Analyzing the Tigers/Royals Wilson Betemit Trade

Two days ago, the Royals sent third baseman Wilson Betemit to the division rival Tigers for two minor leaguers.

Will Betemit solve Detroit’s third base problems? Will the prospects they gave up continue to boost Kansas City’s heralded farm system? Let’s find out.

Let’s start with the (somewhat) known quantity here in Betemit. After a long period of wandering early in his career, he’s done a nice job with Kansas City over the last two seasons, hitting .290/.361/.466. His .358 wOBA in that span is seventh-best among third basemen with over 500 PAs.

By that measure, he’s a sure-fire starter and key offensive cog, but that’s not the end of the story with him. While he’s been worth about 32 runs above replacement with the bat in 2010-11 (142 games, approximately one season), he’s given back seventeen of them with poor defense. One could chalk that up to small sample, but Betemit has a poor defensive reputation, and he also rated below average defensively in every other partial season he’s played.

Given that he’s barely adequate at third and probably not athletic enough to play the outfield, Betemit didn’t really have anywhere to play on a team that features Mike Moustakas at third base, Eric Hosmer at first base, and Billy Butler at DH (not to mention Clint Robinson and Kila Ka’aihue biding their time in Triple-A until they get an opportunity and Mike Aviles around too).

So, the Royals had really no use for Betemit, but the fact remains that he can hit the ball better than most third basemen, so some team could use that value. And what better team could there be than Detroit, a contender that has gotten a combined .210/.265/.293 line from their third basemen this season?

With Brandon Inge‘s .177/.242/.242 line forcing their hand, the AL Central-leading Tigers badly needed a decent third baseman. While Betemit may just be a 1.5 win player per season, thus meaning he’s likely to add just seven runs or so over a replacement third baseman the rest of the way, we must also factor in that Inge was worth nine runs below replacement in his half-season, so if he was going to keep that level up, then Betemit’s value to Detroit the rest of the way basically doubles.

Of course, we can’t conclude that Inge was necessarily going to be that bad–he’s been a useful player in the past–but 70 games of that mess is enough to certainly render this a clear upgrade for Detroit.

So, on that front, this makes perfect sense. Betemit was needed by Detroit and not Kansas City, so he went from the Royals to the Tigers. The only thing left to sort out is if the return–minor league pitcher Antonio Cruz and catcher Julio Rodriguez–is the best deal the Royals could have gotten.

A lot of that is just speculation, since nobody knows what other offers Dayton Moore got for Betemit, but it’s doubtful there were that many teams interested in him. Sixteen teams have already gotten one WAR or more from their third basemen, and only four or five of the others can be reasonably considered contenders looking for upgrades.

Rodriguez, not to be confused with the highly-touted Phillies pitching prospect of the same name, was hitting .283/.325/.354 with Lakeland of the High-A Florida State League. Certainly, he puts the ball in play (28 K in 66 games) which is a nice attribute for a catcher. Rodriguez lacks power or plate discipline, but he’s just 21 and he’s shown he can hit for average at an age-appropriate level. He’s also caught 36% of attempted basestealers in his career, including 34% this season, and boasts solid receiving skills.

In other words, Rodriguez isn’t likely to become a viable starting catcher, since he’s just a solid defender with contact skills and little else. But that could be enough to allow him to be a backup in the Matt Treanor mold.

Cruz is a bit more interesting. Anybody playing full-season ball as a teenager and having any measure of success holds promise, and Cruz fits that description. He threw 75 1/3 solid innings for Low-A West Michigan as a swingman, with a 58/28 K/BB, 3.11 ERA, and just five homers allowed. By no means is that stellar, but given that he’s facing hitters often two or three years older than him, he’s a solid prospect who adds to the next wave of young Royals arms, always important for a Kansas City team that will always need to rebuild through the farm system. He’s undersized, but gets his fastball up to 91-92 mph and boasts a big overhand curveball that is devastating when it’s on. If he’s going to stay a starter, he needs to improve his changeup, but he’s got time to do that.

So, neither prospect is overwhelming, and neither looks likely to become a good starter, but both have time on their side and legitimate shots at becoming role players–which is exactly what Betemit is. So, it’s not a flashy return for Kansas City, but it works, given how few teams would have been bidding on Betemit. And it’s a reasonable amount for the Tigers to give up in return for the upgrade at third.

And thus, the deal works for both sides.