David DeJesus Signs with the Chicago Cubs
Theo Epstein just made his first significant move with the Cubs, as the team signed quality right fielder David DeJesus to a two-year deal worth $10 million in guaranteed money according to Jon Heyman. This was a downright steal, because $5 million is what a team pays a 1.2 WAR player; DeJesus is better than that. He had a down year at the dish last season, yet he was still worth 2.2 WAR. He will be 32 in December, but DeJesus has not shown signs of decline and will actually be better at the plate next season. The Cubs paid him less than market value, and they have ended up bagging a solid starter in right for the next two seasons.
DeJesus posted a wOBA of .337 in 2009 and a 3.63 wOBA in 2010, but that number digressed to a slightly below-average .309 last season. Although he did chase more pitches at the plate and lost a little contact, the “decline” wasn’t significant at all, and DeJesus was still above-average in O-Swing% on Contact%. He’s always been one of the better hitters in the league in these two categories, and I see his career-high strikeout rate of 17% as an aberration that will likely regress to the mean in 2012.
Most people who are pointing to a bounce-back season in 2012 from DeJesus point to his career BABIP of .316. That number has been steady throughout his time in the Bigs, yet his BABIP last season was a career-low .274. This isn’t all due to bad luck, as he had a 10.0 IFFB%, which means that one-tenth of his hits were infield flies. This really is unlikely to repeat, but it shows that not all of DeJesus’s BABIP was driven by luck. A higher percentage of fly balls also ticks some points off of the ol’ batting average (on balls in play), and his FB% increased by about five percent from the previous season.
It seems unlikely that DeJesus suddenly became less effective in 2011, and it really isn’t the result of a decline. His HR/FB% was a steady 7.7%, and his .136 ISO is in-line with his career average. DeJesus is obviously not known for his ability to drive the ball, but it is nice to know that he isn’t getting any worse in that department.
We should expect David DeJesus’s BABIP to be near his career average of .316 in 2012, and Bill James projects his BABIP to be .312 next season. His 95 wRC+ last season stings a little bit, mainly because he posted wRC+ totals of 114, 100, and 125 in the three seasons prior. I project his wOBA to be about .330 next season, which means that his overall wRC+ would be around 105.
Not only is DeJesus an above-average hitter thanks to good patience (8.9 BB%), but he is also a very good fielder who provides some value on the bases. While DeJesus admittedly doesn’t have the greatest arm out there in right, he does possess great range and saved 13 runs according to DRS. UZR says that he saved 7.5 runs last season, and he is consistently regarded as one of the better defensive players in baseball by the advanced defensive metrics.
At just $5 million dollars a year, the Cubs are getting much more than they bargained for. A 2-2.5 WAR player is worth $10 million per season, and that’s exactly what David DeJesus is guaranteed to receive over the course of his deal. He may only be a little bit above-average at the plate, which is still very good for the contract, but he more than makes up for the lack of greatness with his ability to play D and make sound decisions as a base-runner. Although this signing doesn’t do any favors for Brett Jackson right now, it does a lot of good for the Cubs. Epstein has proven that the Cubs know how to find talent without overpaying. In all, this was a great first move made by him, and DeJesus will certainly outperform his new contract. He’s one of those solid players, and you know what you’re going to get out of him. That actually hurts his value in the average fan’s eyes, but who said the average fan makes the moves in the front office? Again, a shrewd play from the Cubs which helps a team that seemingly hasn’t made one for a long time.