Diamond Deities: Umpire Error, Altered Outcomes

It is an unfortunate truth about baseball: umpire error is widely accepted, and sometimes applauded. Traditionalists commonly refer to umpire error as “the human element,” in an attempt to portray such mistakes as desirable. I suppose one could make the case that the “human element,” as it relates to umpires, makes the game of baseball more entertaining or intriguing. However, one thing is not debatable: bad calls by umpires are often instrumental in determining the outcomes of games. How fans accept this is beyond me. The outcome of a game should be determined solely by the play of the teams on the field. An “impartial” third-party official should have no subjective influence on the game.

To demonstrate the impact of a missed call, we will look at the July 16^th game between the Reds and the Cardinals. (In the interest of full disclosure, it should be noted that I am a Reds fan). The Cardinals won this contest 4-1. In the top of the 5^th inning. Albert Pujols crushed a 2-1 pitch from Bronson Arroyo for a 3-run HR that proved to be the decisive blow. However, the previous pitch might have been just as important, due to a missed call.

Here is the Pitch F/X data from the at-bat in question (click the image to enlarge):

As you can see, the 3^rd pitch of the AB was called a ball by umpire Mike Winters, despite being located in the strike-zone. As a result, the 4^th pitch of the AB came on a 2-1 count, instead of a 1-2 count. If you think that is insignificant, consider the following:

Pujols (career) after 2-1 count
BA/OBP/SLG – .318/.450/.580
OPS – 1.030
AB/HR – 15.7

Pujols (career) after 1-2 count
BA/OBP/SLG – .273/.320/.477
OPS – .797
AB/HR – 21.5

Opposing hitters vs. Arroyo (career) after 2-1 count
BA/OBP/SLG – .260/.374/.435
OPS – .808
AB/HR – 27.5

Opposing hitters vs. Arroyo (career) after 1-2 count
BA/OBP/SLG – .200/.250/.327
OPS – .577
AB/HR – 39.8

Clearly, Albert Pujols is a much better hitter after the count reaches 2-1 than he is after a 1-2 count. Likewise, Arroyo is far worse after a 2-1 count than a 1-2 count. The missed call by the umpire significantly increased the probability that Pujols would hit a HR, while significantly decreasing the likelihood that Pujols would make an out.

The probability difference between 2-1 and 1-2:
Pujols hitting a HR – 28% more likely
Arroyo giving up a HR – 31% more likely
Pujols reaching base – 29% more likely
Arroyo recording an out – 33% less likely

Sour Grapes?

Some objections that may be running through your head:

“So what? The umpire missed a call on a close pitch. Arroyo should’ve made a better pitch…” – Sure, Arroyo could’ve “buckled down” and recorded the out, but he shouldn’t have been put in the position to pitch from behind in the count against the game’s best hitter. He threw 2 of the first 3 pitches in the zone. A 1-2 count should’ve been the result.

“Bad calls even out. One day a call will hurt your team, the next day it will work in your favor… “ – Is there any evidence for this argument? Do you really think that bad calls “even out?” Sure, every team has benefitted from a bad call at some point, but I find it impossible to believe that it works out in a wash.

“Albert Pujols has earned a generous strike zone.” – Sorry, no he hasn’t. The rules of the game are not open to interpretation and variation based on the player. If a ball crosses the plate in the strike zone, it should be called a strike, regardless of who is hitting or pitching.

Deities Decree

In the example above, a missed call by an umpire significantly altered the probability of various outcomes. The hitter took advantage of the mistake and hit a 3-run HR, in a game which was ultimately decided by 3 runs. Whether this example influences your opinion or not, umpire error must be addressed. If MLB executives continue to oppose the use of replay and/or computer systems to help umpires get the calls right, they must pursue new ways to hold umpires accountable in order to preserve the integrity of the game.

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