Super Market Sweep: C.J. Wilson

I am greatly intrigued by what will come in the ensuing winter months for one C.J. Wilson.  He will no doubt be a hot commodity come hot stove season, as he is the pitcher toting the most success on the free-agent block this winter.

There are two things that make this interesting to me personally:

A:  He has had a crummy postseason, which many argue will hurt his stock in November.

B:  I often find myself wondering – “How good is C.J. Wilson?  Sometimes, he simply doesn’t seem to have great stuff.”

Regardless of what I think about Wilson’s arsenal, if you look at his body of work over the last two seasons, it’s difficult not to put him on what I’ll call the “second tier” of MLB left-handed pitchers.  Basically on top you have Cliff Lee and Clayton Kershaw.  If you want to throw C.C. Sabathia into that group you’ll get no argument from me.

Then in tier two you have Cole Hammels, Madison Bumgarner and yes, C.J. Wilson.

If you want to get a feel for Wilson’s worth examining Hammels and Bumgarner, you aren’t going to find much help.  Bumgarner is barely old enough to legally drink, making $450K entering year two of pre-arbitration.  Meanwhile Hammels, a former first-round pick, was rewarded a deal in some ways similar to Evan Longoria‘s.  The Phillies’ lefty inked a $20.5 million deal for three years in his pre-arb days.

The more I hunt for a base-line, or a pitcher who recently has been in a similar situation as Wilson is about to enter, the more I come up empty.  Plenty of pitchers have similar numbers to C.J., they are just in different stages of their career.  In most situations, they are younger guys, who are obviously making a lot less money.

Unfortunately, the extension Jared Weaver signed this year may have a decent-sized impact on Wilson’s next deal.  Jared Weaver signed a five-year, $85 million contract which will keep him in his home state of California.  Now, Weaver posted a lower ERA and two more wins than Wilson in 2011.  I am surprised to see Wilson did put up a higher K-rate than Weaver this year though.

Also, I have to note one more time C.J. Wilson has not impressed during the Rangers’ postseason run.  In his five starts during these playoffs, Wilson is surrendering a .287/.410/.535 line to the opposition.  He is 0-3 with an ERA a tick over 6.00.  He has also given up six home runs.

If you want to tell me this is a small sample size, that’s fine, but I was told legends are born in October, and this is not what I’d deem to be a legendary performance.

There is also the notion that C.J. Wilson is getting tired and may be simply out of gas.  To that I’d respond, that isn’t good.  Wilson, at the age of 30, should be in the prime of his career.  Yes, Wilson hit 223 innings this year, which is a lot.  But if C.J. Wilson and his agent want an “ace” type deal this off-season, they might have another thing coming.  I can’t imagine many teams will be thrilled about the effort C.J. has displayed during this year’s playoff run.

If money is the primary objective for C.J. Wilson this winter, he might want to heed this advice – sign on with a ball club that really needs starting pitching.  Given the right situation, Wilson could see a deal sniffing the $100 million mark, even though I’d strongly argue he is not worth that kind of money.

For example, most of you probably remember the “wtf” deal Jayson Werth inked last winter.  Maybe Washington decides they’re interested in sky-rocketing the market for Wilson in the up-coming months.  Also, the New York Yankees are in desperate need of another reliable arm on their staff.  Perhaps they are the team who decides to get gung-ho for Mr. Wilson.

I also wouldn’t be all that surprised to see the Orioles or the Blue Jays make plays at Wilson.  Personally, I’d love to see C.J. go to Toronto.  I think more players should feel the need to challenge themselves in Baltimore or Toronto, and see how they’d fare throwing against the Bostons and New Yorks on a regular basis.

So with all that being said, I would say Wilson probably deserves a deal in the vicinity of $70-75 million.  Like I said, there are factors working against him such as this year’s postseason performance and the Weaver extension.  However, there are also things working in his favor.  These things include a couple desperate rich teams known as the Nationals and the Yankees.  Also, despite the fact I’m not a huge C.J. Wilson fan, the guy has built a nice track record the last two seasons.  Oh, and there is also the whole inflation thing.