in some truly awful environments in the minors and never posted an ERA above 4.50, and he’s always put up decent strikeout numbers. Billings has one MLB appearance this season, the first for the 25-year-old.

A hard thrower with iffy offspeed stuff, Billings could conceivably fill a fifth-starter, swing, or middle relief role competently in the big leagues, and he can do it basically from Day 1 with the A’s. Of course, those sort of fill-in, moving-parts types aren’t the sort of players a team should go out of their way to acquire, but when you’re dealing a 35-year-old hitting .217 with no secondary skills, to get someone of Billings’ caliber in return is definitely a nice return. And the A’s know that well–their fourth and fifth starters, Guillermo Moscoso and Graham Godfrey, were both acquired in a similar fashion at some point, and suddenly became important when Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson went down.

So the A’s did what they sorely needed to do and got a nice live arm in return. That might make you ask “What the hell were the Rockies doing?”

Well, Billings isn’t the sort of guy an organization goes out of their way to keep, since there are plenty of players who can throw 94 mph sitting around in Triple-A. He may or may not become a solid middle reliever, but that applies to just about any non-top prospect in Triple-A. Colorado’s got other guys like Edgmer Escalona and Andy Graham who can still provide relief depth. 25-year-old pitchers with 4.47 relief ERAs and under a strikeout per inning are about as generic as players come, even though they can help a team out.

As for Ellis, he’ll still play solid defense in Colorado, and moving from Oakland to the thin air of Coors Field will only help his numbers. And, to be fair, he’s not likely to continue hitting this poorly–his BABIP is just .249, for one. As a glove-oriented reserve and occasional starter against left-handed pitchers, Ellis can be serviceable, and his contract is off the books after the season, so he makes more sense on a Rockies team that’s at least somewhat in contention than on an Oakland squad that’s still building.

It should also be noted that the Rockies’ second basemen have hit just .228/.276/.304 this year, a .265 wOBA that ranks third-worst in the majors, and even worse than Oakland’s .277 (largely propped up by Weeks). So Ellis can’t really be much worse than that, and if he’s back in even 2008-09 form the rest of the way (.312 wOBA) it would be a big upgrade. He’s also a defensive upgrade over the five-headed monster the Rockies have run out there at the keystone this year.

Overall, this deal makes sense for both teams, although I have to wonder if Colorado couldn’t have done better, either in giving up a less valuable player or acquiring a more valuable one.