Miami Marlins sign Jose Reyes
The Marlins were for real when they said that changes were coming, and the six-year $106 million given to Jose Reyes can attest to this new-found energy in South Florida. The Marlins have went from stingy to a team willing to do whatever it takes to bring in marquee free agents. This deal to Jose Reyes isn’t without risk, as most shortstops at his age and with his injury risk aren’t sure things. However, Reyes is one of the best shortstops in the league, and his deal is right around market value. Reyes also has enormous upside and has the chance to be worth 6 WAR. He is legitimately one of the best players in baseball, so a deal like this is certainly warranted; especially considering that the team that signed him isn’t a contender quite yet.
If a win is worth about $4.97 million dollars, then the Marlins are expecting Jose Reyes to be worth about 3.6 WAR per season during his contract (about $17.7 million per season). Reyes owns a career 112 wRC+, and he should be able to eclipse this mark; even if he only plays in 120-130 games per season in his new deal.
A common worry is that Reyes’s 2011 season’s .384 OBP was based largely on a .353 BABIP, and he really did benefit from luck. However, Reyes was never likely to post an insane 149 wRC+ during most years of his contract, and he should have a wRC+ of around 120. That’s still really good for a shortstop, and he also provides about average defense with the ability to steal over 30 bases in a season. $17.7 million is a good deal overall, and that’s not even mentioning the revenue that the hype and jersey sales will provide for this ballclub.
Hanley Ramirez will presumably move over to third baseman, and that was a necessary condition in order for this deal to even take place. Han-Ram has awful range and is regarded as one of the worst defensive shortstops in the league. A move to third would ensure that he gets less opportunities to mess up, and range isn’t put at as much of a premium at the hot corner as it is at short. Hanley also possesses a strong arm, which is definitely a plus at the position. As I said in the paragraph above, Reyes is about an average defensive player; which is a huge upgrade for the team at the most important defensive position on the diamond.
Wahoo’s On First has a genius Simple WAR Calculator that was developed by Editor Lewie Pollis, and it uses the legendary Bradly Woodrum’s “Should Hit” calculator. I would suggest clicking on the link above and enjoy playing with this simple, yet effective calculator to your heart’s content; it provides a few hours of blissful, nerdy entertainment.
Anyway, I decided to use this crafty tool in order to find out what to expect from Jose Reyes next season. He should be worth about $18.8 million dollars and 3.8 WAR, which means that this deal was a success. I used the Bill James projections and plugged them in. These numbers are sustainable and actually reflect what would be considered Reyes on a usual day. There is always the chance that he plays like the 15th best positional player in a season, like he did last season, so it really does seem like the Marlins genuinely bagged themselves a good deal.
I used a simple Marcel projection and plugged in the numbers, and the same result came up; 3.8 WAR. I used Bill James projection, the 2011 season, and the 2010 season as the three seasons; I wanted to use a scenario with a conservative projection, a best-case one, and one in a down year. It seems like Reyes is about a 4 WAR player, and, with the added value of the win, this deal seems like a nice one overall for the Marlins. I was a little more critical of the Heath Bell signing, but this was certainly a deal to be happy about if you are a Marlins fan.
And really, the WAR/$ rate increases each season; so it is plausible to think that 3 WAR will “get it done” a few years down the road with respect to this contract. Jose Reyes can easily accomplish this, and he should have a few 4-5 WAR seasons that will boost his value even further. I mean, this is a guy who plays at a tough position and can still hit. Most shortstops hit around 85-90 wRC+, which means that Reyes’s offensive value easily shatters what most of his peers are doing. The main problem is that his leg injuries will most likely effect his speed down the road, but he should still be worth more than “expected” based on the financial terms of this contract.
For more great articles and upper-echelon insight on the Miami Marlins, be sure to check out the always-interesting Marlin Maniac.