Remember Yu Darvish?

This is a piece I wrote six years in the future. 

Remember when the world was fixated on Twitter, ESPN, and other sports-related sites in anticipation of an announcement on Yu Darvish?  It feels so long ago now.  Sure, Darvish has had a decent career with the Rangers, but as we enter his final year under contract with the team, I thought it fitting to take a look back.

Darvish was an absolute phenom in Japan.  In five seasons with the Nippon Ham Fighters, Darvish posted an impressive 1.72 ERA.  He struck out 1,083 batters in 1,024.1 innings giving himself a 9.5 K/9 ratio.  Darvish was nearly un-hittable in Japan, yielding just 218 runs, 39 home runs, and holding batters to 6.1 hits per 9 innings.  He won over the hopes and dreams of baseball fans everywhere when it was announce late in 2011 that the Ham Fighters would listen to bids from teams and choose a winner that would be allowed exclusive negotiating rights.  That team ended up being the Texas Rangers.  The bid the Rangers submitted was a reported $51.7 million just to talk to Darvish.

The Rangers eventually signed Darvish to a lavish 7-year, $105 million contract.  All of which was guaranteed money of course.  Looking back though, was Darvish really ever worth a combined $156 million?  In the six years he’s been with the Rangers, he has helped the team to four play-off appearances and one ALCS appearance, but the Rangers failed to make it back to the World Series after back-to-back appearances in the two years prior to Darvish’s arrival.  That of course is not Darvish’s fault.  That was the Rangers’ fault for over-committing themselves to Darvish financially, thus limiting their ability to sign other players to help build around.

In six years, Darvish has posted a total of 12.7 WAR, has a career ERA of 3.42, and has struck out 900 batters.  These are very solid numbers for any Major Leaguer, but the cost verse benefit has to be analyzed.  Each of Darvish’s wins above replacement cost the Rangers a little over $12 million.  Could they have found that production elsewhere for less money?  Definitely.

Yet, the problem isn’t with the Rangers and their bid for Darvish back in 2011.  The problem was with the process then.  As you all know, we now have an international draft, but in 2011 teams had to bid, auction-style, for the right to even negotiate with international players playing on teams overseas.  The $51 million the Rangers paid to negotiate was nothing more than a ransom, a waste of money.

Yu Darvish is still just 31 years old, and he can still contribute.  He will get another contract, but probably not from the Rangers.  Rumors are already flying that Darvish will be dealt before the July trade deadline this season.  However, the Rangers have already suffered the cost of Darvish’s original contract.  Consider this; In the same time Darvish was posting 12.7 WAR for an average of $12 million per win above replacement, Matt Moore of the Rays posted 14.5 wAR for under $1 million per win.  The Rays broke through two years ago and won the World Series with Moore winning three games in the postseason.

So while the large-market teams often have the ability to sign the big name players and pay the big money, the small-market teams have the strategy to overcome this inequity.  The Rangers were victims of the system.  They had the money and felt they needed to spend it on Darvish.  With the hype coming out of Japan, someone was going to pay for him.  Why not the Rangers?  Unfortunately for Texas, the signing may have held them back from additional success.  As the final year of Darvish’s contract with Texas unfolds, it will be interesting to see where Darvish ends up, how the Rangers replace him, and how much trade value he may carry.

I truly hope Darvish performs better than I predicted above, even though the above numbers are not terrible.  This is less a commentary on Darvish than a commentary on international bidding for player contracts.