Arizona Diamondbacks sign Jason Kubel
What the heck just happened here? The Arizona Diamondbacks have, although it isn’t official yet, signed former Twins outfielder Jason Kubel to a two-year deal worth $15 million. The D’Backs already have a very good trio of outfielders in Justin Upton, Chris Young, and defensive wizard Gerardo Parra; adding Kubel is a waste of money and resources. A move to first isn’t feasible, because that’s where young power-guy Paul Goldschmidt is. Matt Myers of ESPN the Mag, the great Jonah Keri, ESPN Mag senior writer Jorge Arangure, and I all voiced our displeasure for this quizzical deal. Myers tweeted, “Kubel signing is one of most bizarre I can remember. Just an awful fit.”
Not only do the Diamondbacks have no place for Kubel, but he isn’t that good of a player to begin with. For the bargain price of $7.5 million a year, Kevin Towers is getting a corner outfielder who has been worth 2 WAR just once in his career (2.7 WAR in 2009). He has a solid bat, but he is a very poor defensive player who offers no value as a baserunner. Kubel has pop, but he doesn’t have as much power as people say he does.
For some reason, Bill James- well, Baseball Info Solutions- believes that Kubel will have a .351 wOBA next season. That seems like confusing optimism to me, because he has only had a wOBA over .350 once in his career. And that was in, you guessed it, that magical 2009 season. So using the Simple WAR Calculator, we find that James sees Kubel as a 1.1 WAR player. He matched that total last season, so it seems like James isn’t being too nice after all.
However, Kubel’s fielding flattered him last season, and his UZR was better than usually marks he “earns” year-to-year. The actual reason why the totals flattered him has to do with the fact that he started in just 57 games anywhere in the outfield last season. I graded his defense as a 6 of 7 and was nice enough to give him a baserunning grade of 4 of 5. Kubel is a 1.6 WAR player at best, and he is really just a 1 WAR player who is worth about $5.5 million.
I don’t expect a decline between these two seasons, so it looks like the Arizona Diamondbacks overpaid by about $4 million for the services of Jason Kubel. That’s actually worse than it sounds, because he might not even be a 1 WAR player. The team doesn’t have much space for him, and he is a slugger-utility player on an NL club, which is as ridiculous as it sounds in your head. I mean, why would an NL team utilize a guy who would only have value to them if they had a DH?
This is one of the most dumbfounding deals you can make as a GM, because you overpaid for a subpar player who you didn’t even need. The Diamondbacks should have stayed put, because their roster is filled with nine position players who shouldn’t be usurped at this point. The jury is still out on Aaron Hill, but there obviously isn’t a real upgrade for the team at second. The Diamondbacks basically wasted their money on a guy who will either never receive enough plate appearances to make this deal worth it, or he will take away valuable PAs from much better players.
Even if Jason Kubel gets 600 chances at the dish, he still won’t make this deal worth it. If he does get an abundant amount of PAs, it will only be worse for the team; better players like Parra and Goldschmidt will have their opportunities sapped. Kubel is a solid hitter and could provide value to an AL team. or a team bereft of corner outfield options in the NL, but he doesn’t fit with Arizona at all. This move didn’t make sense for the team, and it really doesn’t matter which way you look at it. It was a waste of resources in the purest form. While this won’t be an albatross of a contract by any means, the deal just doesn’t make sense. It isn’t the worst possible move you can make, you can sign Barry Zito for $100 million, but the Diamondbacks decided that they felt the best way to manage their resources is to give a surplus player $15 million.
Before you close out of this window, I want to leave you on this note- or tweet, rather- said by Jonah Keri, “Favre would make more sense for the Diamondbacks than Kubel.”