San Diego Padres acquire Carlos Quentin

The wait is over, and Carlos Quentin is finally on a new Major League ballclub after months of rumors. Quentin took off out of nowhere in his first season in Chicago back in 2008, and the right fielder was worth 4.8 WAR and hit 36 homers with a .394 OBP. His wRC+ was 151 that season, and he has never had a wRC+ under 100 during his time with the White Sox. However, he was worth -0.5 and 0.0 WAR respectively in the years 2009 and 2010 due to some awful defensive play. Quentin is now a San Diego Padre, and the Padres traded pitching prospects Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez for the former Diamondback.

Last year, Quentin’s defense was about average, and his WAR climbed back up to a total of 2.6. His power numbers never changed during his last three seasons, but his strikeout rate has increased. Quentin has a career BABIP of .253, and his BABIP increased throughout these three seasons to a normal .261 after a .221 BABIP in 2009.

Before taking a deeper look at the Padres new outfielder, it’s time to examine the two prospects involved in this deal. Simon Castro has a good fastball and a plus slider, but his changeup definitely needs some work at this point. Castro was once regarded as the Padres best prospect, but the acquisitions of other top prospects and Castro’s poor performance in AAA Tucson last season hurt his stock. He’s still a good prospect, but the only legit pitch he has right now is his fastball. Another thing to watch for is his inconsistent command, and he had a 5.63 ERA in 115 combined AA and AAA innings last season. Castro started off in AAA and was demoted after allowing 29 runs in 25.2 innings; the Padres wanted to boost his confidence. He still has immense upside, and he seems like one of those pitchers who will do better in a new environment.

Pedro Hernandez isn’t nearly as good as Castro, and he is only an average prospect overall. There is a chance that he ends up being a fifth starter or long reliever, because he displays good control and throws strikes. Hernandez doesn’t really have any upside, but he went from high-A to AAA last season for the Padres and had a 3.49 ERA in 116 innings. Hernandez’s fastball and curveball are both fairly average, but he possesses a solid changeup.

Using the Simple WAR Calculator developed by Lewie Pollis, we find that Bill James believes Carlos Quentin will be worth 1.3 WAR next season. The fans who submitted projections on FanGraphs have him as a 2.1 WAR player, and I see Quentin as a 1.5-2 WAR player. He gives the Padres a solid bat, but he can’t field and offers no value as a baserunner.

The White Sox were able to acquire a very good pitching prospect and a mediocre one for an outfielder who is league-average and needed a change of scenery. The Padres are a team that need all the offense they can get, and Quentin’s power (career ISO of .238) is especially appetizing. His defense is quite putrid, but he can be a 3 WAR player; provided he doesn’t have UZR totals that mirror his defensive performances in 2009 and 2010. There isn’t a way to fault either team for this trade, but I would take the White Sox if I had to pick a winner. The Padres will probably pay him $7.5 million in arbitration, and that equates to a 1.5 WAR- only a little below his projected value.

Be sure to check out all of Call to the Pen’s transaction breakdowns for the 2011-12 offseason.