2012 MLB Free Agents: Edwin Jackson
All the buzz in this year’s Hot Stove Season concerning starting pitchers has surrounded C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle. The hype around Wilson is understandable, as he is unquestionably the best starter available. There are concerns surrounding Wilson, and he is commanding a large contract. Buehrle is one of the most consistent pitchers in the game, and former teammate Edwin Jackson is just as good- albeit far less consistent. Sure he always gets traded, but that’s not his fault. He has been worth around 3.8 WAR for the last three seasons, and he has consistently been an above-average pitcher since his breakout year with the Tigers in 2009.
Jackson had a 3.79 ERA last season, but his FIP was 3.55 which led to a WAR of 3.8. He was one of the top 40 starters last season, but his FIP is actually quite generous because his high BABIP (.330) was actually not based solely on luck. Jackson’s line-drive rate was an insane 24.9%, but it does seem like a statistical anomaly compared to his career totals (under 19% the two previous seasons). Again, a pitcher’s true value is between their ERA and estimators, so Jackson was probably around a 3.70 ERA last year.
Although Jackson has a 95 mile per hour fastball with a nasty slider, his K/9 was a paltry 6.67 (right in line with his career average of 6.68). He improved his walk rate (2.79 BB/9) but did get lucky with his HR/FB ratio. Jackson induced less grounders, but he didn’t pay for it with an 8.2% HR/FB compared to a career average of 9.7%. So while there was a little bit of bad luck that hurt Jackson, there was more good luck that helped him out when we scratch the BABIP surface.
The problem with Edwin Jackson is while his fastball hover around the mid-90’s, he has a huge problem with locating it and most of his fastballs end up catching far too much of the plate. He is actually beginning to throw less fastballs as the years go on, and this has helped his performance. You can look at it two ways: either his fastball is getting better with less usage, or its ineffectiveness is limited.
We can all agree that Jackson’s best pitch is easily his slider, and it was a beauty from 2008-2010. He’s started to throw his slider more with the decrease in fastball usage, and that hasn’t exactly helped his slider’s overall effectiveness. Hitters are starting to key in on it, but it’s still a good pitch, and Jackson does locate it well.
Like most pitchers, Jackson uses his slider against hitters who have the same dominant hand (right), and his changeup against lefties. It is a fairly mediocre pitch that he spots on the outer half of the plate, and the only problem with it is that he doesn’t generate enough strikes with it.
Jackson will most likely be worth around 3.5 WAR next season, and he is a slightly undervalued pitcher who should make around 12 million dollars on the open market and maybe a little more. The Yankees believe that his price is currently too high, but it should come down to around 12 million. Jackson is a safe bet to have an erratic but overall decent year (paradox), and the mercurial righty is definitely one of the best free agent starters out there. Any team looking for help in the rotation should call him up, and teams who are worried about C.J. Wilson should take a long look at Edwin Jackson. Although it is obvious that Wilson is the better pitcher, not many teams want to tie up that much money and years into one guy. I expect Jackson to get around three years and 12 million per year, which is only one million more per year than what Ted Lilly made in the 2010 offseason. Lilly was obviously older and less effective, and Jackson is a solid 28-year old target who could be signed for under market value.